Will CPI confirm a rate hike?

S&P 500 -0.58% to 7,591.70

US 10-year yield +12.0 basis points to 4.969%

Spot gold -1.93% to $4,315.69 an ounce

DXY +0.30% at 99.08

Key data to move markets today

EU: Speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane

UK: GDP, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance and Consumer Inflation Expectations

USA: CPI, Core CPI, Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment Indices, UoM 1- and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations and Monthly Budget Statement

Global Macro Updates

CPI preview. The August core CPI report is due today at 8:30 am EDT. Consensus expects core CPI to rise 0.2% m/o/m, matching July’s pace, while the annual rate is expected to ease to 2.4% y/o/y, its lowest level since March 2021. Goods prices are expected to face upward pressure from vehicles and IT-related price increases. On the services side, shelter is expected to maintain its slowing trend, partly offset by a rebound in lodging costs and airfares. The policy implications for the Fed remain mixed. Citi expects the report to confirm a clear cooling trend sufficient to support a September hold, while BofA warned that core inflation running near a 2.9% annualised pace could still justify a September rate hike.

US August PPI. August core PPI came in cooler than expected, while headline PPI matched consensus. August core PPI rose 0.2% m/o/m, below consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase and down from July’s revised 0.3% gain. Headline PPI increased 0.4% m/o/m, in line with consensus and above July’s revised 0.1% rise, while headline PPI accelerated to 5.4% y/o/y. Goods prices climbed 1.1%, led by a 4.2% rise in energy prices and a 24.1% increase in diesel. Services prices edged up 0.1%, supported by a 2.3% gain in transportation and warehousing. PCE-relevant components were mixed: airline passenger services rose 4.2% after falling 3.1% in July, hospital outpatient care increased 0.4% after a 0.6% gain in July  and physician care rose 0.1% after declining 0.1% in July, while portfolio management fell 1.6% after rising 6.2% in July.

ECB decision. The ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 bps and lifted its inflation forecasts, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%. The move marked the central bank’s second rate hike since the Iran conflict began in late February. In its statement, the ECB adopted firmer language on the inflationary impact of the energy price shock, noting that inflation is expected to remain well above target for an extended period. The central bank also highlighted upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.

The updated macroeconomic projections showed headline inflation forecasts revised higher by 0.2 percentage points for 2027 and by 0.1 percentage points for 2028, to 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. Core inflation forecasts were also raised by 0.1 percentage points for both 2027 and 2028, to 2.6% and 2.3%, respectively. The ECB also upgraded its growth outlook, raising the 2026 GDP forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9% and the 2027 forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 1.4%.

The ECB left its policy outlook unchanged, maintaining a data-dependent approach and avoiding any pre-commitment to a specific rate path. While consensus still points to no further hikes, market expectations for another rate increase have moved higher this week as energy prices have advanced.

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.60%
Nasdaq 100 -1.08%
S&P 500 -0.58%, with 9 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 down

US equity indexes declined on Thursday, extending losses for a fourth consecutive session. The Nasdaq Composite was -0.65%, or down 171.62 points, to 26,081.72. The S&P 500 fell -0.58%, or down 44.66 points, to 7,591.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was -0.60%, or down 316.56 points, to 52,064.10.

In corporate news, Oracle’s cloud computing business grew faster than analysts expected, suggesting its large AI data centre investments are beginning to deliver results.

Adobe issued a sales outlook that slightly missed analysts’ estimates, leaving concerns about competitive pressure from AI startups unresolved.

Anthropic PBC alleged that Moonshot AI secretly routed thousands of user requests to its Claude models and presented the resulting responses as its own to gain an advantage in the AI market.

Corporate Earnings Reports

Posted on Thursday, 10 September from The Pulse, our real-time AI-driven news tool. Available exclusively on the EXANTE Web Platform

Adobe reported Q3 earnings after the close. Revenue was $6.8bn (vs $6.69bn est, up +13% y/y), adjusted EPS $6.13 (vs $6.09 est, up +15% y/y). The company raised full-year FY26 revenue guidance to $26.58bn-$26.63bn (est $26.51bn) and EPS to $24.45-$24.50 (est $24.36). Q4 guidance for revenue was $6.80bn-$6.85bn (est $6.84bn) and EPS $6.30-$6.35 (est $6.32). Non-GAAP operating income was $3.0bn (est $2.95bn). AI-first ARR grew 150%+ and monthly active users exceeded 1bn. CEO commented that hitting 1bn MAUs is 'a defining moment' and confirmed raising full-year targets. Separately, Adobe named an inside hire as next CEO, drawing a negative reaction from Wall Street.

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 -0.49%
DAX -0.84%
FTSE 100 -0.57%

Commodities

Gold spot -1.93% to $4,315.69 an ounce
Silver spot -5.53% to $63.55 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate +7.10% to $103.93 a barrel
Brent crude +7.22% to $108.97 a barrel

Gold prices declined on Thursday as a firmer US dollar weighed on demand for dollar-denominated bullion. Spot gold fell -1.93% to $4,315.69 per ounce.
Spot silver dropped -5.53% to $63.55 per ounce.

