Can the Fed really afford to wait?

S&P 500 +0.21% to 7,428.78

US 10-year yield -4.7 basis points to 4.611%

Spot gold -1.17% to $4,027.42 an ounce

DXY -0.11% to 101.42

What to look out for today

Companies reporting on Wednesday, 29 July: American Water Works, Biogen, Boston Scientific, Carvana, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Equinix, Fair Isaac, Fortinet, GE Healthcare Technologies, General Dynamics, Humana, Lam Research, Meta Platforms, MGM Resorts, Microsoft, Procter & Gamble, Qualcomm, Robinhood Markets, Verisk Analytics, Vertiv, Vulcan Materials

Key data to move markets today

EU: French GDP

USA: Fed Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and FOMC Press Conference

Global Macro Updates

July consumer confidence missed expectations. US July consumer confidence fell to 90.8, below consensus of 92.3, while June was revised to 92.2 from 91.2. The Present Situation Index declined 3.6 points to 114.9, marking a third consecutive drop, while the Expectations Index was unchanged at 74.7.

The labour market differential weakened. The share of consumers saying jobs were ‘plentiful’ declined to 24.6% from 25.5% in June, while those saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ edged down to 21.5% from 21.7%.

Write-in responses indicated that sentiment remained pessimistic. However, concerns about prices, oil and geopolitics eased, while references to food costs and labour-market risks increased. Twelve-month inflation expectations also moderated.

Looking ahead, consumers expect little improvement in business conditions over the next six months, although labor-market expectations were slightly less negative.

July FOMC Preview. The July FOMC meeting concludes today, with the policy statement due at 2:00 pm EDT and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT.

Previews expect only limited changes to the policy statement, though it may be updated to reflect the improving unemployment rate. Most previews suggest the press conference is unlikely to deliver new information. UBS noted that holding a press conference could itself point to a potential policy shift, given Warsh’s prior view that such events may be unnecessary unless the Fed has something meaningful to communicate.

Several previews said the rate decision is likely to reflect Warsh’s position, with the committee ultimately aligning behind the Chair. BofA expects a hold, arguing that leaving rates unchanged could weaken the Fed’s inflation credibility, while a hike would conflict with Warsh’s framework of looking through supply shocks. Goldman Sachs also expects a hold, while noting elevated uncertainty because the renewed escalation in Iran hostilities occurred during the blackout period.

Citi expects officials to conclude that policy is appropriately positioned, though it argued that a hold would likely be interpreted by markets as dovish. Citi also expects dissents from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, while a third dissent could be viewed as hawkish. Goldman Sachs added that a hike would likely have limited disinflationary impact, given that inflation pressure is being driven by supply shocks and inflation expectations remain anchored.

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.03%
Nasdaq 100 -0.98%
S&P 500 +0.21%, with 7 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 up up

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +1.03%, or 537.24 points, while the S&P 500 rose +0.21%. The Nasdaq Composite fell -0.22%.

In corporate news, Meta Platforms and BlackRock plan to develop a 1-gigawatt data center complex in Texas at an estimated cost of $14 billion, extending the investment surge in AI computing infrastructure.

Corporate Earnings Reports

Posted on Tuesday, 28 July from The Pulse, our real-time AI-driven news tool. Available exclusively on the EXANTE Web Platform

Boeing reported Q2 results: revenue $24.56bn (beat estimates of $24.26bn), core loss per share -$0.76 (missed -$0.28 estimate), Operating cash flow $1.36bn (beat), adjusted FCF $631mn (positive vs expected loss), Order backlog record $715bn. Commercial Airplanes revenue up +8% y/y, Defence +13%, Global Services +1%. The quarter included a $280mn charge on Air Force One programme. The CEO said operations are more stable and certification on plan, with momentum continuing. Separately, FAA ordered inspections of seats on hundreds of 737 MAX jets. Certification of 737-7/10 expected in 2026 with first deliveries in 2027.

PayPal reported Q2 results. Revenue was $8.68bn (est $8.47bn), up +5.0% y/y, and adjusted EPS was $1.38 (est $1.27), down -1% y/y. Total payment volume reached $486.45bn (est $474.59bn), up +10% y/y. Active accounts were 439mn, up +0.3% y/y. The company raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to ~$5.38 (est $5.31), from a low-single-digit decline. For Q3, it expects low-single-digit EPS decline y/y. Free cash flow was $1.8bn, up +157% y/y. PayPal plans at least $1.5bn in cost savings over 2-3 years and returned $1.5bn in buybacks in Q2. CEO Enrique Lores said, 'Based on the strength of our execution and confidence in the trajectory of the business, we’re raising our full-year non-GAAP guidance.' On reported M&A interest, the CEO declined to comment on market speculation. Truist upgraded the stock from Sell to Hold, raising its price target to $57 from $44, citing M&A potential.

