EXANTE Quarterly Macro Insights Q2 2024

Q2 review

Equity investors continued to see positive returns in Q2 as the robust economic momentum observed in the first quarter of 2024 persisted and investors continued to flock to artificial intelligence (AI) stocks during the quarter. Strong returns from AI heavy mega caps propelled US equity markets to record highs during Q2. Inflation continued to fall in the US, the UK, and across Europe. Since December 2023, year-over-year core inflation in the US has decreased by 30 basis points, compared to 80 basis points in the eurozone and 90 basis points in the UK. However, there is growing divergence in central bank policies, with the US Fed projecting just one rate cut this year, the Bank of England still on hold and likely to remain cautious as it awaits a new government’s spending plans as it projects inflation to rise again in Q3, and the ECB uncertain about the timing of its next move. For emerging market central banks, the delay in Fed cuts has contributed to slower or postponed rate-cutting cycles in response to currency pressures. However, two noteworthy exceptions persist: China, maintaining its stimulative monetary policy, and Japan, which has finally initiated a gradual rate-hiking path. Against this backdrop of resilience, developed market equities yielded positive total returns of +2.8% for the quarter, according to JP Morgan. These returns were concentrated in larger companies, while rate-sensitive small-cap stocks and REITs underperformed due to the confirmation of a prolonged higher interest rate environment. 

Conversely, fixed income investors experienced another quarter of negative returns, with global investment-grade bonds generating negative returns of -1.1%. Bond yields rose rapidly during the first few weeks of Q2 as strong US economic data and higher than expected inflation readings worried investors. However, yields have fallen back on signs of slowdown and inflation cooling, with the PCE, the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, finally dropping in June, reaching 2.6%. However, the US rate differential with other developed markets has widened again this year, increasing by 16 basis points thus far. As a result, the US dollar has not depreciated as anticipated. Looking ahead, the stabilisation of interest rate differentials and the narrowing of growth differentials may limit further appreciation of the dollar, maintaining its strength, but not necessarily leading to further strengthening. However, the US election poses a potential risk to the dollar. The expected increase in tariffs by former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump, is likely to result in increased domestic inflation. This, in turn, would mean that the Fed would find it difficult to reduce rates, thereby negatively affecting emerging market economies as well as the currencies of other key trading partners.

US indices for Q2 2024

S&P 500 +3.92% QTD
Nasdaq 100 +8.41% QTD 
Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.12% QTD
NYSE -1.56% QTD

According to the S&P Sector and Industry Indices, 5 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were in positive territory in Q2. The best performing sector in Q2 2024 was Information Technology (+13.61%), Communication Services (+9.11%), and Utilities (+3.85%), whereas the defensive Materials sector was -4.90%.

It was a strong quarter for the mega caps, as all members of the Magnificent Seven advanced, Nvidia +36.73%, Apple +22.82%, Alphabet +20.69%, Tesla +12.57%, Microsoft +12.09%, Amazon +7.13%, and Meta Platforms +3.84%.

In Q2 energy stocks were -3.19% as concerns over Chinese demand hit markets. ExxonMobil was -0.96%, BP Plc -4.14%, Chevron -0.84%, Occidental Petroleum -3.02%, Halliburton -14.31%, Marathon Petroleum -13.91%, and Phillips 66 -13.57% in Q2. Shell +7.96%, and Baker Hughes +4.99% in Q2.

Basic materials stocks were -4.90% in Q2. Albemarle Corporation was -27.49%, Nucor Corporation -20.12%, Mosaic -10.97%, CF Industries Holdings was -10.92%, Yara International -10.29%, and Sibanye Stillwater -9.08% in Q2, while Newmont Mining +16.82%, and Freeport-McMoRan +3.36% in Q2.

European Indices Q2 2024

Stoxx 600 -0.24% QTD
DAX -1.39% QTD 
CAC 40 -8.85% QTD
IBEX 35 -1.18% QTD
FTSE MIB -4.59% QTD
FTSE 100 +3.75% QTD 

European equities fell amid uncertainty caused by the announcement of parliamentary elections in France and falling expectations for steep interest rate cuts by the ECB this year. 

