Is a Hormuz deal over?

S&P 500 -0.06% to 7,753.11

US 10-year yield +4.25 basis points to 4.701%

Spot gold +1.12% to $4,390.29 an ounce

DXY +0.17% to 99.81

What to look out for today

Companies reporting on Tuesday, 11 August: CoreWeave, Super Micro Computer, Lumentum Holdings

Key data to move markets today

USA: ADP Employment Change 4-week Average and Existing Home Sales Change

Global Macro Updates

A more positive view of the eurozone? The Sentix index for the ​eurozone rose to 0.9 points in ​August from -3.1 in July. The assessment of the current situation rose sharply to -8.0 from -14.8 in July, while expectations rose to +10.3 points from 9.3. The index has now increased for four ​straight months and is at its highest level since before the US-led war with Iran began at the end of February. 

Sentix said that although the confidence shock caused by the war with Iran appeared to have been partially absorbed, high energy costs and subdued order books remained ​a drag on ​the outlook. The situation also improved in the eurozone’s largest economy, with Sentix's ⁠headline index for Germany ring to -11.9 points from -19.4. This was its third consecutive increase. "Further economic stabilisation is ​on ⁠the horizon for Germany," Sentix said, pointing to stronger economic data and second-quarter growth of 0.2% that helped the ⁠economy ​avoid another recession. 

However, according to preliminary data, Germany's trade deficit with China widened in the first half of 2026. According to a Reuters report, German exports to China fell over 12% year-on-year to just under €37 billion between January and June as Chinese firms cut reliance on European imports, making China, the world’s second largest economy, only the ninth-biggest market for German goods.

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.11%
Nasdaq 100 -0.34%
S&P 500 -0.06%, with 6 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 up

Markets were down on Monday after US President Donald Trump demanded that Iran pay compensation for the people he said it had killed in wars, attacks and protests. Iran had previously called for the US to meet conditions, including compensating Iran for damage caused since the beginning of the war with the US at the end of February. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was -0.11%, or down 60.95 points, to 53,975.98. The Nasdaq Composite fell -0.32%, or down 85.26 points, to 26,605.36, while the S&P 500 slipped -0.06%, or -4.53 points, to 7,753.11.

In corporate news, in a bid to capitalise on the AI boom, Intel announced plans to offer $15 billion worth of new stock in its first public share sale since its listing in 1971. Its shares fell 4.1% on this news.

Nvidia ended the day -2.9% due to reports that it signed memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to launch compute financing platforms aimed at raising over $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure. However, as noted by Bloomberg news, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued guidance on Monday that determined that data-centre securitisations are not traditional asset-backed securities under Exchange Act rules, exempting operators from risk-retention requirements and simplifying debt sales to fund AI infrastructure expansion. 

Separately, as reported by the Financial Times, Nvidia was in talks to provide a massive guarantee for a 10-gigawatt data centre project in Ohio leased to OpenAI, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Apple was downgraded to an underperform rating at Jefferies.

Boeing will sell several of its units that specialise in developing technologies for flying taxis and drones to Archer Aviation as the US planemaker focusses on its core commercial and defence units.

A San Francisco-based 9th US circuit court of appeals rejected an appeal by Meta and TikTok seeking to overturn a lower court ruling requiring them to face more than 3,000 lawsuits. The lawsuits against Meta Platforms, Google, TikTok and Snapchat claim they designed their products to be addictive to young users.

Barrick Mining reported a rise in Q2 profits due to higher bullion prices and struck a $1.95 billion deal with Newmont to settle disputes over Nevada Gold Mines. 

Corporate Earnings Reports

Posted on Monday, 10 August from The Pulse, our real-time AI-driven news tool. Available exclusively on the EXANTE Web Platform

Rocket Lab reported Q2 2026 earnings with revenue of $234mn vs $232mn expected, up +62% y/y, and an EPS loss of $0.08 vs a $0.07 expected loss. Backlog hit a record $2.36bn, up +137% y/y. Q3 revenue guidance of $258mn exceeded the $238mn estimate, though EBITDA guidance of a $20mn loss was wider than the $12mn expected. The company unveiled GHOST, a containerised launch system for Electron and HASTE rockets deployable from global locations, with first operations targeted for 2027. It established Rocket Lab Germany GmbH to expand European manufacturing and secured a dedicated 2028 Neutron launch contract from Kepler Communications. Rocket Lab also won a $397mn U.S. Space Force SB-AMTI contract to develop, launch, and operate Flatellites. Sir Peter Beck described Q2 as 'another fantastic quarter' with record results.

