Corporate Earnings News
Global market indices
Currencies
Cryptocurrencies
Fixed Income
Commodity sector news
Key data to move markets
Global macro updates
Global market indices
US Stock Indices Price Performance
Nasdaq 100 -3.81% MTD +11.91% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.99% MTD +8.09% YTD
NYSE -2.21% MTD +11.95% YTD
S&P 500 -1.67% MTD +16.44% YTD
The S&P 500 is +0.62% over the past week, with 4 of the 11 sectors up MTD. The Equally Weighted version of the S&P 500 posted a weekly loss of -0.64%, its performance is -2.05% MTD and +8.86% YTD.
The S&P 500 Real Estate sector is the leading sector MTD, up +2.86% MTD +11.57% YTD, while Energy is the weakest at -7.60% MTD +0.46% YTD.
This week, Information Technology outperformed within the S&P 500 at +3.51%, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate at +2.91% and +2.33%, respectively. Conversely, Energy underperformed at -3.96%, followed by Financials and Communication Services, -2.57% and -1.25% respectively.
On Wednesday, a rally in leading technology companies led to a stock-market rebound during a volatile session as investors processed higher-than-expected inflation data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed +0.3% higher, gaining approximately 125 points. The S&P 500 rose +1.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 rallied +2.2%. All three indexes recovered from earlier losses during the day. This marked the first time since October 2022 that each index erased an intraday loss of at least 1.5%. Chipmakers spearheaded the gains, with Nvidia rising +8.2%.
The morning's consumer-price index (CPI) revealed an unexpected increase in core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, for August. It increased 0.3% from July, the most in four months, and 3.2% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This occurred even as the annual rate of headline inflation eased to a slower-than-expected 2.5%.
This report is crucial as the Fed is expected to initiate interest rate cuts next week. Following the report's release, traders reduced their expectations of a 50 bps cut next week.
In corporate news, Children's Place stock surged 86% after the apparel retailer reported an adjusted profit for the second quarter, surpassing analysts’ consensus projections of a loss. Petco Health and Wellness shares surged +33% as the company's outlook indicated progress towards a turnaround. GameStop stock was -12% after the video-game retailer reported sales that missed consensus estimates.
US stocks
Mega caps: A mixed week for the ‘Magnificent Seven’ thanks to a recovery in investor sentiment towards AI investments and the potential implementation by hyper scalers. However, the recovery was lessened due to headwinds in EU AI regulation. Alphabet -3.38%, Amazon +6.46%, Apple +0.13%, Meta Platforms -0.18%, Microsoft +3.59%, Nvidia +10.07%, and Tesla +3.97%.
Energy stocks had a largely negative week, as the Energy sector itself was -3.96%. The sector’s YTD performance is +0.46%. Over the week Apa Corp (US) -8.81%, Marathon Petroleum -7.65%, Occidental Petroleum -7.27%, Phillips 66 -5.51%, ConocoPhillips -4.95%, Halliburton -4.93%, ExxonMobil -3.81%, Baker Hughes -3.46%, Chevron -2.95%, and Shell -2.51%. However, Energy Fuels is +12.80% on news that it is ready to restart its Nichols Ranch uranium mine in Wyoming as early as 1 July 2025 with initial pre-production drilling intercepts showing stronger mineralisation than anticipated.
APA announces agreement for $950M asset sale of non-core properties in the Permian Basin. APA Corporation announced the execution of an agreement to divest non-core producing properties situated in the Permian Basin to an undisclosed buyer. The transaction is valued at $950 million, subject to customary closing adjustments.
The properties encompassed in the sale are located across the Central Basin Platform, Texas and New Mexico Shelf, and Northwest Shelf. They currently contribute an estimated net production of 21,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), with approximately 57% of this output comprising oil.
The proceeds generated from this divestiture will be primarily allocated towards debt reduction initiatives. The effective date of the transaction is 1st July, 2024, and its closure is anticipated during Q4 2024.
Following this transaction, the company's pro-forma production guidance for Q4 in the US is projected to be 307,000 boe/d. This represents a 34% increase compared to the company's production in Q4 2023.
