Global market indices
US Stock Indices Price Performance
Nasdaq 100 +3.45% MTD and +15.28% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.04% MTD and +8.17% YTD
NYSE +1.36% MTD and +12.27% YTD
S&P 500 +2.17% MTD and +12.22% YTD
The S&P 500 is +1.05% over the past seven days, with 5 of the 11 sectors up MTD. The Equally Weighted version of the S&P 500 is +0.38% over this past week and +7.10% YTD.
The S&P 500 Communication Services sector is the leading sector so far this month, +8.64% MTD and +27.34% YTD, while Materials is the weakest sector at -1.34% MTD and +8.80% YTD.
Over this past week, Consumer Discretionary outperformed within the S&P 500 at +3.93%, followed by Communication Services and Financials at +2.95% and +1.72%, respectively. Conversely, Utilities underperformed at -0.34%, followed by Health Care and Industrials at -0.17% and -0.16%, respectively.
The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 was +0.10% on Wednesday, outperforming its cap-weighted counterpart by 0.20 percentage points.
In a widely anticipated move, the Fed delivered a 25 bps interest-rate cut on Wednesday, eliciting a muted investor response. Initially, stocks rallied following the FOMC rate decision and the release of its economic projections, but these gains were quickly given up, even before Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference began. Stocks and bonds had already rallied in the lead-up to the meeting, in what to some investors called a ‘sell the news’ trade.
By the end of the trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +0.57%, closing just 0.2% below its record high. In contrast, the S&P 500 lost -0.10%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined by -0.33%.
In corporate news, shares of Uber Technologies fell by -4.99% following the announcement of a partnership between Lyft and Alphabet's Waymo to launch autonomous ride-hailing services, which are set to begin next year.
Apple saw a 6% decline in its smartphone sales in China during the weeks leading up to the iPhone 17 launch. This downturn was more significant than the typical slump observed before the release of a new flagship product.
Reddit is in preliminary discussions to form another content-sharing agreement with Alphabet's Google. The goal is to secure more value from future deals, as Reddit's data has become increasingly important for search results and training generative AI models.
Eli Lilly's experimental diabetes pill showed promising results in its first direct comparison with an approved rival from Novo Nordisk. Patients taking the Eli Lilly drug experienced greater weight loss and better blood sugar control.
WaterBridge Infrastructure's shares rose by +14.15% on their trading debut. The water infrastructure company raised $634 million in an IPO that was priced at the top of its marketed range.
Abu Dhabi National Oil withdrew its proposed $19 bn bid for Australian natural gas producer Santos. The company stated that a ‘combination of factors’ led to its decision not to make a final bid.
Mega caps: The Magnificent Seven had a mostly positive performance over the past week. Over the last seven days, Tesla +22.45%, Apple +5.38%, Alphabet +4.33%, Meta Platforms +3.16%, Microsoft +1.93%, and Amazon +0.56%, while Nvidia -3.97%.
Energy stocks had a mixed performance this week, with the Energy sector itself +1.08%. WTI and Brent prices are +0.55% and +0.49%, respectively, this week. Over these seven days, Energy Fuels +10.69%, APA +3.71%, ExxonMobil +2.48%, Occidental Petroleum +1.90%, Marathon Petroleum +1.65%, Chevron +1.46%, and Phillips 66 +1.31%, while ConocoPhillips -0.53%, Baker Hughes -0.94%, BP -1.11%, Halliburton -1.55%, and Shell -1.88%.
Materials and Mining stocks had a mostly positive performance this week, with the Materials sector +0.15%. Over the past seven days, Albemarle +9.33%, Mosaic +2.24%, Celanese Corporation +2.01%, Nucor +0.65%, Freeport-McMoRan +0.47%, Sibanye Stillwater +0.37%, and Newmont Corporation +0.33%, while Yara International -0.30%, and CF Industries -3.12%.
