Will the US shutdown end this week?

What to look out for today

Companies reporting on Tuesday, 11^th November: Occidental Petroleum, Sony

Key data to move markets today

EU: Speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde, Dutch central bank Governor Olaf Sleijpen, and Bank of Spain Governor José Luis Escrivá, German ZEW Current Situation and Economic Sentiment surveys, and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment survey
UK: Average earnings, Claimant Count Change, Claimant Count Rate, Employment Change, ILO Unemployment Rate, and a speech by BoE External Member Megan Greene
USA: ADP Employment Change and Bond markets will be closed for Veteran’s Day

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.81%
Nasdaq 100 +2.23%
S&P 500 +1.54%, with 8 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 up

On Monday, US equities were lifted by growing hopes that the US government shutdown may soon be ending following a 60-40 vote in the US Senate on Sunday evening for a continuing resolution bill. President Donald Trump expressed support for the bipartisan deal. The S&P 500 gained +1.54% to reach 6,832.28 points, its best daily performance since 13th October. Tech stocks climbed, with Micron Technology, TSMC, Alphabet, and Nvidia all up. However, US health-care insurers and hospitals shares fell as it appears that an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies does not appear to be included in the deal to end the 40-day federal shutdown. This means that any extension will likely have to be voted on in December. Companies hit by this included Centene, down -8.8%, Humana, -5.4%, and Elevance Health, -4.4%.

The Nasdaq Composite was +2.27%, to 23,527.17, its best session since 27^th May and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 385.12 points, or +0.81%, to 47,368.43.

In corporate news, US weight-loss drug company Metsera’s shares fell after Pfizer won a $10 billion bidding war to acquire the company. Novo Nordisk shares rose 1.2% after it dropped its bid for the company.

Eli Lilly & Co. stock hit an intraday record high after Leerink Partners upgraded its rating.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported slowing growth in monthly revenue as investors debate the sustainability of an AI boom.

Shares of the AI cloud company Northern Data surged 31.5% after Rumble, which hosts President Donald Trump's social media platform Truth Social, said it is buying the company in a roughly $767 million all-stock deal.

S&P 500 Best performing sector

Technology +2.68%, with Palantir Technologies +8.81%, Western Digital +6.91%, and Micron Technology +6.46%

S&P 500 Worst performing sector

Consumer Staples -0.34%, with Lamb Weston Holdings -3.30%, Church & Dwight -2.56%, and Clorox -2.49%

Mega Caps

Alphabet +4.04%, Amazon +1.63%, Apple +0.45%, Meta Platforms +1.62%, Microsoft +1.85%, Nvidia +5.79%, and Tesla +3.66%

Information Technology

Best performer: Palantir Technologies +8.81%
Worst performer: HP -3.77%

Materials and Mining

Best performer: Albemarle +6.59%
Worst performer: Ball Corporation -5.25%

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 +1.32%
DAX +1.65%
FTSE 100 +1.08%

Corporate Earnings Reports

Posted on Monday, 10^th November

Barrick Mining quarterly revenue +23% to $4.15 bn vs $4.36 bn estimate

Adjusted EPS at $0.58 vs $0.61 estimate 

Mark Hill, Group Chief Operating Officer, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer, said, “Higher gold production combined with lower costs and strong commodity prices drove record cash flow for Barrick in Q3. This allowed us to significantly increase share repurchases while also making progress on our key growth projects, maintaining our industry-leading balance sheet. Given the confidence in ongoing cash flow generation and shareholder focus, the Board has approved a 25% increase in the base quarterly dividend. Our portfolio of world-class assets continues to grow, as demonstrated by the generational gold discovery at Fourmile in Nevada.”— see report.

Paramount Skydance quarterly revenue -2% to $6.71 billion vs $6.99 billion estimate

Estimated EPS at a $.037 loss vs $0.38 estimate 

David Ellison, Chairman & CEO, said, “In the first 100 days, we have taken significant steps to align our business around our North Star priorities: 1) investing in our growth businesses anchored by our creative engines and exceptional storytelling; 2) scaling our direct-to-consumer business globally; and, 3) driving efficiency enterprise-wide with a focus on long-term free cash flow generation. On a full-year basis, we expect DTC to be profitable in 2025 with growth in profitability in 2026. For 2026, we expect total revenue of $30 billion led by a healthy acceleration in DTC revenue with global profitability. We expect 2026 adj. OIBDA1 of $3.5 billion and are increasing our runrate efficiency target from $2 billion to at least $3 billion.” — see report.

Tyson Foods quarterly revenue +2.2% to $13.86 billion vs $ 13.90 billion estimate

Adjusted EPS at $1.15 vs $0.85 estimate

Donnie King, President and CEO, said, "We delivered year-over-year growth in sales, adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share, reflecting the strength of our multi-protein, multi-channel portfolio. This fiscal year's progress demonstrates our commitment to operational excellence while meeting the evolving needs of our customers and consumers. As a world-class food company and recognized leader in protein, we remain focused on continuously improving the controllable aspects of our business and delivering shareholder value."— see report.