Materials and Mining stocks had a negative week, as the materials sector was -0.84%, bringing the sector’s YTD performance to +6.04%. Albemarle +8.11%, while Sibanye Stillwater -12.96%, Mosaic -9.03%, CF Industries -3.34%, Nucor -2.78%, Newmont Corporation -2.29%, Freeport-McMoRan -0.75%, and Yara International -0.27%.
Greatland Gold secures funding for Newmont asset acquisition. Greatland Gold has successfully placed 5.18 billion new ordinary shares at a price of 4.8 pence per Placing Share, resulting in a total oversubscribed placing of approximately £248.6 million ($325 million).
Greatland entered into a binding agreement with certain subsidiaries of Newmont Corporation to acquire a 70% ownership interest in the Havieron gold-copper project, thereby consolidating Greatland's ownership to 100%. The agreement also includes the acquisition of 100% ownership of the Telfer gold-copper mine and other related assets in the Paterson region. The total consideration and debt repayment for these acquisitions is up to $475 million (before adjustments).
The proceeds from the share placing will be utilised to finance various aspects of the acquisition, including the $155.1 million cash component of the consideration, repayment of the outstanding Havieron joint venture loan to Newmont, repayment of an existing working capital facility, stamp duty, transaction costs, and working capital requirements.
European Stock Indices Price Performance
Stoxx 600 -3.24% MTD +6.06% YTD
DAX -3.05% MTD +9.42% YTD
CAC 40 -3.07% MTD -1.94% YTD
IBEX 35 -1.08% MTD +11.65% YTD
FTSE MIB -3.49% MTD +9.30% YTD
FTSE 100 -2.18% MTD +5.96% YTD
This week, the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index was -1.32%, closing at 508.02.
The STOXX Europe 600 Utilities is the leading sector so far this month, up +2.91% MTD +4.39% YTD, while Technology is the weakest at -6.82% MTD +1.41% YTD.
This week Utilities outperformed within the STOXX Europe 600 with a +2.54% gain, followed by Travel & Leisure and Telecom at +2.16% and +0.08%, respectively. Conversely, Autos & Parts underperformed at -5.80%, followed by Personal & Household Goods and Oil & Gas, -3.29% and -3.01%, respectively.
Germany's DAX index was -1.41% and closed at 18,330.27. France's CAC 40 index was -1.39%, closing at 7,396.83.
The UK's FTSE 100 index declined -0.91% this week to 8,193.94.
In Wednesday’s trading session, the Retail sector emerged as the top performer, driven primarily by Zara owner Industria de Diseno Textil following their robust Q2/H1 results, which showcased an 11% sales increase.
ASOS announced a £150M reduction in its net debt, while Boohoo Group revealed a shift of US orders to its UK distribution centre. Dunelm Group reported a FY pretax income of £205.4M but noted ongoing challenges in consumer recovery. Meanwhile, WH Smith's pre-close trading update showed a 7% revenue increase and a £50M share buyback, with LFL North American sales rising 1% in Q4.
The Technology sector also exhibited strength, buoyed by ASML. This followed a Reuters report where the Dutch government clarified that ASML requires a licence to provide spare parts and software updates for computer chip making equipment previously sold to Chinese customers, which now fall under export restrictions.
Banks garnered attention after Commerzbank's shares surged in response to UniCredit acquiring a 9% stake in the German lender, with 4.5% purchased from the German government for €702M.
Basic Resources also saw gains, propelled by a rise in copper prices attributed to a weaker US dollar.
In contrast, the Autos & Parts sector lagged following Bayerische Motoren Werke's profit warning on Tuesday. Sell-side analysts anticipate further profit warnings from automakers, suggesting Stellantis could be next due to high inventory levels and ambitious FY24 targets.
Other Global Stock Indices Price Performance
MSCI World Index -2.26% MTD +12.92% YTD
Hang Seng -4.89% MTD +0.36% YTD
This week, the Hang Seng Index was -2.00%, while the MSCI World Index was -0.04%.