European Stock Indices Price Performance
Stoxx 600 +0.09% MTD and +8.47% YTD
DAX -2.27% MTD and +17.33% YTD
CAC 40 +1.08% MTD and +5.50% YTD
IBEX 35 +1.28% MTD and +30.46% YTD
FTSE MIB +0.73% MTD and +24.33% YTD
FTSE 100 +0.09% MTD and +12.51% YTD
This week, the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index is -0.30%. It was -0.03% on Wednesday, closing at 550.63.
So far this month in the STOXX Europe 600, Retail is the leading sector, +4.11% MTD and -0.64% YTD, while Food & Beverages is the weakest at -4.17% MTD and -4.89% YTD.
This week, Technology outperformed within the STOXX Europe 600, at +1.95%, followed by Retail and Basic Resources at +1.84% and +0.55%, respectively. Conversely, Food & Beverages underperformed at -2.05%, followed by Oil & Gas and Health Care at -1.71% and -1.61%, respectively.
Germany's DAX index was +0.13% on Wednesday, closing at 23,359.18. It was -1.16% over the past seven days. France's CAC 40 index was -0.40% on Wednesday, closing at 7,786.98. It was +0.33% over the past week.
The UK's FTSE 100 index was -0.32% over the past seven days to 9,195.66. It was -0.88% on Wednesday.
In Wednesday's trading session, Technology was the outperformer, driven by approximately £30 billion in deals from major US tech investments in the UK during President Trump's state visit. Within the sector, SAP shares rose after Jefferies highlighted the company's strong cloud orders and cash flow potential.
The Retail sector also performed well. Moonpig Group advanced after reaffirming its FY 2026 guidance, while Inditex was upgraded to a ‘buy’ rating by UBS, citing strong growth prospects. Similarly, Marks and Spencer Group gained on improved earnings confidence. PZ Cussons exceeded expectations for its full-year adjusted EPS, and Fnac Darty advanced amid reports of a potential acquisition of Engie Home Services.
In Healthcare, positive momentum was supported by analyst upgrades. Novo Nordisk was raised to ‘buy’ by Berenberg, which pointed to potential upside driven by new leadership. The sector was also buoyed by news of obesity drug expansions targeting conditions such as sleep apnea and knee pain. GSK announced a $30 billion investment in the US. Conversely, AstraZeneca shares declined following mixed clinical trial results.
In contrast, several sectors faced headwinds. Basic Resources declined as copper prices extended their fall. Iron ore prices also fell on concerns over higher shipments and demand. The Autos & Parts sector retreated, with Volkswagen pressured by potential €1 billion in US tariff costs affecting its Audi brand. The chemicals sector also underperformed, with Morgan Stanley downgrading the ratings for both Solvay and Wacker Chemie.
Other Global Stock Indices Price Performance
MSCI World Index +2.61% MTD and +16.05% YTD
Hang Seng +7.05% MTD and +33.83% YTD
The MSCI World Index is +1.20% over the past 7 days, while the Hang Seng Index is +2.42% over the past 7 days.
Currencies
EUR +1.13% MTD and +14.12% YTD to $1.1816
GBP +0.89% MTD and +8.91% YTD to $1.3623
Following the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, the US dollar experienced a volatile trading session. The dollar initially fell to a four-year low against the euro before reversing its losses to trade higher by the day's close.
This rate cut, the first by the FOMC since December 2024, lowered the policy rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. This decision, along with projections for two more quarter-percentage-point reductions this year, suggests that Fed officials are becoming less concerned that the administration's trade policies will lead to sustained inflation.
The dollar found support after Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the rate outlook as a ‘meeting-by-meeting situation,’ characterising the recent move as a ‘risk management cut’, indicating no immediate need for rapid rate changes.
The euro initially climbed to $1.1918, its strongest since June 2021, before falling to trade at $1.1816, a decrease of -0.36% on the day. Despite this, the euro rose +1.02% for the week.
The dollar index ended the day +0.34% higher at 97.01, though it has declined -0.83% over the past week. It is -0.86% MTD, and -10.57% year-to-date.
