Is lower guidance the season's tell?

What to look out for today

Companies reporting on Wednesday, 22 April: AT&T, Boeing, Crown Castle, GE Vernova, IBM, Lam Research, Moody’s, Philip Morris International, ServiceNow, Southwest Airlines, Teledyne Technologies, Tesla, Texas Instruments

Key data to move markets today

EU: Eurozone Consumer Confidence

UK: CPI, PPI, RPI and a speech by BoE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden

Global Macro Updates

German investor sentiment reaches three-year low amid energy disruptions from the Iran conflict. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany, which measures investor expectations, plummeted to -17.2 in April 2026 from -0.5 in March, a decline of 16.7 points that significantly exceeded the consensus forecast of -5.8. The assessment of current conditions also deteriorated sharply, falling to -73.7. Over the past year, the indicator has transitioned from strongly positive levels to deeply negative territory, with pronounced weakness emerging in the past three months. 

The April reading is among the lowest in the past five years and represents the weakest since early 2023. ZEW President Wambach emphasised that the economic repercussions of the Iran conflict extend well beyond rising prices; businesses are increasingly concerned about persistent energy shortages, which are deterring investment and diminishing the impact of government stimulus measures. Inflation expectations remain high at +80.0. Recent readings from Sentix (-19.2) and the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI, 96.6) confirm this marked deterioration, reinforcing the risk of stagflation as Q2 progresses.

Warsh addresses independence, communications, AI and finances in yesterday's hearing. During yesterday’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing, Kevin Warsh addressed topics including central bank independence, communication strategies, artificial intelligence and his personal finances. Warsh’s opening remarks revealed few surprises, with the hearing proceeding largely along familiar partisan lines.

Democratic senators focused considerable attention on Warsh’s financial disclosures and his adherence to ethics standards, but placed even greater emphasis on his commitment to maintaining the Fed’s independence from political pressures. Warsh reiterated that, while elected officials frequently express their preferences regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate reductions, central bankers must exercise independent judgment. He further clarified that President Trump has never sought a commitment from him regarding any specific rate decision.

Warsh also articulated his perspective that Fed communications should shift away from a reliance on forward guidance, arguing that such practices can lead policymakers to cling to outdated forecasts. He suggested that waiting until scheduled meetings to make decisions helps prevent compounding policy errors and did not commit to maintaining press conferences after every FOMC meeting.

In addition, Warsh addressed questions about AI, noting there is ongoing work to understand its potential effects on productivity and inflation, and whether these impacts might permit the Fed to ease policy. He argued that the pace of technological change is accelerating but emphasised that more analysis is needed. Regarding the Fed’s balance sheet, Warsh stated he would approach any adjustments ‘slowly and deliberately’ and in close collaboration with the Treasury Department.

Despite the day’s proceedings, Warsh’s nomination is expected to remain stalled. While retiring Senator Tillis (R-NC) expressed support for Warsh, he reaffirmed his position that no Fed nominees should be advanced until the administration resolves its investigation into cost overruns related to Fed building renovations.

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.59%
Nasdaq 100 -0.42%
S&P 500 -0.63%, with 10 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 down

Stock market volatility surged to its highest level since the onset of the cease-fire between Washington and Tehran, as investor sentiment deteriorated amid growing uncertainty regarding the likelihood of an extension to the cease-fire agreement ahead of Wednesday’s deadline.

Major US equity indices experienced declines: the S&P 500 fell -0.63%, the Nasdaq Composite retreated -0.59% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also declined by -0.59%, or 293.18 points. Although the indexes opened on a positive note, intraday trading saw a marked reversal with losses accelerating as the session progressed.

In corporate news, Associated British Foods announced plans to separate its budget clothing retailer, Primark, from its food operations, with the intention of listing the two entities independently.

Amazon disclosed an additional $5 billion investment in Anthropic PBC and indicated the possibility of injecting up to $20 billion more in the future, underscoring its commitment to strengthening its position in the increasingly competitive artificial intelligence sector.

Deutsche Telekom is exploring the possibility of a full merger with its US subsidiary, T-Mobile US, which, according to Bloomberg news, would result in the creation of a multinational telecommunications leader and constitute the largest public merger and acquisition transaction on record.

United Airlines reduced its full-year profit guidance, citing elevated fuel costs stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to adversely impact global airlines.

S&P 500 Best performing sector

Energy +1.31%, with APA +4.55%, Halliburton +4.01% and Diamondback Energy +3.46%

S&P 500 Worst performing sector

Real Estate -1.94%, with American Tower -3.80%, Healthpeak Properties -3.68% and SBA Communications -3.32%

Mega Caps

Alphabet -1.47%, Amazon +0.66%, Apple -2.52%, Meta Platforms -0.31%, Microsoft +1.46%, Nvidia -1.08% and Tesla -1.55%

Information Technology

Best performer: Hewlett Packard Enterprise +7.66%
Worst performer: First Solar -3.05%

Materials and Mining

Best performer: Steel Dynamics +5.19%
Worst performer: FMC -8.53%

Corporate Earnings Reports

Posted on Tuesday, 21 April from The Pulse, our real-time AI-driven news tool. Available exclusively on the EXANTE Web Platform

3M reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.14, beating Wall Street consensus of $1.98, with revenue of $6 billion meeting estimates of $6 billion. The company maintained full-year adjusted organic sales growth guidance at about +3% and adjusted total sales growth at about +4%.