The information technology sector gained with semiconductor-related stocks performing particularly well. The consumer discretionary sector saw declines amid weakness in automotive and luxury goods stocks.

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points in early June. However, the scope for further cuts may be limited by sticky inflation. Annual inflation in the euro area was 2.5% in June, down from 2.6% in May. However, core inflation, excluding the volatile effects of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, stayed at 2.9% in June. ECB policymakers are suggesting that there will be one, maybe two cuts this year, but ECB President Christine Lagarde has stated that the ECB is in no hurry to lower borrowing costs further as progress from here appears to be slower.

Global Indices:

Hang Seng +7.12% QTD
MSCI World +3.50% QTD

Fixed Income

US Treasuries 10-year yield +19.7 basis points to 4.402%.
Germany’s 10-year yield +19.7 basis points to 2.501%.
Britain’s 10-year yield to +23.6 basis points 4.177%.

After two years of central bank rate hikes, 86% of global fixed income assets are now yielding 4% or more, versus less than 20% in the decade leading upto the pandemic, LSEG Datastream data show. While the backdrop of heightened interest rate volatility and policy rate uncertainty has adversely affected bond market performance this year, the upward adjustment in interest rates has significantly enhanced the current income derived from US Treasuries and other fixed income instruments. US Treasuries were actually relatively flat on the quarter, finishing much where they started in April. 

Commodities

Gold spot +4.97% QTD to $2,327.70 an ounce.
Silver spot +18.14% QTD to $29.44 an ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude -2.64% QTD to $81.74 a barrel.
Brent crude -2.48% QTD to $84.84 a barrel.

Gold markets ended Q2 on a positive note, as investors continued to flock to the safe haven asset on rising geopolitical tensions. It was also supported by central bank purchases although China pulled back on these purchases in June. Gold prices hit new highs in Q2, reaching over $2.400 an ounce before falling back in June. 

Concerns about oversupply was a key driver for oil n Q2. Although OPEC+ said it would continue its production cuts through 3Q24 it did suggest it would adapt to market conditions. 

On the demand side, oil prices were supported by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) June report which suggested that world oil demand growth would continue to slow, with 2024 gains now seen at 960 kb/d, 100 kb/d below previous forecasts. The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) said that global oil inventories fell by an estimated 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2024 (1H24), and they expect that it would continue to decrease by an average of 0.6 million b/d from 3Q24 through 1Q25. However, future demand in China, the world’s largest oil importer, remains unclear as the government there continues to deal with disinflation, poor consumer demand, and weakness in the property market.

Note: Data as of 4 pm EDT 28 June 2024

The US

Large-cap market breadth remained highly concentrated, with a significant portion of the S&P 500's gains attributable to a disproportionately small number of prominent technology companies. The Technology and communication services sectors spearheaded the market's advancement, while healthcare stocks benefited from increased adoption of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss. Conversely, the real estate and materials sectors exhibited the weakest performance in Q2. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, which experienced a subdued second quarter.

The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for over 35% of the index's market capitalisation. However, there are indications of potential shifts in the market dynamics. Some of the leading technology companies have recently experienced setbacks due to earnings that failed to meet expectations. Additionally, within this group, the performance disparity between top performers like Nvidia and Meta Platforms and weaker performers like Tesla has continued to widen.

Despite these developments, certain high-quality companies remain undervalued and overlooked. Over the past decade, investors have tended to penalise companies for earnings misses while overlooking those that surpass expectations. This asymmetry underscores the importance of diligent fundamental research in the upcoming earnings season, as well as the need for focused active management.

This phenomenon is evident in the relative price responses following earnings announcements. Historically, according to Alliance Berstein, the frequency of earnings beats is currently higher than average. However, high-performing firms have not been adequately rewarded with subsequent price increases, partly due to the dominance of a few mega-cap companies. Conversely, firms that have fallen short of consensus earnings estimates have faced disproportionately large share price declines.