Oil prices surged on Thursday, with both major benchmarks trading above $100 per barrel. This was due to the sharpest escalation in shipping attacks since the start of the Iran war heightened concerns over further disruptions to already tight supplies.

Brent crude futures settled +$7.34, or +7.22%, at $108.97 per barrel. WTI crude futures rose +$6.89, or +7.10%, to $103.93 per barrel.

Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since 19 May and posted their steepest daily gains in nearly two months.

Iran-aligned Houthis seized control of Yemen’s port of Mocha on Thursday, adding to risks for Red Sea traffic. At the same time, Gulf traffic remains constrained through the Strait of Hormuz as tanker attacks across the region have intensified.

Attacks launched from Yemen against Saudi energy facilities have introduced an additional source of market risk. The threat is no longer confined to the single choke point of the Strait of Hormuz; it now includes the potential for disruptions to spread across regional export routes, oil production sites and other energy infrastructure.

The US President warned that the US may strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, located near the heavily damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility. He said the war would likely extend beyond the November midterm elections.

Iran said it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after the United States struck five Iranian oil tankers. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would escalate its response to any further attacks.

Additionally, an increase in China crude purchases following months of subdued demand is strengthening physical crude markets. If Chinese buying continues to recover, it could amplify the impact of any supply disruptions and push prices higher, while a renewed pullback in imports could limit market gains.

Adding to concerns around tightening supply, US crude oil inventories fell by 391,000 barrels to 424.1 million barrels last week as refining activity remained strong, according to the Energy Information Administration.

OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 bpd on Thursday, its monthly report showed, marking a fifth consecutive downward revision.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 10 September 2026

Currencies

EUR -0.23% to $1.1607
GBP -0.32% to $1.3502
Bitcoin -1.16% to $77,237.05
Ethereum -0.04% to $2,460.76

The US dollar advanced against major currencies on Thursday, recovering part of the week’s losses, while the euro weakened after the ECB delivered a widely expected rate increase.

The dollar index rose +0.30% to 99.08, ending a three-session losing streak.

The ECB raised interest rates by 25 bps, marking its second move this year to contain an energy-driven rise in inflation triggered by the Iran war.

The euro fell immediately after the decision and was down -0.23% on the day to $1.1607.

The British pound declined -0.32% to $1.3502. This could be partially attributed to BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments pushing back against market pricing for interest rate hikes.

The yen weakened after three consecutive sessions of gains. The yen was down -0.50% on Thursday to ¥154.33 per dollar. However, this still remains close to a seven-month high ahead of an expected BoJ rate hike next week.

Fixed Income

US 10-year Treasury +12.0 basis points to 4.969%
German 10-year Bund +5.3 basis points to 3.512%
UK 10-year Gilt +11.5 basis points to 5.314%

US Treasury yields rose on Thursday after the latest inflation reading lifted expectations for a Fed rate hike next week, while surging oil prices added to inflation concerns.

Yields extended their advance after the US government bought back $5.2 billion of bonds in its latest operation to support market liquidity. This was below the $6 billion cap and roughly half of the $10.5 billion of bonds offered.

The 10-year Treasury yield traded at its highest level since late 2023, while the 30-year yield reached its highest level since 2007 and the 2-year yield rose to its highest level in more than two years.

Longer-dated yields briefly pared gains after a successful government auction of 30-year bonds, but the move proved short-lived as oil futures extended their rally.

The US 10-year yield rose +12.0 bps to 4.969%, its highest level since October 2023.

The 30-year bond yield rose +7.5 bps to 5.368%, its highest level since June 2007.

The 2-year yield, which typically tracks expectations for the Fed funds rate, rose +14.3 bps to 4.588%, its highest level since July 2024.

The US 2s10s yield curve stood at 38.1 bps, narrowing by 2.3 bps from Wednesday.

The government saw robust demand for a $22 billion sale of 30-year bonds on Thursday. The debt sold at a high yield of 5.308%, more than 2 bps below its pre-auction level, while the bid-to-cover ratio reached 2.61x, its highest since February.

This followed Wednesday’s $39 billion government auction of 10-year notes, which also drew strong demand.

In the euro area, traders prepared for interest rate increases extending well into next year after the ECB raised borrowing costs and lifted its inflation forecast.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield rose to its highest level since 2011, while France’s 30-year yield reached levels last seen in 2003.

Money markets now price in roughly 85 bps of additional monetary tightening by end-2027, up from just under 70 bps before the ECB announcement. A rate hike by December is now fully priced in.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield reached 3.512%, up +5.3 bps on the day.

German 2-year bond yields, which are more sensitive to policy rates, rose +16.3 bps to 3.244%.

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield rose +1.5 bps to 4.277%, leaving the spread over Bunds at 81.8 bps.

France’s 10-year OAT yield reached 4.436%, up +10.6 bps. French OATs have remained under pressure this week, rising +31.9 bps so far, with the spread between French OATs and German 10-year Bund yields widening to 92.4 bps, its highest level since 2012.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 10 September 2026

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