Are hyperscalers’ debt the new Treasuries?

S&P 500 -0.18% to 7,709.96

US 10-year yield +6.4 basis points to 4.681%

Spot gold -0.15% to $4,239.23 an ounce

DXY +0.26% to 99.95

What to look out for today

Companies reporting on Friday, 7 August: PPL, Take-Two Interactive Software, Vistra

Key data to move markets today

EU: Germany’s Imports, Exports and Industrial Production

USA: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Labour Force Participation, Average Weekly Hours, Average Hourly Earnings and U6 Underemployment Rate

Global Macro Updates

July nonfarm payrolls preview. The July US nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release today at 8:30 am EDT. Consensus expectations point to an increase of 80,000 jobs m/o/m, following a 57,000 gain in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are projected to rise by a further 0.3% m/o/m.

The June employment report showed headline payroll growth below consensus expectations, accompanied by downward revisions to the May and April figures. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.2% from 4.3%, although the move was driven in part by a notable decline in the labour-force participation rate.

Recent labour-market data have presented a mixed picture. The June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings slightly below consensus. The employment component of the July Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey improved to 52.8, moving back into expansionary territory from 49.7 in June. By contrast, the employment component of the July ISM services survey returned to contractionary territory. In addition, the ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls rising by 44,000 in July, the softest reading since January, following a 95,000 increase in June.

Analyst previews generally point to still-resilient headline job creation, supported by low initial jobless claims during the survey reference period. ADP’s weekly private-employment indicator has also remained positive, although it has moderated in recent readings. Education and health services are expected to continue leading employment gains, while leisure and hospitality employment could rebound after declining by 61,000 in June, the largest monthly drop since 2020.

The unemployment rate will likely be a key focus after last month’s decline was driven by an unexpectedly sharp fall in labour-force participation. Most previews anticipate at least a partial rebound in participation, although the unemployment rate may not fully return to 4.3%.

US Treasury keeps auction sizes unchanged, as expected. The US Department of the Treasury’s Q3 quarterly refunding statement was broadly in line with expectations. It maintained issuance at $125 billion, including $58 billion in three-year notes, $42 billion in ten-year notes and $25 billion in 30-year bonds. This marked the tenth consecutive quarter with no change to these auction sizes.

The statement retained the longstanding guidance that the Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and floating-rate note auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. Analyst previews had suggested that the Treasury could begin preparing the market for eventual increases in auction sizes, which are expected during H1 2027. However, there was also a view that officials may have sought to avoid unsettling the market following the recent bond-market selloff.

The accompanying Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee statement said the Treasury remains adequately funded for the remainder of fiscal year 2026. The funding gap is expected to widen in fiscal years 2027 and 2028. The committee added that the Treasury should consider updating its forward-guidance language to preserve flexibility, while noting that the May statement suggested such a change should occur a few quarters in advance.

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.85%
Nasdaq 100 -0.39%
S&P 500 -0.18%, with 8 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 down

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened higher on Thursday and was initially on pace for its longest winning streak of the year. However, weakness in Salesforce, Boeing, UnitedHealth and other constituents weighed on performance, leaving the Dow down 464.02 points, or -0.85%, at the close.

The Nasdaq Composite traded close to unchanged for much of the session before ending -0.06% lower, pressured by declines in Sandisk and Western Digital. Both companies reported strong beats, yet their results fell short of blue-sky expectations. The S&P 500 also edged lower, slipping -0.18%.

In corporate news, Germany’s RWE became the latest major energy developer to withdraw from the US offshore wind market. It agreed to a $1.22 billion settlement with the Interior Department to relinquish its offshore wind leases. The agreement covers leases off the coasts of New York, California and Louisiana, the company said Thursday.

Alphabet sold $25 billion of investment-grade bonds after attractive yield concessions helped generate one of the largest order books of the year for AI-related debt. The offering drew roughly $115 billion of peak demand, according to people familiar with the matter, ranking behind only Oracle’s record $129 billion February deal and Amazon’s approximately $126 billion March sale. 

Alphabet issued notes across 10 tranches, with maturities ranging from two to 40 years. The yield premium on the longest-dated tranche was set at 1.3 percentage points over Treasuries, tighter than initial price talk of 1.55 percentage points. Alphabet was one of eight companies issuing investment-grade bonds on Thursday, bringing weekly volume to $80 billion, the third-highest total this year, according to Bloomberg news.