Headline CPI slowed to 3.3% in May 2024, the lowest in three months, compared to 3.4% in April. Core inflation slowed to 3.4% annually in May, the lowest rate since April 2021. The labour market remains tight although it is showing some signs of weakness. The May ADP report showed that private payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs in June after rising 157,000 May. There is also a decline in job openings with 1.22 job openings for every unemployed person in May. The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is close to its average of 1.19 in 2019. Weekly jobless claims also moved higher in June. Nonfarm payrolls added 272,000 jobs in May 2024. However, there were modest downward revisions to job growth of 15,000 combined for the prior two months. The unemployment rate moved slightly upwards to 4% in May, the highest level since January of 2022, while the participation rate held at 62.5%. This was driven by a decline among workers aged 55 and older, which offset the rise in the rate of workers aged 25 to 54 to the highest level since 2002. Average hourly earnings were +0.4% month-over-month and 4.1% y/o/y, still above the level the Fed said is necessary to achieve the 2% inflation target. Consumer demand is still strong with retail sales +0.1% m/o/m in May 2024 and +2.3% above May 2023. However, US consumer sentiment fell in May with the UoM consumer sentiment index edging down to 68.2 in June 2024, down1.3% from 69.1 in May. Although the Fed suggested one cut in 2024 in its June dot plot, Fed minutes revealed that officials "did not expect that it would be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate until additional information had emerged to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward" the 2% target.

The eurozone

European equity markets experienced a predominantly negative performance in the second quarter of 2024 due to the geopolitical risk created by the EU parliamentary elections and the snap election in France. Despite a robust start to the year, the Stoxx Europe 600 index was -0.24% in Q2, as political uncertainty within the EU fueled concerns of a budgetary crisis. France's CAC 40 was the weakest performer, falling -8.85%, while Germany's DAX index declined by -1.39%. This widespread shift in sentiment across European equities led investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets, such as German bunds, which subsequently rallied.

Since the EU parliamentary elections, a significant repricing of European risk premia has occurred, with French assets and those associated with EU integration, such as defence and banking sectors, experiencing the most notable declines. European companies with exposure to the US and the FTSE 100, which derives half of its earnings in US dollars, also outperformed. Similarly, European growth pricing across assets sharply declined, while it remained more resilient in the US. The initial round of French elections largely aligned with expectations, leading to a slight reversal in Europe's underperformance, at least for risk assets.

In Q2, sector performance exhibited a distinct bias towards cyclical sectors over defensive ones. Sector-wise, Stoxx Euro 600’s top performers included Healthcare (+6.09%), Basic Resources (+5.91%), Technology (+3.87%), Telecom (+2.01%), Oil & Gas (+1.23%), and Financials (+0.35%). Conversely, Retail (-5.22%), Food & Beverages (-4.62%), Personal & HHold Goods (-3.61%), Insurance (-2.57%), and Industrial Goods (-1.88%) sectors lagged behind.

The Granolas include: GSK with a Q2 return of -10.48%, Roche +12.67%, ASML +8.07%, Nestlé -4.21%, Novartis +10.07%, Novo Nordisk +14.10%, L'Oréal -6.52%, LVMH -14.41%, AstraZeneca +15.71%, SAP +5.02%, and Sanofi -1.12%.

The eurozone economy continued to grow in Q2 but at a slower pace. The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index for June came in at 50.9, down from May’s 52.2, and a 3-month low. The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index came in at 52.8, again a drop from May’s 53.2 and another 3-month low. Inflation has also fallen in Q2 with June inflation falling to the ECB’s target of 2%. Unemployment is holding at a record low 6.4%, suggesting that the labour market remains exceptionally tight.