United Parcel Service reported Q2 earnings before the open. Revenue was $22.8bn vs consensus $21.84bn, and adjusted EPS was $1.76 vs $1.67 expected. Year-over-year revenue growth was +7.5%. Adjusted operating margin improved +40 bps to 9.2%, while total package volume reached 1.22bn. The company raised its full-year guidance, forecasting revenue of about $91.2bn (up from $89.78bn) and adjusted EPS of about $7.22. The US Domestic Package segment revenue rose +6.0% y/y to $14.93bn, International revenue increased +12.5% y/y to $5.04bn, and Supply Chain Solutions revenue grew +7.8% y/y to $2.86bn. CEO Carol Tomé stated that Q2 marked an expected significant shift in performance, delivering revenue and non-GAAP operating profit growth, and noted the successful completion of the Amazon glide down.

Coca-Cola reported Q2 results with revenue of $13.4bn vs $13.16bn expected and adjusted EPS of $0.97 vs $0.93, both beating consensus. Unit case volume rose +5% y/y, comparable operating margin expanded to 35.6% vs 35% expected. The company raised its FY26 guidance: organic revenue growth of ~5%, comparable EPS growth of 9-10%, and free cash flow of ~$12.4bn. Separately, Coca-Cola and Unilever saw sales surge from a World Cup marketing blitz, and the Fairlife business unit resumed a majority of its production. CEO James Quincey said the company delivered another strong quarter by staying close to changing consumer needs.

Visa reported its Q3 FY26 earnings for the period ending June 2026. Revenue was $11.6bn, up +14% y/y, and above the $11.39bn consensus. Non-GAAP EPS was $3.32, also beating the $3.23 estimate. The company forecast full-year adjusted EPS growth at the low end of the mid-teens and net revenue growth at the low end of the low-teens. Payment volume rose +10% y/y on a currency-neutral basis, with cross-border volume up +13% and processed transactions totalling 71.7bn, up +10% y/y. Visa also announced a 7% workforce reduction, eliminating approximately 2,600 jobs to streamline operations and increase investment in AI. Separately, the firm partnered with X Money to provide Visa debit cards on the platform. CEO Ryan McInerney stated that "consumer and business spending remains resilient" and that the company is "designing, building and shipping products at an increased velocity" to capture growth opportunities.

Ford reported Q2 earnings with revenue of $48.3bn (vs $45.86bn est), adjusted EPS of $0.42 (vs $0.30 est) and adjusted EBIT of $1.72bn (vs $1.31bn est). It raised full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to $10bn–$11bn from $8.5bn–$10.5bn and adjusted free cash flow to $6bn–$7bn from $5bn–$6bn. The CEO said Ford is becoming a more profitable and disciplined company. Other developments: Ford bid for a US Army truck contract, formed a joint venture with Geely to build EVs in Spain, and agreed to embed Apple Maps in its next-generation electric vehicle platform.

Seagate Technology reported Q4 FY26 earnings. Revenue was $3.63bn vs an estimate of $3.49bn, and adjusted EPS was $5.71 vs an estimate of $5.08. Adjusted gross margin was 52.7%, up +1,480bps y/y. For Q1 FY27, it guided revenue of $4.1bn (+/- $100mn) vs an estimate of $3.75bn, and non-GAAP EPS of $7.30 (+/- $0.20) vs an estimate of $5.80. It generated record free cash flow of $1.1bn. CEO said Seagate's strong Q4 exceeded expectations, capping a year of 34% annual revenue growth and record profitability, with durable long-term demand seen for mass capacity storage as AI accelerates data generation. During Q2, SK Hynix reported revenue of 79 trillion won and net profit of 93.8 trillion won, with DRAM average selling price up +30% q/q. For Q3, it guided DRAM and NAND shipments up and forecast market demand for DRAM to rise mid-20% y/y in 2026. It is expanding HBM4 supply in H2. Analysts at Rosenblatt reiterated a Buy rating on Seagate and raised their price target to $1,300 from $1,000.