Corporate Earnings Reports

Posted on Thursday, 6 August from The Pulse, our real-time AI-driven news tool. Available exclusively on the EXANTE Web Platform

Airbnb reported Q2 earnings after the close. Revenue was $3.6bn, up +17% y/y, beating the $3.58bn estimate. EPS of $1.37 beat the $1.25 estimate, rising +33% y/y. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.3bn, up +21% y/y, vs $1.23bn expected. Gross Booking Value reached $27.2bn, beating $26.42bn, up +16% y/y. Nights and Experiences Booked were 148.3mn, up +10% y/y, above the 145.44mn estimate. Net income was $816mn vs $777mn expected, while free cash flow of $1.3bn missed estimates of $1.43bn but was up +30% y/y. The company raised its full-year guidance, expecting revenue growth of at least mid teens and an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 35.5%. For Q3, revenue is forecast at $4.69bn-$4.77bn, above the $4.61bn consensus. CEO Brian Chesky commented that the company delivered some of its strongest results in years, with momentum accelerating in Q2 as they exceeded their outlook across every key metric.

Akamai reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.1bn (est. $1.09bn), up +5% y/y, and adj. EPS of $1.59 (est. $1.57), down -8% y/y. Security revenue rose +10% y/y to $604mn, while cloud infrastructure services revenue missed at $99mn but grew +39% y/y. FY26 guidance was mixed: revenue $4.45bn-$4.53bn, adj. EPS $6.40-$7.05. The company disclosed over $2.8bn in multiyear cloud commitments this year, including a $600mn, four-year GPU services deal with a US robotics-focused tech firm. CFO said this "brings our recently announced major wins to over $2.8 billion this year, a huge validation of our platform." GPU demand remains exceptionally strong with all capacity sold out, and CrowdStrike has switched to Akamai for web security.

The Trade Desk reported Q2 revenue of $715mn (vs est. $751mn), up +3% y/y, and adjusted EPS of $0.34 (vs est. $0.40), down -17% y/y. EBITDA was $241mn (vs est. $261mn). Q3 guidance was well below consensus: revenue at least $650mn (vs est. $805mn) and EBITDA ~$160mn (vs est. $341mn). Customer retention exceeded 95% and the company repurchased $78mn of shares. CEO Jeff Green commented: “This quarter did not meet the standard we set for ourselves.”

Cloudflare reported Q2 revenue of $696.1mn (vs $666mn estimate), up +36% y/y, and adjusted EPS of $0.29 (vs $0.27), up +38% y/y. Operating income was $96.1mn. Free cash flow rose +69% y/y to $56.4mn. The company raised its FY26 revenue guidance to $2.86bn-$2.87bn (vs $2.81bn estimate) and EPS to $1.25-$1.26. Q3 revenue guidance of $736mn-$737mn also beat estimates. CEO Matthew Prince said the quarter was ‘highlighted by revenue accelerating to $696.1mn, up 36% y/y, and record growth in total paying customers, large customers, and developers on our platform.’ Separately, Cloudflare launched programmable stablecoin wallets for AI agents via the x402 protocol, enabling autonomous payments for APIs and content.

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 +0.35%
DAX +0.05%
FTSE 100 -0.19%

Commodities

Gold spot -0.15% to $4,239.23 an ounce
Silver spot -0.81% to $61.52 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate +4.22% to $78.23 a barrel
Brent crude +5.24% to $83.58 a barrel

Spot gold was slightly lower on Thursday at $4,239.23 per ounce on profit-taking, down -0.15%, after reaching its highest level since 18 June earlier in the session.

Bullion remained -24.23% below its late-January record high of $5,594.82 per ounce.

Spot silver declined -0.81% to $61.52 an ounce.

WTI and Brent settled more than four percent higher on Thursday as markets continued to await developments on a potential US - Iran deal.

Brent crude futures rose $4.16, or +5.24%, to settle at $83.58 per barrel. WTI futures settled $3.17 higher, or +4.22%, at $78.23 per barrel.

Iranian officials said that they are seeking fees equivalent to 5% to 7% of cargo prices from ships using the Strait of Hormuz, while Oman was said to be seeking a lower level. Both benchmarks moved higher shortly before 12:00 pm EDT after reports that the proposed Oman - Iran arrangement to manage the Strait of Hormuz was not workable because of US sanctions and restrictive insurance clauses on any payments, according to Reuters sources. Around the same time, other reports indicated that Iran wants to restrict US and Israeli ships from passing through the Strait.

