How close is “very soon”?

Corporate Earnings News

Companies reporting on Tuesday, 10^th March: Oracle, Franco Nevada, Toll Brothers

Key data to move markets today

EU: German Trade Balance and Eurozone EcoFin Meeting

USA: ADP Employment Change 4-Week Average and Existing Home Sales Change

CHINA: Exports, Imports and Trade Balance

Global Macro Updates

Lack of clarity leaves oil markets in turmoil. WTI crude surged over 35% last week amid the escalating Iran conflict, briefly spiking to $119 per barrel, the highest since 2022, before retreating below $100/barrel. The initial rally followed reports of Israeli strikes on Iranian energy assets and widespread Middle Eastern production cuts exceeding 6 million bpd. Major Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, and Kuwait, have reduced output, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually halted, rapidly diminishing storage capacity. Global energy and commodity market intelligence provider Argus estimates offline production at 6.2–6.9 million bpd.

Amid persistent uncertainty, policymakers are reportedly exploring relief measures. Reuters reports the US administration is considering options such as restricting exports, intervening in futures markets, waiving select federal taxes, and easing Jones Act shipping rules. Other possible moves, according to Bloomberg news, could include releasing emergency stockpiles, pausing federal gas tax collections — something Congress would have to approve — and the Treasury Department’s involvement in the oil futures market. However, the administration recently dismissed futures market intervention and export restrictions face opposition from domestic producers.

Analysts have stated that unless oil prices remain elevated for an extended period, inflationary impacts could be contained. However, the full economic effects remain uncertain given the unclear conflict timeline and limited diplomatic solutions.

Despite these hopes, Iran appears unwilling to de-escalate, with the IRGC aiming to reinforce deterrence. CNN cited an Iranian official threatening a ‘new phase’ following strikes on energy infrastructure. On Monday Tehran announced Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, defying Washington’s opposition. However, President Trump said during a press conference yesterday that the war against Iran was “very complete, pretty much” and there was “nothing left in a military sense” in the country. He said the military had achieved an 83% drop in drone launches and a more than 90% decline in the Iranian missile launchers.This comes after the US has, according to a report from the Financial Times, struck more than 5,000 targets in Iran in the first 10 days of the Middle East war. This comment from President Trump prompted a sell-off in energy markets, sending the prices of Brent crude and WTI below $90 a barrel. Stocks closed higher as oil prices eased. These prices had initially eased to below $100 a barrel following a statement from the Group of Seven finance ministers that they were ready to take any steps needed to support energy supply, including releasing strategic oil reserves, although the group isn’t at the point of doing so yet. The president said he didn’t believe the conflict would be over this week, but insisted the operation was ahead of schedule. 

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.50%
Nasdaq 100 +1.32%
S&P 500 +0.83%, with 9 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 up

After a dramatic 31% surge in US oil prices following the opening of futures markets on Sunday, the gains swiftly reversed on Monday, marking one of the most remarkable turnarounds in trading history.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced an intraday swing exceeding 1,000 points, ultimately closing Monday 239 points higher or +0.50%. The S&P 500 recovered from early losses to finish up +0.83%, while the Nasdaq Composite registered a +1.38% gain.

In corporate news, Apple’s ongoing challenges with artificial intelligence are affecting its product roadmap, resulting in the postponement of a long-anticipated smart home display until later this year, according to sources cited by Bloomberg news.

Anthropic PBC has initiated legal action against the US Department of Defense following its designation as a risk to the US supply chain, escalating a significant dispute regarding the department’s concerns over the company’s technology safeguards.

Live Nation Entertainment has reached an agreement with the US Department of Justice permitting it to retain ownership of Ticketmaster.

Nasdaq announced a collaboration with cryptocurrency exchange Kraken to advance its initiative for 24/7 tokenised stock trading.

Roche reported that a combination of its new breast cancer treatment and Pfizer’s Ibrance did not achieve the primary endpoint in a recent clinical trial.

S&P 500 Best performing sector

Communication Services +1.13%, with Live Nation Entertainment +6.19%, Alphabet +2.66%, and Match +2.10%

S&P 500 Worst performing sector

Financials -0.52%, with Arthur J. Gallagher -4.54%, Brown & Brown -3.35%, and Fiserv -2.87%

Mega Caps

Alphabet +2.66%, Amazon +0.17%, Apple +0.94%, Meta Platforms +0.39%, Microsoft +0.11%, Nvidia +2.68%, and Tesla +0.49%

Information Technology

Best performer: Teradyne +8.57%
Worst performer: Cisco Systems -3.09%

Materials and Mining

Best performer: Albemarle +4.49%
Worst performer: CF Industries -4.09%

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 -0.98%
DAX -0.77%
FTSE 100 -0.34%

Commodities

Gold spot -0.64% to $5,136.91 an ounce
Silver spot +3.17% to $87.01 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate -3.73% to $87.87 a barrel
Brent crude -3.36% to $89.79 a barrel

Gold prices declined by just under one percent on Monday as a spike in energy costs raised inflation concerns, dimming the prospect of Fed rate cuts. Spot gold ended the trading day -0.64%, settling at $5,136.91 per ounce.

The US dollar gained strength as oil prices surged toward $120 per barrel earlier in the session, prompting investors to seek liquidity amid concerns that an extended conflict in the Middle East could significantly disrupt energy supplies and adversely impact global economic growth.