Earlier in the day, data showed a drop in US single-family homebuilding and construction permits in August, influenced by a surplus of unsold new homes and a softening labour market, despite a concurrent decline in mortgage rates.
Sterling was down -0.15% against the dollar at $1.3623, though it remained near its two-and-a-half-month high. The British pound has risen +0.70% over the last week.
The BoE is widely expected to keep its interest rate at 4.0% during its meeting today. This expectation is supported by official figures showing August's annual inflation rate at 3.8%, reinforcing the view that further rate cuts are unlikely in the near term.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar rose +0.35% to ¥146.94. Over the last five trading sessions, the dollar has fallen -0.30% against the yen, contributing to a decline of -0.05% so far this month.
The BoJ is anticipated to maintain its current rates at its policy meeting on Friday. The focus in Japan remains on the upcoming 4th October vote for a new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, who will replace outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 17 September 2025
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin +7.01% MTD and +24.07% YTD to $116,071.50
Ethereum +3.78% MTD and +36.72% YTD to $4,531.11
Bitcoin is +2.05% and Ethereum +4.37% over the past 7 days. On Wednesday, Bitcoin was -0.60% to $116,071.50 and Ethereum was +0.80% to $4,531.11. US Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have registered a seven-day streak of inflows totalling nearly $2.9 billion. In addition, Wednesday’s widely expected rate cut may lead investors to seek higher returns through alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies. The rate cut could inject more liquidity into the markets and lead to increased trading volume for cryptocurrencies.
Another positive sign for cryptocurrencies is the news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) voted on Wednesday to approve rule changes that will enable exchanges to adopt generic listing standards for certain qualifying exchange traded products (“ETPs”) that physically hold commodities like digital assets. As a result, such digital asset products will be permitted to list and trade on exchange without being subject to Commission review.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 17 September 2025
Fixed Income
US 10-year yield -14.8 bps MTD and -49.1 bps YTD to 4.085%
German 10-year yield -5.3 bps MTD and +30.5 bps YTD to 2.674%
UK 10-year yield -9.5 bps MTD and +6.1 bps YTD to 4.629%
Following the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 bps, US Treasury yields rose across the curve in a volatile trading session. The FOMC’s action appears to prioritise the downside risks to employment, suggesting that officials are placing greater weight on the labour market than on the higher inflation noted in their economic projections. This move indicates a shift toward a slightly more accommodative monetary policy.
After the FOMC announcement, Treasuries yields declined and turned lower on the session before reversing course as Powell spoke, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ultimately rising by +5.0 bps to 4.085%.
At the close of trading, the yield on the 30-year bond was +3.7 bps to 4.653%. The two-year Treasury yield, highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose +6.0 bps to 3.572%. The spread between the two- and 10-year Treasury notes widened to a positive 51.3 bps, an expansion of 1.0 bps from the 50.3 bps recorded last week.
Over the past seven days, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was +3.2 bps. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was -0.8 bps. On the shorter end, the two-year Treasury yield was +2.2 bps.
Prior to the Fed's statement, market expectations, as reflected by the CME's FedWatch Tool, showed a 96.1% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, with a 3.9% chance of a larger 50 bps reduction.
After Wednesday’s FOMC decision and press conference, traders are pricing in 70.2 bps of cuts by year-end, higher than last week’s 68.1 bps, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 87.7% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at October’s FOMC meeting, up from 73.9% last week.
Across the Atlantic, in the UK, on Wednesday the 10-year gilt was -1.5 bps to 4.629%. The UK 10-year yield was -0.4 bps over the past seven days. The 30-year gilt was -2.3 bps to 5.432% on Wednesday and is -5.2 bps over the past seven days.
Across the English channel, eurozone government bond yields eased across the curve and throughout the region on Wednesday, as markets anticipated a rate cut from the Fed later in the day.