KLAC reported earnings after the close. The company is a US semiconductor equipment maker. In late July, a report emerged that a state-backed Chinese firm had begun mass-producing domestic DUV lithography machines, causing a drop in chip stocks including KLAC amid fears it could reduce China's reliance on Western suppliers. KLA has been a top S&P 500 performer over the past decade, up +3,160% and tied to the AI-infrastructure boom. No specific Q4 revenue, EPS, or guidance figures were provided; the earnings release is pending with highlights to follow.

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 +0.63%
DAX +0.41%
FTSE 100 +0.83%

Commodities

Gold spot -1.17% to $4,027.42 an ounce
Silver spot -1.74% to $57.11 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate -3.39% to $79.13 a barrel
Brent crude -4.47% to $83.76 a barrel

Gold prices traded lower on Tuesday due to increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations ahead of today’s policy announcement, persistent inflationary concerns tied to elevated energy prices and the dollar remaining near one-month highs. Spot gold declined -1.17% to $4,027.42 per ounce.

Spot silver prices also declined, falling -1.74% to $57.11 per ounce

Oil prices initially came under pressure after another night without US attacks on Iran, while shipping data suggested tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was recovering.

Losses deepened shortly after 11:00 EDT on Tuesday following reports that mediators believed a US-Iran breakthrough was approaching. According to sources, President Trump was waiting to make a decision until after meeting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Iran continued to argue that the original MOU granted it a degree of control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude benchmarks later recovered modestly from their lows after Yemen's Houthis said they had launched a ballistic missile at the Saudi oil tanker Ghazal for violating the maritime navigation ban and ignoring warning calls.

Brent futures settled at $83.76 per barrel, down $3.92, or -4.47%. WTI futures ended at $79.13 per barrel, down $2.78, or -3.39%.

Separately, multiple sources told Reuters that OPEC-7 is likely to raise production quotas from August by an additional 188K bpd, before pausing further increases for the remainder of the year.

CPC Black Sea exports resumed Monday, according to Reuters industry sources, with satellite data showing tankers beginning to gather in and around the terminal. Additionally, Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian refineries, striking a plant in western Siberia overnight.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 28 July 2026

Currencies

EUR +0.17% to $1.1390
GBP +0.00% to $1.3287
Bitcoin -1.31% to $64,089.39
Ethereum -0.94% to $1,922.24

The US dollar weakened on Tuesday. but remained close to a one-month high, as investors assessed key central bank decisions due this week from the Fed, BoE and BoJ. The dollar index declined -0.11% to 101.42.

The euro recovered from the previous session's one-month low, trading +0.17% $1.1390, while sterling was broadly unchanged at $1.3287, near its weakest level since 1 July.

Against the yen, the US dollar rose +0.05% to ¥163.77, remaining near a 40-year high.

Fixed Income

US 10-year Treasury -4.7 basis points to 4.611%
German 10-year Bund -2.2 basis points to 3.137%
UK 10-year Gilt -5.3 basis points to 4.946%

US Treasury yields moved lower on Tuesday, with the 10-year note experiencing its first three-day decline in a month, as traders positioned ahead of the Fed's policy decision today.

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell -4.7 bps to 4.611%, after reaching a one-week low of 4.588%. The 30-year bond yield declined -4.8 bps to 5.092%, marking a third consecutive fall.

The 2-year yield, while trading -4.0 bps lower at 4.291%, remained on pace for a fifth consecutive monthly increase, its longest such run since the nine-month rise that ended in April 2022.

Market-implied expectations for a 25 bps Fed rate increase stood at 32.1%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, up from 25.7% a week earlier.

A $44 billion auction of 7-year notes was viewed as mediocre, with the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.49x.

Eurozone government bond yields declined on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous two sessions as markets reassessed the outlook for ECB policy tightening.

Germany's 10-year Bund yield fell -2.2 bps to 3.137%, while the 2-year Schatz yield, which is more sensitive to rate expectations, declined -4.5 bps to 2.755%. The Schatz had reached a two-year high of 2.894% last week.

Attention now turns to Q2 eurozone GDP data and the flash estimate of July inflation, both of which could provide further insight into the impact of the war on the bloc's economy.

Money markets have modestly scaled back expectations for additional ECB tightening in recent days, though they were still pricing in roughly a 70% probability of a September rate increase, with the possibility of another move later in the year.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 28 July 2026

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