GE Aerospace reported Q1 earnings before open with Adj EPS $1.86 beating est $1.60 and Revenue $11.61B beating est $10.69B. Orders grew 87% and revenue rose 29% supporting double-digit growth in earnings and free cash flow. Commercial Engines & Services revenue $8.92B beat est $8.24B. FY guidance raised to Adj FCF $8B-$8.4B and Adj EPS $7.10-$7.40.

RTX reported Q1 adjusted EPS $1.78 beating est $1.53 and revenue $22.08B vs est $21.47B and raised guidance. RTX was awarded a $904.6M US Army contract for low-rate initial production of five Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense System units.

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 -1.14%
DAX -0.60%
FTSE 100 -1.05%

Commodities

Gold spot -2.24% to $4,711.67 an ounce
Silver spot -3.66% to $76.70 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate +2.43% to $90.33 a barrel
Brent crude +5.29% to $99.25 a barrel

On Tuesday, gold extended losses, pressured by a strengthening dollar and rising yields.

Spot gold declined by -2.24%, settling at $4,711.67 per ounce.

The US dollar index advanced by +0.37%, making dollar-denominated bullion more costly for investors using other currencies.

Spot silver also retreated, falling -3.66% to $76.70 per ounce.

On Tuesday, US crude futures advanced amid ongoing uncertainty regarding peace negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

WTI crude futures reached a high of $90.70 per barrel and were up on the day $2.14, or +2.43%, at $90.33. Brent crude advanced by $4.99, or +5.29%, to $99.25.

Both crude benchmarks shifted into positive territory shortly after 7:00 AM ET following statements from the US President, who asserted that Iran had violated the ceasefire multiple times. Later, at approximately 8:30 AM ET, he indicated his readiness to launch military action against Iran and expressed reluctance to extend the ceasefire.

Pakistan's information minister reported that no formal response had been received from Iran regarding participation in talks in Islamabad. Iranian officials reiterated that the US blockade represented a violation of the ceasefire and stated that Tehran would only resume discussions if the blockade were lifted.

According to BBC News, an additional factor influencing Tehran's stance was the incident involving US forces firing upon an Iranian-flagged cargo ship on Sunday. The White House also confirmed that Vice President Vance, who was scheduled to travel to Pakistan, had not yet departed.

Tensions escalated further when Hezbollah launched several rockets at Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon, jeopardising the fragile ceasefire. Crude benchmarks retreated from their intraday highs after CNN reported that Vice President Vance would travel to Islamabad the following morning.

Market participants noted that the final crude tankers departing Iranian ports prior to the onset of hostilities have now reached their destinations.

Additionally, attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure persist, with Reuters sources indicating that Russian oil production this morning would be reduced by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day as a result of these strikes.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 21 April 2026

Currencies

EUR -0.37% to $1.1739
GBP -0.18% to $1.3499
Bitcoin -0.55% to $75,562.99
Ethereum -0.40% to $2,313.03

The US dollar strengthened on Tuesday.

The US dollar index rose by +0.37% to 98.41, marking its highest level since 13 April.

The euro depreciated by -0.37% to $1.1739, and the British pound declined -0.18% to $1.3499.

Additionally, the US dollar rose against the Japanese yen by +0.44% to ¥159.38, after data indicated that Japan's exports increased for a seventh consecutive month, showing resilience despite disruptions stemming from the Gulf conflict.

Fixed Income

US 10-year Bond +4.5 basis points to 4.299%
German 10-year Bund +1.9 basis points to 3.004%
UK 10-year gilt +36.4 basis points to 5.140%

On Tuesday, US Treasuries advanced as investor sentiment was unsettled by concerns over the tenuous US-Iran ceasefire, which is due to expire on Wednesday. Uncertainty remained regarding whether negotiations between the two nations will proceed in Pakistan.

During afternoon trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury increased by +4.5 bps to 4.299%, while the 30-year yield also moved higher, rising by +2.0 bps to 4.903%.

At the shorter end of the curve, US two-year yields, which are sensitive to interest rate expectations, climbed +5.4 bps to 3.779%.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 9.2 bps of rate cuts in 2026, lower than the 9.5 bps priced in a week ago. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 0.5% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the 29 April FOMC meeting, lower than last week’s 1.0% probability.

Eurozone government bond yields also advanced on Tuesday.

Yields in the region rose toward the close of the European session after remaining stable through most of the day, tracking movements in US Treasuries.

Germany's 10-year yield increased by +1.9 bps to 3.004%. The two-year Shatz yield, which is sensitive to shifts in interest rates, advanced +5.6 bps to 2.521%, while the long-term 30-year yield edged lower by -0.2 bps to 3.546%.

Italy's 10-year yield rose by +5.0 bps to 3.765%, resulting in a spread over German Bunds of 76.1 bps.

Earlier data indicated that German investor confidence fell to its lowest level in over three years. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos emphasised the importance of caution among policymakers, noting the need to assess whether higher oil and gas prices are influencing broader price increases.

Market participants continue to assign only a minimal probability to an ECB rate hike later this month. However, they view a 25 bps increase as more likely than not by June and are nearly fully pricing in two such hikes by year-end.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 21 April 2026

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