The UK

UK equities rose over the quarter with the FTSE 100 upalmost 4%. Although the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, there are increasing expectations of a rate cut in Q3. However, despite suggestions by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey that the BoE that the door was opening for a rate cut and headline inflation returning (temporarily) to target in June, sticky services inflation and a forecast reacceleration in inflation meant the BoE felt unable to cut rates. Yields rose over the quarter and UK Gilts delivered negative returns of -1.1%. The BoE has left open the possibility of a move in August, but it is likely that the BoE will want to see what fiscal policy changes the new government proposes. All polls indicate that the ruling Conservatives are heading towards a significant electoral defeat today, but the scale of the potential majority by the Labour party remains unclear. Inflation is slowing with headline inflation at 2% y/o/y in May, down from April’s 2.3% and the lowest inflation rate in the country since April 2021. Core inflation fell from 3.9% in April to 3.5% in May. Services prices have been the most persistent component of inflation. The labour market remains tight although unemployment is increasing with the unemployment rate for February to April 2024 at 4.4%. Wage growth came in at 6.0%. The UK growth picture is also remaining positive. The seasonally adjusted services PMI business activity index remained in expansionary territory during June, at 52.1. While this did signal an eighth consecutive monthly increase in output, it was down from May’s 52.9. Between January and March, the economy grew by 0.7%, above initial estimates of 0.6%.

Asia ex-Japan

Moves by the Chinese authorities to support the real estate sector provided a boost to Chinese equity markets. This, together with still strong investor interest in AI, helped Asia ex-Japan equities deliver strong returns of +7.3% over the quarter. The MSCI Asia outperformed with a gain of +2.56%, led by a remarkable surge of +13.49% in Taiwan’s TAIEX. China's Hang Seng Index, however, was +7.12%. India's MSCI Index also performed well, climbing +9.91%. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index was +6.74%.

Emerging markets

A softening of US macroeconomic data helped ease investor concerns about the probability of at least one US interest rate cut this year. Emerging market stocks were also helped by signs of a rebound in China. As noted by UNCTAD, global trade itself improved in Q1, with increased exports from China (9%), India (7%) and the US (3%). Conversely, Europe’s exports showed no growth and Africa’s exports decreased by 5%. 

Turkey was the best performer over Q2 as its economic policy returned to more orthodox behaviour last year with the central bank raising rates in January this year. Inflation fell back to 71.6% in June, falling from 75.5% in May.

Looking at regional performance within emerging markets, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index delivered a return of +4.41% in Q2 2024. The performance in Latin America, reflected by the MSCI Latam Index, was negative at -14.03%, with Brazil's Bovespa Index experiencing a dip of -3.28% and Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC experiencing a decline of -8.59%. In contrast, Eastern Europe displayed a more positive picture, with Poland's WIG index climbing +7.09%, Hungary's BUX rising +10.26%, and a particularly impressive surge of +18.19% in Turkey’s BIST 100.

Currencies 

The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a continuation of strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies. The US Dollar Index rose by +1.26%. This may be attributable to the strength of the US economy, which has resulted in the Fed taking a more cautious approach to future interest rate cuts than the market expected at the end of Q1.

In contrast, the Euro experienced a decline of -0.77% against the USD during Q2, while GBP was +0.17% in Q2. Sterling remains the best performing G10 currency against the USD as inflation continued to come down in Q2 and the short recession ended, with the UK services sector still in positive territory, coming in at 52.1 in June. 

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin -14.14% QTD -9.93% MTD +44.70% YTD
Ethereum -5.04% QTD -9.98% MTD +47.47% YTD

Crypto markets saw extensive outflows in the last part of the Q2 with the shine coming off Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Ethereum also failed to rally despite the approval by the US SEC in principle of Ethereum ETFs. The drop in market values of cryptocurrencies may be attributed to the US Federal Reserve continuing to maintain a high interest rate environment for longer.

As noted by Coinpedia.org, Bitcoin's quarterly returns for Q2 2024 show a 12% decline, meaning the price at the end of June 2024 was 12% lower than at the beginning of April 2024. This followed on from Bitcoin’s fourth halving event in early April in which reduced the block reward for miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, impacting miners’ profitability. It was expected that the halving would result in Bitcoin appreciation.

Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 28 June 2024

What to think about in Q3 2024

There are signs that market breadth may be broadening, as evidenced by low pairwise correlation among stocks, suggesting increased independent trading and potential opportunities for active managers. Earnings expectations for the broader market are also projected to converge with those of the leading technology companies in the latter half of 2024 and early 2025.

Source: Blackrock Fundamental Equities.

As market breadth expands, there are opportunities in alternative large-cap companies that possess sound balance sheets, consistent earnings streams, and significant growth potential, yet remain undervalued by investors. Such companies can be found across various sectors and industries, including value segments and emerging markets, where many businesses operate independently of local macroeconomic trends.

For instance, within the European market, industrials constitute nearly one-quarter of the MSCI Europe Growth Index, representing a weight four times greater than their counterpart in the Russell 1000 Growth Index. Consensus earnings estimates for European industrial companies in the MSCI Europe Growth Index are projected to reach 15.9% by 2025, aligning with estimates for the US technology sector. Many business models within the European industrials sector, including those that enable AI, offer surprising sources of consistent growth. While these companies may not directly manufacture the GPU chips that drive machine learning, they possess earnings potential comparable to growth stocks.

Similarly, the healthcare sector is leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and develop more effective drug candidates through AI algorithms. With healthcare representing 10% of global GDP, this sector enjoys a structural tailwind that is expected to gain momentum as populations in developed markets age. These trends should contribute to robust long-term earnings growth among select companies with high-quality business models.

The business cycle itself remains highly uncertain. We appear to be towards the late part of the cycle given the still high level of employment and inverted yield curves. Yet resilient growth, strong corporate earnings in Q1, disinflation, and expected central bank rate cuts may still result in a soft landing. However, if the labour market begins to contract at a faster pace than currently expected, there is a strong possibility that the Fed may be forced to move faster. On the fixed income front, several factors may serve to limit further upward movement in interest rates although much will be contingent upon unexpected geopolitical events including elections. Nevertheless, the expected moderation in growth by Q4, coupled with an expected decline in real personal consumption expenditure inflation, if all else remains steady, to 2% by mid-2025, should help mitigate any substantial upward pressure on rates. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's gradual reduction of its quantitative tightening (QT) program indicates a potential shift towards becoming a net buyer of US Treasuries by year-end, thus likely containing any significant rate increases.

Conversely, certain factors may establish a floor for interest rates. Long-term rates are likely to remain supported due to the projected gradual pace of rate reductions through 2026 and the upward revision of estimates for the perceived "neutral" policy rate, or r-star, for the US economy. Furthermore, technical dynamics in the Treasury market, including increased Treasury bond supply resulting from heightened borrowing by the federal government, should also contribute to maintaining a floor on rates.

Economic and Geopolitical Risk Calendar:

In addition to monetary and fiscal policy changes, there are other factors that could affect market performance in Q3. Geopolitical tensions remain high globally and are rising in the Middle East as well as in the South China Seas. We are also seeing rising shipping costs. This is due a variety of reasons: the continuing Houthi attacks in key shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the rerouting of ships via Africa, the shortage of shipping containers, US sanctions on Chinese imports which have led to disruptions in trade flows and adjustments in global supply chains, the impact of inflation and shifts in consumer behaviour reshaping global trade patterns and operational costs, and the introduction of new industrial policies including domestic input requirements affecting global trade patterns.Other potential policy and geopolitical risks for investors that could negatively affect corporate earnings, stock market performance, currency valuations, sovereign and corporate bond markets and cryptocurrencies include: 

July 2024

1 July - 31 Dec 2024 Hungarian Council presidency, EU. Hungary is due to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. Hungary’s leader Viktor Orbán, has repeatedly clashed with the EU on a number of policies. 

9 July 2024 Second round of the French election. National Rally (NR), the far right party led by Marine Le Pen, won the first round of the election, obtaining slightly over 33% of the vote with It is led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella. There are 577 seats in the National Assembly, including 13 overseas districts and 11 constituencies that represent French nationals abroad. For an absolute majority a party needs 289. Current polling indicates that the NR will not receive a majority of the votes and will have to form a cohabitation government. 