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandib Strait declined sharply from Tuesday to Wednesday after several vessels were attacked in the region. Only 2 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 8 on Tuesday. Bab el-Mandib traffic fell to 2 ships from 20, according to Kpler data.

On Thursday, there were reports of an attempted tanker attack near the coast of Oman and of a missile fired toward the Red Sea.

China increased purchases of Russian crude, with Reuters tanker data and shipping sources indicating that Sinopec ramped up orders of Far East Russian ESPO crude to offset lost Middle East supply.

Ukraine struck two additional Russian refineries on Thursday. These included one of Russia’s largest refineries in the Yaroslavl region, with capacity of 300,000 bpd, and the Bashneft-Novoil refinery in Bashkortostan.

Russian seaborne exports of refined petroleum products fell in July to the lowest level in at least 10 years, while crude exports remained elevated despite easing from a June peak, according to S&P Global cargo-tracking data, as Ukraine continued strikes on Russian refining infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude oil to Asia in July for a second month, as expected, as spot premiums eased on slow demand despite supply disruptions tied to the US-led war with Iran.

The July OSP for flagship Arab Light crude has been set ⁠at a premium of $9.50 a barrel above the average Dubai and Oman quotes, $6 a barrel lower than the OSP for June. July OSPs for other Saudi grades to Asia also fell by $6 per barrel from the previous month.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 6 August 2026

Currencies

EUR -0.28% to $1.1520
GBP -0.04% to $1.3452
Bitcoin -0.43% to $64,401.81
Ethereum -0.10% to $1,905.14

The US dollar advanced against the yen and the euro on Thursday, extending the gains recorded in the previous session.

The dollar rose +0.49% to ¥158.46, leaving it on track for a weekly gain of +0.14%. Joint Tokyo - Washington intervention has driven the US dollar down from near a four-decade high above ¥163 a week ago Thursday to a 13-week low of ¥155.20 on Monday.

Against the euro, the dollar traded +0.28% higher at $1.1520.

Sterling slipped -0.04% to $1.3452.

Fixed Income

US 10-year Treasury +6.4 basis points to 4.681%
German 10-year Bund +2.7 bps to 3.160%
UK 10-year Gilt +4.7 basis points to 4.942%

US Treasury yields rose across the curve on Thursday ahead of Friday’s closely watched July employment report.

The 2-year Treasury yield, which typically tracks Fed funds rate expectations, increased +6.5 bps to 4.681%.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose +6.4 bps to 4.681%.

The 2s10s yield curve stood at 42.3 bps.

According to the CME Fedwatch tool, Fed funds futures priced a 54.5% probability of a Fed rate hike at the 16 September meeting, down from 63.4% last week.

Data released Thursday showed that initial jobless claims increased slightly last week, while layoffs fell to a two-year low in July, consistent with a stable labour market. Separate data showed that worker productivity expanded faster than expected in Q2, helping to limit gains in labor costs.

Across the Atlantic, Germany’s yield curve steepened on Thursday.

German 10-year yields traded at 3.160%, up +2.7 bps, while 2-year yields declined -2.5 bps to 2.769%.

On the supply side, France sold nearly €8 billion of 10-year bonds on Thursday. Demand remained resilient, although borrowing costs rose. France sold May 2036 paper at an average yield of 3.737% on Thursday, up from 3.680% at the July auction, and November 2036 bonds at an average yield of 3.900%, up from 3.730% last month. 

French 10-year OAT yields traded +2.7 bps higher on the day at 3.920%, while Italian 10-year yields were +3.0 bps higher at 3.902%.

Concerns over European governments’ long-term financing needs, combined with volatile domestic politics, have weighed on French bonds. OATs have been the weakest performers among G7 debt markets since the end of June.

French 10-year OAT yields are +37.3 bps higher since the end of June, compared with +31.5 bps for Italian 10-year BTP yields. UK gilt yields, +17.3 bps, have been the best-performing bonds over the same period.

Spain also sold nearly €2 billion of 10-year debt on Thursday at an average yield of 3.542%, up from 3.395% at the previous July sale, along with €1.85 billion of 5-year debt at an average yield of 3.005%, up from 2.835% in July.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 6 August 2026

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