Asset management outlook: Moving beyond volatility

Global assets under management are projected to surge from $846.1 billion in 2025 to $9.6 trillion by 2035. This growth potential is set against a backdrop of severe macroeconomic, geopolitical, and technological disruption. Key risks and opportunities are defined by five overarching themes: macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, accelerating AI adoption, regulatory fragmentation, consolidation pressure, and escalating technological and cyber risks. This report synthesises findings from leading industry research firms, international regulators, and global consultancies to provide a comprehensive picture of the key risks and opportunities facing asset managers globally.

Key Findings

Geopolitical disruption: The US-Israeli-led war with Iran has caused the largest oil-supply shock in history by disrupting transit through the Strait of Hormuz, testing global equity, bond, and commodity markets. This event highlights permanent geopolitical realignments, weakened international coordination, and rising geoeconomic fragmentation.

Structural business pressures: The industry faces structural fee compression due to the rise of passive strategies and increasing compliance costs. Profitability per AUM is down significantly. Firms are responding by shifting focus from pure beta to specialised, high-conviction alpha, leveraging AI for personalisation, and transforming product lines from mutual funds to active ETFs.

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