Commodities

Gold spot +2.81% to $4,111.80 an ounce
Silver spot +4.73% to $50.42 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate futures +0.60% to $60.13 a barrel
Brent crude futures +0.7% to $64.00 a barrel

Gold prices rose on Monday as expectations grew that the Fed would cut rates again this year if there is an agreement in Congress and the government re-opens. Spot gold was +2.81% to $4,111.80 an ounce. 

The US dollar index was relatively flat on Monday, at +0.02% to 99.62.

Crude oil futures rose on Monday. Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or +0.7%, to settle at $64.06 a barrel. US WTI crude futures advanced 38 cents, or +0.6%, to close at $60.13 a barrel. Both crude oil benchmarks fell about 2% last week, their second consecutive weekly decline, on excess supply expectations due to higher OPEC+ production and record US output.

According to a report from Reuters, Russian company Lukoil declared force majeure at Iraq's giant West Qurna-2 oilfield, four sources with knowledge of the matter said on Monday, after Western sanctions on the Russian oil major hampered its operations. Lukoil's operations faced mounting disruptions as a US deadline for companies to cut off business with the Russian company looms.

Note: As of 5 pm EST 10 November 2025

Currencies

EUR -0.04% to $1.1557
GBP +0.12% to $1.3175
Bitcoin +1.02% to $105,598.00
Ethereum -0.79% to $3,5410.20

The US dollar was relatively flat on Monday as investors reacted to the potential re-opening of the US government following a vote in the US Senate on Sunday evening for a continuing resolution bill. The dollar index was +0.02% to 99.62. The euro was -0.04% to $1.1557. The British pound edged up +0.12% to $1.3175.

The dollar was +0.28% against the Japanese yen to ¥154.14. On Monday, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she would work on setting a new fiscal target extending for several years to allow more flexible spending. According to Bloomberg news, she wants the government to invest in 17 key industries including semi-conductors, artificial intelligence, shipbuilding, the defence industry and critical minerals. Separately, the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions on Monday also said that the "fog surrounding Japan's economic outlook has begun to clear compared with July.” This is likely to pave the way for a rate hike in December, which would help support the currency.

Fixed Income

US 10-year Treasury +2.0 basis points to 4.111%
German 10-year bund -0.5 basis points to 2.665%
UK 10-year gilt -0.9 basis points to 4.462%

Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors moved into riskier assets after the US Senate moved closer to reopening the federal government and ending a 40-day shutdown. A reopening would reinforce hopes for a Fed rate cut and could bring a deluge of delayed federal data. These key releases, including September’s non-farm payrolls report, may increase volatility particularly if they change expectations for a December rate cut.

The 10-year Treasury note was +2 bps to 4.111%. The two-year yield was +3.2 bps to 3.589%. The 30-year yield was +0.4 bps to 4.701%. The yield curve flattened, with the spread between two- and 10-year notes at 52.2 bps compared to 53.3 bps on Friday.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 63.9% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at December FOMC meeting, lower than the prior week’s 66.8%. 

Across the Atlantic, in the UK the 10-year gilt was -0.9 bps to 4.462% as speculation mounted over the 26 November budget. It appears increasingly likely to contain tax increases and there are reports of fiscal tightening in the narrative.

In the eurozone, traders considered the impact a reopening of the US government with a higher potential for Fed rate cuts would have on eurozone bond yields.

The 10-year German bond yield was -0.5 bps to 2.665%. The two-year Schatz, more sensitive to expected changes in ECB policy, was -0.3 bp to 1.986%. On the longer end, the 30-year yield was -1.20 bps to 3.260%.

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield was -2.8 bps to 3.409% after hitting 3.451%, the highest since 13^th October. The gap over safe-haven German Bunds was at 74.27 bps, having widened to 77.40 bps earlier in the session, the highest since 30th October. The spread had fallen to 71.65 bps last week, the tightest level since 2010.

Money markets are pricing in about a 40% chance of a 25 bps cut by the ECB by September 2026. The key rate is seen at 1.9% in December 2026 and 1.95% by March 2027, from the current 2%.

ECB's Vice President Luis de Guindos said in an interview published on Monday that the ECB should remain “very prudent and cautious”, even if uncertainty has eased over the past six months following a trade deal between the European Union and the US. 

Note: As of 5 pm EST 10 November 2025

Global Macro Updates

Fed speakers' views still diverging. Fed officials are still divided over how much more to cut borrowing costs. Speaking on Monday, Fed Bank of St Louis President Alberto Musalem said he expects the economy to bounce back in Q1 next year, underscoring the need for officials to approach rate cuts with caution. As noted by Bloomberg news, he said only about 40% of the inflation that is above the central bank’s 2% target is due to tariffs, and policymakers need to continue to lean against the other forces driving prices higher, including sticky services inflation.

In contrast,San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted in a new essay that the economy is probably suffering a downturn in demand, and warned against keeping rates too high for too long. Support for further Fed cuts also came from Fed Governor Stephen Miran on Monday, when he told CNBC that better-than-expected inflation data and signs of continued weakness in the job market call for a rate cut in December. He is advocating a 50 bps cut at the December meeting. 

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