Currencies
EUR -0.32% MTD -0.23% YTD to $1.1014
GBP -0.66% MTD +2.70% YTD to $1.3045
The euro was -0.64% against the USD over the past week, while the British Pound was -1.08%. This reflects the market’s virtual certainty of the Fed’s monetary easing path starting next week. The Dollar Index was +0.36% this week, +0.02% MTD, and +0.38% YTD.
The US dollar was mixed on Wednesday as it was hit by volatile trading following the release of data indicating a rise in underlying US inflation in August. This solidified market expectations of a more modest 25 bps interest rate cut next week.
The US dollar demonstrated gains against the Swiss franc, Pound Sterling, and yen, but experienced a slight dip against the euro. The US dollar declined -0.05% against the euro to $1.1014. This resulted in a marginal -0.01% decline in the dollar index for the day, settling at 101.63.
US CPI was +0.2% in August, mirroring the rise observed in July. In the 12 months leading up to August, CPI was +2.5%, representing the smallest y/o/y increase since February 2021 and a decrease from the 2.9% rise in July. However, core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, was +0.3% in August, following a 0.2% increase in July.
Sterling depreciated by -0.28% against the dollar, trading at $1.3045. The euro gained against sterling, rising by +0.14% to 84.37 pence.
The British pound came under pressure after data revealed unexpected stagnation in the UK economy. The report from the Office for National Statistics indicated no change in British economic output in m/o/m terms in July, mirroring the performance in June. However, this report had minimal impact on expectations for the BoE to lower interest rates next week.
The dollar reached its peak for the day at ¥142.55 following the release of the CPI figures, before subsequently declining by -0.14% to ¥142.25. The yen received an additional boost earlier in the day when BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to continue raising rates if warranted by the economic and inflation outlook.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin -2.89% MTD +36.70% YTD to $61,253.00
Ethereum -7.23% MTD +2.07% YTD to $2,637.70
It was a mixed week for the two major cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin rose +0.57% over the week, while Ethereum posted a -3.11% loss.
Slowing headline inflation was good news for Bitcoin this week. However, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were negatively hit following Tuesday's presidential debate. According to SoSoValue data, Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US posted total daily net outflows of $43.97 million on Wednesday, ending a two-day streak of positive flows. Spot Ethereum ETFs in the US saw net outflows of about $542,870, with seven out of nine funds posting zero daily flows. The performance of former President Donald Trump, who has come out as a strong crypto supporter and who vowed last week to make the US the "world capital" for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies if elected, was deemed by many political pundits to be lacklustre. Prediction markets immediately after the debate indicated a dip in expectations that Trump would win the election in November. Vice President Harris has yet to formally announce her administration's visions or plans for crypto.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 11 September 2024
Fixed Income
US 10-year yield -25.0 bps MTD -22.3 bps YTD to 3.658%.
German 10-year yield -18.7 bps MTD +10.7 bps YTD to 2.116%.
UK 10-year yield -23.7 bps MTD +23.3 bps YTD to 3.772%.
US Treasury 10-year bond yields are -10.1 basis points (bps) down this week.
Following the release of August data indicating a marginal increase in US consumer prices and persistent underlying inflation, US Treasury yields experienced a slight uptick on Wednesday. This development tempered expectations for a 50 bps interest rate cut by the Fed in the coming week.
10-year yields were +0.8 bps at 3.658% on Wednesday. Two-year yields, which are more closely aligned with anticipated shifts in monetary policy, were +3 bps to 3.645%. During the trading day, 10-year yields dipped below two-year yields, a phenomenon not observed since 6th September.
From a supply perspective, the US Treasury Department successfully auctioned $39 billion in 10-year notes. The auction garnered robust demand, evidenced by a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.64x. The notes were sold at a high yield of 3.648%, approximately 1.5 bps lower than the anticipated rate at the bid deadline. This suggests investor eagerness to acquire the paper. The sale will be succeeded by a $22 billion 30-year bond auction on Thursday.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has decreased to 13% (from roughly 34% on Tuesday), while the likelihood of a 25 basis point reduction next week stands at 87%. Market expectations continue to incorporate over 100 basis points in cuts throughout the remainder of the year.
