Earnings Scoreboard: Off to a good start

“We’re definitely really excited about the prime power opportunity with data centers, and more broadly, just the demand for power that data centers and broader trends in the industry are putting onto the grid. We’re going to see a lot more of this, I believe. Prime power is a great opportunity for us because it creates services opportunity as we move forward as well.”

— Joseph E. Creed, CEO, at Caterpillar’s Q3 earnings call, on 29th October, 2025. Who’s scoring highest and why
 

The final week of October proved to be one of the most consequential earnings periods of 2025, delivering headline-grabbing results from the tech megacaps while simultaneously surfacing some genuine investor anxieties about valuations, the AI CapEx super-cycle, and profit sustainability.

As of 31st October, 83.2% of the 315 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beat earnings expectations, while 83.8% surpassed revenue forecasts, continuing a streak that's become almost routine this quarter. According to Factset, the blended Q3 earnings growth rate stands at 10.7% - higher than last week’s 9.1% - marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, and the ninth consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth for the index. The S&P 500 last saw four straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth throughout 2021, from Q1 to Q4.

The S&P 500 surprise factor is currently at 5.3%, lower than last week’s 7.6%, and lower than the average of 7.3% seen over the past four quarters and below the five-year average of 8.4%. Within sectors, Consumer Discretionary leads with a 14.1% positive earnings surprise, while Communication Services has fallen short of estimates by 9.4%. %. Since the end of Q3, the Consumer Discretionary sector has experienced the most significant improvement in earnings growth among all 11 sectors, shifting from a projected decline of 2.3% as of 30th September, to an increase of 8.0% today.

The negative surprise reported by Meta Platforms, EPS of $1.05 compared to an estimate of $6.72, was the most significant detractor to the increase in the index’s earnings growth rate over the past week. Consequently, the Communication Services sector is now seeing a decrease in earnings of 6.9%, whereas last week it showed an increase of 1.5%.

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