In contrast, spot silver advanced +3.17% to $87.01 per ounce. Geopolitical risk and rising industrial demand for silver in electronics and renewable energy have been driving investors to silver. 

Oil prices declined on Monday following remarks by the US President indicating that the war could soon come to an end.

Prices experienced further declines in post-settlement trading after it was reported that sources suggested the Trump administration was considering additional easing of sanctions on Russian oil as a measure to stabilise global energy prices.

Earlier in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow was prepared to supply oil and natural gas to Europe.

During Monday’s session, oil prices surged by as much as 26.1%. At the close, Brent crude futures settled down $3.12, or -3.36%, at $89.79 per barrel. US WTI crude declined by $3.40, or -3.73%, to $87.87 per barrel.

Brent reached an intraday high of $116.67 per barrel and WTI touched $115.07, both benchmarks hitting their highest levels since June 2022 and approaching record highs set in July 2008.

The retreat from these intraday highs was attributed to multiple factors, including reports that the US and other G7 countries were considering the release of oil from strategic petroleum reserves.

In addition to disruptions in energy supplies, oil prices were buoyed earlier in the session after hardline factions in Iran demonstrated their support for the new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, diminishing hopes for a swift end to the Middle East conflict.

Saudi Aramco began reducing output at two oilfields, joining similar cuts by the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, as ongoing shipment blockages strained available storage.

The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz; however, a Greek-operated oil tanker managed to transit the passage with a cargo of Saudi crude, indicating that some commercial vessels continue to attempt navigation of this critical route.

According to data analytics firm Kpler, even if the strait were to reopen on Tuesday, it would likely require six to seven weeks for exports from the Gulf to return to full capacity.

Saudi Aramco, which has the capability to redirect some crude via the Red Sea port of Yanbu, has offered over four million barrels of Saudi crude through rare tenders to mitigate the impact of the Hormuz closure.

In response to escalating oil prices driven by the Iran conflict, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a series of measures, including temporary school closures and increased remote work for office employees, to reduce fuel consumption and curb government spending.

Similarly, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban imposed a cap on fuel prices following an emergency government meeting on Monday and called on the European Union to suspend sanctions on Russian energy linked to Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Note: As of 4 pm EST 9 March 2026

Currencies

EUR +0.14% to $1.1635
GBP +0.19% to $1.3436
Bitcoin +1.02% to $68,978.61
Ethereum +2.32% to $2,029.33

The US dollar relinquished early gains on Monday. The euro strengthened +0.14% to $1.1635 after having fallen to its lowest level in over three months at $1.1505 earlier in the session. Additionally, the dollar declined by -0.08% against the Japanese yen, reaching ¥157.66, after touching a six-week high earlier in the day.

Sterling also reversed its earlier losses, rising +0.19% against the dollar to trade at $1.3436. 

For the week ending 6^th March, options pricing data revealed that investors increased their long dollar positions and expanded short positions in the euro. In contrast, analysts noted that, in the futures market, investors reduced their short dollar positions. 

Fixed Income

US 10-year Bond -3.3 basis points to 4.100%
German 10-year +0.1 basis points to 2.862%
UK 10-year gilt +1.3 basis points to 4.586%

US Treasury yields declined on Monday as oil prices moderated from their earlier surge.

Last week, both the two-year and 10-year yields experienced their largest weekly increases in yield since last April's tariff turmoil, reflecting heightened concerns over the duration of the conflict with Iran.

The two-year note yield was down -2.7 bps at 3.550%, after having reached 3.635% earlier in the session, marking the highest level since 20^th November.

The yield on the US 10-year note decreased -3.3 bps to 4.100%, after earlier trading at 4.216%, the highest since 9^th February. On the long end of the curve, the 30-year yield fell -4.4 bps to 4.717%.

The yield curve between 2- and 10-year notes flattened by 0.6 bps, reaching 55.0 bps.

This week, the demand for Treasuries will be assessed with $119 billion in coupon-bearing debt auctions. The offerings include $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday, and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

Global yields surged last week, as the ongoing conflict with Iran has driven oil prices higher and exacerbated fears of inflation, which may prompt the Fed and other central banks to pause monetary easing. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 37.8 bps of cuts in 2026, lower than the 61.9 bps priced in the previous week. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 2.7% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the 18^th March FOMC meeting, down from 3.6% a week ago.

Germany's 10-year bond rebounded on Monday as oil prices pulled back from their highest levels since 2022.

The yield on Germany's 10-year government bond edged +0.1 bps higher to 2.862%. Earlier in the session, it reached 2.931%, the highest point in a year, and remains over 40 bps higher since the onset of the war.

Germany's two-year bond yield, sensitive to interest rates, climbed +9.3 bps to 2.327%, after earlier reaching 2.476%, the highest since August 2024. On the long end of the curve, the 30-year yield advanced +0.9 bps to 3.430%.

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield slipped -0.8 bps to 3.630%, leaving the spread over Bunds at 76.8 bps. France’s 10-year OAT yield declined -1.3 bps to 3.520%.

Money market traders have now fully priced in a single quarter-point rate hike by the ECB in 2026, assigning roughly a 25% probability to a second increase. Before the conflict, markets had anticipated about a 40% likelihood of a rate cut by year-end.

Note: As of 4 pm EST 9 March 2026

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