The German 10-year yield was -11.2 bps this week, while the UK 10-year yield was -17.4 bps this week. The spread between US 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds currently stands at 154.2 bps, +1.1 bps from last week.
Italian bond yields, a benchmark for the eurozone periphery, were -11.9 bps this week to 3.462%. Consequently, the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields narrowed slightly by -0.7 bps to 134.6 bps from 135.3 bps last week.
Eurozone government bond yields experienced a decline on Wednesday. Germany's benchmark 10-year yield decreased by -1.4 bps, reaching 2.116%, its lowest point since 5th August. The two-year yield, which is particularly sensitive to shifts in monetary policy expectations, fell by -7 bps, settling at 2.131%, a level not seen since March 2023.
Market expectations are focused on a quarter-point rate cut by the ECB on Thursday, subsequent to a previous rate reduction in June. Additionally, markets have factored in approximately 62 bps of ECB rate cuts for the year 2024. This implies two 25 bps moves and roughly a 50% probability of a third cut.
ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to reiterate the bank's commitment to a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach in its policy decisions. Furthermore, she is expected to stress the ECB's independence from the Fed, underscoring its autonomous decision-making framework.
Commodities
Gold spot +0.73% MTD +21.80% YTD to $2,512.91 per ounce.
Silver spot -0.44% MTD +20.46% YTD to $28.72 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude -11.71% MTD -8.49% YTD to $67.30 a barrel.
Brent crude -8.07% MTD -8.20% YTD to $70.72 a barrel.
Spot gold prices are up +0.75% this week.
Gold prices experienced a decline on Wednesday, influenced by the strengthening of the dollar and Treasury yields. This development followed the release of US inflation data, which led investors to revise their expectations for a more substantial interest rate cut by the Fed in the upcoming week.
Spot gold prices specifically retreated by -0.16%, settling at $2,512.91 per ounce.
Gold has received support from several factors in recent weeks. These include mounting anticipation of US interest rate cuts in September, acquisitions by central banks, and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Oil was down this week on growing demand concerns, despite OPEC+ saying it would delay its plan to unwind voluntary production cuts by two months. As noted by the Financial Times, Brent crude, which had traded between around $73 and $92 since October last year, fell as low as $68.68 on Tuesday, its lowest level since December 2021 before recovering on Wednesday as Hurricane Francine disrupted oil and gas production along the US Gulf Coast. WTI fell as low as $65.27, the weakest since May 2023.
EIA report: crude stocks climb, gasoline and distillate demand eases. US oil inventories experienced a broad-based increase last week, as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. This rise was attributed to several factors, including an increase in crude imports, a decline in exports, and a weakening of gasoline and distillate demand.
Specifically, crude inventories expanded by 833,000 barrels, reaching 419.1 million barrels in the week ending 6th September. However, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub witnessed a decrease of 1.7 million barrels during the same period.
Net US crude imports surged by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), marking their highest level since June. Concurrently, crude exports contracted by 451,000 bpd to 3.31 million bpd, reaching their lowest point since June as well.
This shift in import and export dynamics coincided with energy facilities along the US Gulf Coast scaling back operations and evacuating some production sites in anticipation of Hurricane Francine.
Furthermore, refinery crude runs decreased by 141,000 bpd last week, leading to a 0.5 percentage point decline in refinery utilisation rates to 92.8% of total capacity.
Total product supplied, an indicator of demand, dropped by 1.2 million bpd week over week to 19.4 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, it averaged 20.5 million bpd, marking a 2.2% decrease y/o/y.
Distillate stockpiles, encompassing diesel and heating oil, saw an increase of 2.3 million barrels during the week, reaching 125 million barrels, as per the EIA data.
Gasoline stocks also rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week, reaching 221.6 million barrels. The total gasoline supplied decreased on a weekly basis by 460,000 bpd to 8.48 million bpd.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 11 September 2024
Key data to move markets
EUROPE
Thursday: ECB Rate on Deposit Facility, ECB Monetary Policy Statement, and ECB Press Conference.
