 | Renée Friedman PhD, Global Head of Research |
| Horacio Coutino multi-asset strategist |
“This is a crisis, and a result of Europe having consumed a peace dividend for too long. In Poland we’ve had a super law guaranteeing the defence ministry 2% of GDP for twenty years. We’re now at 4.7% because we’re scared enough.” — Radoslaw Sikorski, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland on 15th February, at the Munich Security Conference.
With the third anniversary of Russia's military intervention in Ukraine on 24th February and in the wake of the contentious Munich Security Conference, which ended on 16th February, we dedicated the past week to analysing potential investment themes stemming from the evolving geopolitical landscape, ongoing conflicts, and the financial implications of current foreign policy decisions.
It's hard to find a sector that reflects better than Defence the evolving nature of geopolitical risk in Europe, the corresponding integration of emerging technologies, and the profound shift that has engendered a super cycle within the industry.
Within this research, we focus on:
▪ The implications of the end of the peace dividend
▪ Current defencespending
▪ Lessons from Ukraine and spending priorities
▪ What US and EU Defence portfolios look like
▪ A contrast of the risk-return profile of these portfolios
In conclusion, the analysis underscores the imperative to strategically align investments with evolving security requirements and to navigate the intricate interplay of geopolitical realities, budgetary limitations, and technological advancements.
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