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IMF warning to governments on labour markets and future tax receipts.
A drop in confidence and consumers cutting back poses risks to stocks.
A slower cadence of rate rises offers little relief from restrictive yields.
Weaker payrolls and softer inflation complicate September’s hawkish consensus.
Fiscal promises, parliamentary gridlock and the 2027 election collide in the OAT market
Modest headline cooling conceals stronger employment and sharp cost pressure
Soft hiring and wages make an October pause easier to defend
Reduced urgency may support a tactical rates rally
Revised calculations cool PCE without extinguishing domestic demand
Faltering consumers support the disinflation narrative… until resilient corporate pricing power spoils the rally
Supply security looks manageable in the base case, but a cold winter and prolonged Hormuz disruption make the right-hand tail increasingly expensive