The yield on Germany's 10-year bond was -2.1 bps to 2.674%. This decline comes as money markets continue to price in no rate cuts from the ECB for the remainder of the year.
Longer-term bonds saw a more significant decline, with the yield on Germany's 30-year bond falling -4.6 bps to 3.230%, reaching its lowest level since 14th August. This movement coincided with a successful auction of Germany's 30-year Bunds, which saw an improved bid-to-cover ratio, signalling strong investor demand for the long-dated debt after a period of recent pressure.
On the short-end of the German curve, the 2-year Schatz was -0.4 bps lower to 2.008%.
French yields declined to a lesser extent on Wednesday, with the 10-year French yield trading -1.2 bps lower to 3.490%. The yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds, a key indicator of the risk premium for French debt, was 7.6 bps higher from the previous week's 74.0.bps, settling at 81.6 bps.
Over the past seven days, the German 10-year yield was +1.7 bps. Germany's two-year bond yield was +4.5 bps, and, on the longer end of the spectrum, Germany's 30-year yield was -4.6 bps.
The spread between US 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds is now 141.1 bps, 1.5 bps higher than last week’s 139.6 bps.
The spread between Italian BTP 10-year yields and German Bund 10-year yields stood at 79.6 bps, a 1.8 bps contraction from 81.4 bps last week. The Italian 10-year yield is -0.1 bps over last week, after trading -1.9 bps lower on Wednesday to 3.470%.
Commodities
Gold spot +6.18% MTD and +39.56% YTD to $3,659.67 per ounce
Silver spot +5.00% MTD and +44.40% YTD to $41.66 per ounce
West Texas Intermediate crude +0.14% MTD and -10.62% YTD to $64.10 a barrel
Brent crude -0.32% MTD and -9.02% YTD to $67.90 a barrel
Gold prices declined on Wednesday, pulling back from a record high reached earlier in the session.
Spot gold fell by -0.81% to trade at $3,659.67 per ounce, after peaking at a record high of $3,707.40. Despite this retreat, prices have still risen by +0.53% over the last seven days and have gained +6.18% so far this month.
Gold's strong performance this year has been supported by several key factors, including sustained purchases by central banks, diversification away from the US-dollar, continued safe-haven demand fuelled by geopolitical and trade tensions, and broader weakness in the dollar itself.
Oil prices declined on Wednesday after data that revealed an increase in US diesel stockpiles, raising concerns about future demand.
Brent crude futures settled 61 cents lower, a decline of -0.89%, to $67.90 a barrel. US WTI crude futures fell by 45 cents, or -0.70%, to $64.10.
This week, WTI and Brent prices are +0.49% and +0.53%, respectively.
On the supply side, several developments were in focus. Kazakhstan resumed oil supplies via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline on 13th September, according to state energy company Kazmunaygaz. Supplies had been suspended last month due to contamination issues.
In Nigeria, President Bola Tinubu lifted a six-month emergency rule in Rivers, a key state for the nation's crude oil exports.
Additionally, Russian oil supply risks were a concern after Ukraine's attacks on the country's energy infrastructure intensified. Russia's oil pipeline monopoly, Transneft, issued a warning to producers on Tuesday that they may need to cut output following recent drone attacks on critical export ports and refineries.
EIA report. According to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, US crude oil stockpiles decreased last week. This decline was driven by a record low in net imports, as exports surged to a near two-year high.
For the week ending 12th September, crude stocks fell by 9.3 million barrels to a total of 415.4 million barrels. This drop was supported by a significant increase in US crude exports, which rose by 2.53 million barrels per day (bpd) to 5.28 million bpd, their highest level since December 2023. At the same time, net US crude imports fell by 3.11 million bpd, reaching the lowest level on record since 2021.
Crude stocks at the key Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub also declined by 296,000 barrels.
In addition to crude, gasoline inventories also fell by 2.3 million barrels to 217.6 million barrels. However, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, increased by 4 million barrels to 124.7 million barrels.