9-11 July 2024 NATO summit, Washington, DC, USA. The 2024 summit will take place in Washington DC (US) and will mark the 75th anniversary of the establishment of the alliance. Ukraine’s possible NATO accession will be the key agenda item, although no invitation is likely to be made at this time.

15-18 July 2024 US Republican Party National Convention. Delegates in Milwaukee will select the party’s nominees for president and vice-president in the 2024 US presidential election. Former President Donald Trump will be the candidate. The June 2024 US supreme court decision which guaranteed some degree of immunity from his previous actions related to the 6 January events, and which returned key questions about the scope of Trump's immunity to the trial judge to resolve, makes it highly unlikely he will be tried before the election on these charges.

16-17 July 2024 G7 trade ministers’ meeting. The meeting will take place in Villa San Giovanni in Reggio Calabria (Italy).

18 July 2024 European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting. The ECB will likely keep rates on hold during this meeting as it waits to see the impact of its first rate cut in June. Although inflation continues to come down, reaching 2.5% in June from May’s 2.6%, core inflation came in at 2.9% in June, the same as in May. However, ECB policymakers have said that given the strength of the eurozone labour market, they have time to see the effect of the previous rate cut. Markets are pricing in two additional cuts this year.

28 July 2024 Presidential elections, Venezuela. The government retains a mix of tools to ensure its desired electoral outcome, including control of the Consejo Nacional Electoral (National Electoral Council) and courts, use of the state-controlled media and using government-allied irregular militias to harass the opposition and its supporters. However, a credible opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, remains in the race against Nicolás Maduro, who has held the country’s presidency since 2013. Eight of 10 candidates, including President Nicolás Maduro, have signed an agreement binding them to respect the results of the contest as announced by electoral authorities.

30-31 July 2024 Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting. The Fed will very likely continue to hold rates at this meeting despite signs of disinflation continuing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there’s been a “substantial” move toward better balance in the labour market between the supply of and demand for workers, but even with a slowdown in hiring, wages are still rising at a pace too high to meet the 2% inflation target. 

August 2024

1 August 2024 Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting. The minutes of the June meeting said the decision not to cut rates was “finely balanced” for some of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee. With inflation continuing to fall in June, although expected to rise again in Q3, there will be pressure on the BoE to cut rates as the labour market continues to deteriorate. However, members who voted for a hold in the June meeting wanted “more evidence of diminishing inflation persistence … before reducing the degree of monetary policy restrictiveness.” This suggests that a cut in August may still be on hold.

19-22 August 2024 US Democratic Party National Convention. Delegates in Chicago will select the party’s nominees for president and vice-president in the 2024 US presidential election. Although current President Joe Biden is still expected to be the nominee, there are increasing calls by Democrats to replace him following his disastrous performance during the first debate with former President Donal Trump, the expected Republican nominee. His fitness for office is being questioned following the debate.

September 2024

1 September 2024 Legislative elections, Czechia. Czechia will see regional elections and the election of one-third of the Senate (upper house), serving as a gauge of public sentiment for political parties ahead of the 2025 general election.

12 September 2024 European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting. The ECB has stated that they wanted to review the data that will be available before this meeting. The ECB will be focused on how wage inflation is developing and whether the interest rate is having a negative impact on growth. 

17-18 September 2024 Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting. There will be mounting expectations of a rate cut at this meeting if inflation continues to fall. The Fed will be watching the slowdown in the labour market closely to see if wage growth is also coming down in line with the inflation target.

19 September 2024  Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting. Keeping in mind that BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in March that rate cuts were “in play” at future meetings of the BoE Monetary Policy Committee, the BoE MPC may decide that the risks to economic growth are greater from a higher policy than the return of inflation. However, if the Bank moves in August, it may decide to wait on any further movement until statements from the new government’s chancellor to get a better understanding of the direction and implications for inflation of any new policies.

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