AST SpaceMobile reported Q2 revenue of $31.5mn (vs $34mn-35mn consensus) with an EPS of -$0.77 (vs -$0.28-0.29 expected). The company maintained FY2026 revenue guidance of $150mn-$200mn, above the ~$165mn-169mn consensus. Backlog stood at $1.3bn, and pro-forma liquidity was $3.7bn. CEO Abel Avellan said the company is preparing to initiate beta services with select strategic partners. Separately, ASTS and Rakuten were selected for Japan’s ~$1bn J-LEO sovereign satellite project. The company also launched BlueBird satellites 11-13 on 5 Aug via SpaceX, bringing its orbital fleet to 13 spacecraft, with BlueBirds 14-16 nearing shipment and production ongoing through BlueBird 46. A workshop with Meta explored enabling WhatsApp over the satellite network.

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 +0.13%
DAX +0.02%
FTSE 100 -0.35%

Commodities

Gold spot +1.12% to $4,390.29 an ounce
Silver spot +3.80% to $65.91 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate +5.05% to $82.13 a barrel
Brent crude +4.99% to $87.72% a barrel

Spot gold was up on Monday on declining yields as last week’s lower than expected NFP report continued to reduce expectations of a Fed rate rise in September. Spot gold was +1.12% to $4,390.29 an ounce. US gold futures ended above $4,400 an ounce for the first time since 4 June, rising +0.5% to settle at $4,419.70.

Spot silver was +3.80% to $65.91 an ounce due to strong industrial demand and Friday’s weaker NFP report.

Oil prices settled around 5% higher on Monday after Iran and the US each demanded compensation, scuttling prospects for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran also said the US must lift sanctions on Tehran, and meet a number of other conditions for reopening the strait, while US President Donald Trump said Iran must pay compensation for "all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded."

Brent crude futures settled up $4.17, or +4.99%, at $87.72 a barrel, while WTI crude futures closed up $3.95, or +5.05%, at $82.13.

The percentage gains were the highest since July 29 on both contracts. Both benchmarks fell more than 7% last week on hopes that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal that would result in a reopening of the strait.

According to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil output rose further in July, as Gulf members restored supplies that were shut due to the Iran war and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC’s output rose by 1.17 million barrels per day month-on-month to 19.85 million bpd, the survey found.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 10 August 2026

Currencies

EUR -0.14% to $1.1542
GBP +0.1% to $1.3509
Bitcoin -1.37% to $63,875.82
Ethereum -1.77% to $1,876.62

The US dollar was +0.17% to 99.81 on Monday, ahead of Wednesday’s highly anticipated CPI report, as investors continued to downgrade their expectations of a rate hike in September following Friday’s weaker-than-expected NFP numbers.

The dollar strengthened +0.94% against the Japanese yen to ¥159.31 despite US and Japanese efforts to prop up the currency. Bank of Japan policymakers warned of mounting inflation risks that could require faster-than-expected interest rate rises, according to a summary of opinions at their July meeting, boosting the case for a September hike.

The euro fell -0.14% to $1.1542 and the British pound rose +0.1% to $1.3509.

Fixed Income

US 10-year Treasury +4.25 basis points to 4.701%
German 10-year Bund +4.6 basis points to 3.18%
UK 10-year Gilt +7 basis points to 4.991%

US Treasuries declined on Monday, as investors prepared for CPI and PPI readings later this week that could point to persistent price pressures, while oil prices rose on increasing doubts about the ability of the US and Iran to come to terms on the Strait of Hormuz.

The move reversed part of Friday's rally, which followed weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data, as traders re-established short positions and pared long exposure.

The benchmark 10-year yield rose +4.25 bps to 4.701%, while the 30-year yield was +3.6 bps to 5.246%. On the shorter end of the curve, the yield on the 2-year note, which is most sensitive to market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate moves, advanced +3.9 bps to 4.243%.

Yields were also weighed down by this week's Treasury supply with the auction of $125 bn in new issuance this week: $58 billion in 3-year notes on Tuesday, $42 billion in 10-year debt on Wednesday and $25 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

Treasuries experienced a bear steepening, with the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields widening to 46.2 bps compared with 44.8 bps late on Friday.

The US Treasury also sold $92 billion in 13-week bills and $79 billion in 26-week bills on Monday.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures priced a 51.7% probability of a Fed rate hike at the 16 September meeting, up from 44% last Friday, but down from 67.2% last week.

Across the Atlantic, UK gilt yields were up, with the UK’s benchmark 10-year gilt +7 bps to 4.991%. 

German 2-year bond yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose +5.2 basis points to 2.78%. Germany's 10-year bond yield was up +4.6 bps to 3.18%.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 10 August 2026

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