Overall product supplied, a key indicator of demand, rose to 20.64 million bpd, up from 19.78 million bpd the previous week. Despite this, refinery crude runs decreased by 394,000 bpd, and utilisation rates fell by 1.6 percentage points to 93.3%.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 17 September 2025
Key data to move markets
EUROPE
Thursday: Bundesbank Monthly Report and speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guindos, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, Governor of the Bank of Spain José Luis Escrivá and Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel
Friday: German PPI, EU EcoFin Meeting, Eurogroup Meeting, and a speech by President of the Dutch central bank (DNB) Olaf Sleijpen
Saturday: EcoFin Meeting
Monday: Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Tuesday: French, German, and Eurozone HCOB Composite, Services and Manufacturing PMIs
Wednesday: German IFO Business Climate, Current Assessment and Expectations Surveys
UK
Thursday: BoE Interest Rate Decision, Minutes, and Monetary Policy Summary and GfK Consumer Confidence
Monday: Speeches by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill and Governor Andrew Bailey
Tuesday: S&P Global Composite, Services and Manufacturing PMIs and a speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill
Wednesday: A speech by BoE External Member Megan Greene
USA
Thursday: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
Friday: A speech by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
Monday: Speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack
Tuesday: S&P Global Composite, Services and Manufacturing PMIs and Existing Home Sales Change
Wednesday: New Home Sales Change and a speech by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
CHINA
Monday: PBoC Interest Rate Decision
JAPAN
Thursday: National Consumer Price Index
Friday: BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement
Wednesday: BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes
Global Macro Updates
Fed cuts amid weakening labour market and signals more to come. On Wednesday the FOMC voted 11-1 to cut the target range for the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed was now in a “meeting-by-meeting situation” yet the projections signalled two more cuts this year of 25 bps each, another 25 bps in 2026 and a final 25 bps cut in 2027.
In the press conference Powell said that “labour demand has softened, and the recent pace of job creation appears to be running below the break-even rate needed to hold the unemployment rate constant.” However, problems in the labour market were attributed more to labour supply issues. Powell also suggested that tariff-related inflation could be more than a one-time event.
A narrow majority of members of the Federal Reserve board projected at least two additional interest rate cuts this year, implying consecutive moves at the remaining meetings in October and December. These projections suggest a broader shift in focus toward emerging weaknesses in the job market, an environment made more complex by significant policy changes that have reduced economic predictability.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who had referenced ‘downside risk’ six times during a July news conference, affirmed this change in outlook, stating, ‘That downside risk is now a reality.’
The projections also underscore the potential for more contentious future decisions. Seven of the nineteen meeting participants anticipated no further rate reductions this year, while two others expected only one more. Furthermore, the forecasts indicate that most officials do not foresee numerous additional cuts next year, based on their current outlook for solid, albeit slowing, economic activity.
‘There’s no risk-free path,’ Powell remarked, highlighting the challenge of navigating risks of both higher inflation and weaker employment. ‘It’s not incredibly obvious what to do,’ he added.
While markets may view the easing bias favourably, the Fed's messaging remains nuanced and stops short of a complete policy pivot. Although the dot plot now implies two more cuts in 2025, Powell downplayed its significance, characterising the outlook as ‘more balanced’ rather than decisively tilted toward labour market risks.
This shift was reflected in multiple changes to the FOMC statement concerning the labour market. The committee noted that ‘job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up.’ It also removed language describing the labour market as ‘solid’ and added that ‘downside risks to employment have risen.’
For the time being, the Fed's announcement sends a signal of its willingness to tolerate moderately elevated inflation in the near term as the timeline for achieving its 2% target lengthens.
In the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections, the forecast for 2025 real GDP was revised upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%. The median unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remained unchanged at 4.5%, and the projection for 2025 core PCE inflation was also held steady at 3.1%.
In short, it appears that the Fed’s dual mandate is pulling it in opposing directions as inflationary pressures remain a concern as employment numbers weaken.
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