Friday: French Consumer Price Index, Eurogroup Meeting, and Eurozone Industrial Production.
Saturday: Eurogroup Meeting.
Monday: Italian Consumer Price Index.
Tuesday: ZEW Surveys of Current Situation and Economic Sentiment.
Wednesday: Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.
UK
Thursday: BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings, and a speech by BoE’s Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden.
Friday: Consumer Inflation Expectations.
Wednesday: Consumer Price Index, Core Consumer Price Index, PPI, and Retail Price Index.
Thursday: BoE Interest Rate Decision, BoE Minutes, Monetary Policy Report, BoE Asset Purchase Facility, and GfK Consumer Confidence.
US
Thursday: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, and Core Producer Price Index.
Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation.
Monday: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index.
Tuesday: Retail Sales and Industrial Production.
Wednesday: Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Monetary Policy Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, and FOMC Press Conference.
Thursday: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey.
JAPAN
Tuesday: Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance.
Thursday: National Consumer Price Index, and Core National CPI.
CHINA
Saturday: Industrial Production, and Retail Sales.
Global Macro Updates
August Core CPI exceeds expectations, but disinflationary trend persists. August's core CPI came in hotter than expected, reaching 0.28% m/o/m compared to the consensus forecast of 0.2%. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase and the highest level since April. The annual core CPI of 3.2% y/o/y was in line with expectations, a slight 3 basis point increase from July, though it remains near its lowest point since April 2021. The three-month annualised pace accelerated to 2.06% from July's 1.57%, while the six-month annualised pace eased to 2.70% from 2.84% in July, the lowest since the 2021 inflation peak. The upside was driven primarily by Shelter and Owners Equivalent Rent, both increasing 0.1 percentage point to 0.5% (accounting for roughly three-quarters of the total increase), and airline fares, which rose 3.9% m/o/m.
Despite the hotter-than-expected core CPI, economists downplayed its significance, emphasising that the data still reflects ongoing disinflationary momentum. They highlighted the broadening disinflation across more categories and a larger-than-anticipated decline in core goods prices, which have now fallen for the 14th time in the past 15 months. Nevertheless, today's report further supports the likelihood of a 25 bps cut at next week's September FOMC meeting. The market is now pricing in an approximately 17% chance of a 50 basis point cut, down about 17 percentage points from Tuesday.
A new funding deadline for US Congress is on the horizon. The US Congress has resumed its session following the Labor Day break, and it faces the looming annual deadline of 30th September to secure funding for the government.
Ideally, by this point in the year, Congress would have passed the 12 individual appropriations bills, and the President would have signed them into law, thereby ensuring funding for the government for the next fiscal year. However, it is customary for Congress to delay these decisions until later in the year.
While temporary spending measures, known as continuing resolutions (CRs), are not uncommon, the upcoming election adds a layer of complexity. In an election year, the risk of a government shutdown is generally perceived as lower, as neither party wishes to bear the responsibility for such a disruption in the eyes of the electorate.
Therefore, there is a prevailing expectation in Washington that a deal will be reached before the 30th September deadline. The specifics of this deal are still under negotiation. One possibility is a CR that extends well into the next presidential term. Alternatively, another likely scenario is a CR that lasts until after the election. This would be particularly noteworthy, as the balance of power could shift significantly depending on the election outcomes, potentially influencing government spending priorities.
A continuing resolution also presents an opportunity for the parties to highlight their political priorities, which might otherwise receive less attention. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge that as the deadline for securing government funding approaches, a degree of volatility can be anticipated in the US Treasury market. This phenomenon has been observed in previous instances, leading to brief periods of heightened volatility in US markets.
While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of this information, EXT Ltd. (hereafter known as “EXANTE”) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this publication or any of the information, opinions, or conclusions contained in this publication. The findings and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of EXANTE. Any action taken upon the information contained in this publication is strictly at your own risk. EXANTE will not be liable for any loss or damage in connection with this publication.
本文提供给您仅供信息参考之用，不应被视为认购或销售此处提及任何投资或相关服务的优惠招揽或游说。
