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Dow Jones hits 18,000. Big Data explains but can Big Data predict?

Dow Jones hits 18,000. Big Data explains but can Big Data predict?

 

On the 23rd of December 2014, the Dow Jones industrial average hit the 18,000 for the first time in history. Just as the financial trading community was getting ready to break off for the holidays, last minute trades drove the DJI to its all time so far.

A look at social media activity on the 23rd of December reflects the build up towards 18,000. Understanding this activity will help us predicting similar future events by fine tuning pattern recognition systems with the right parameters and variables

The Sentiment

Of 8,395 social conversations analyzed between December 22nd at 9pm and December 23rd at 9pm, approximately 3,411 social conversations (41%) were positive, and 421 social conversations (5%) were negative. 4,563 social conversations (54%) were classified as neutral, or not very emotional in either direction.

The most frequently used positive emotions were tops,shares, interest rates, yes and safety. The most frequently used negative emotions were trouble, cutting,broke, gross domestic product and lost. The biggest sentiment gap occurred on December 23rd at 3:00pm when the positive sentiment reached 38% (636 social conversations), and the negative was4% (64 social conversations). At 3pm, there was a spike of 636positive social conversations.

Influencers

The top Influencer, Wall Street Journal with 5,481,423 followers and an Influencer Score of 99, posted once between December 22nd at 9pm and December 23rd at 9pm. Total Volume by Country United States (2,315 social conversations), United Kingdom (183 social conversations) and India (110 social conversations) posted the highest number of social conversations. Conversations From the 8,395 total social conversations between December 22nd at 9pm and December 23rd at 9pm there were 17 major categories of conversation, with "dow jones industrial average hits 18,000" occupying 14.0% or 1,172 social conversations.

Many other metrics and analysis can be performed on this event, but the most important task is making sense of these metrics. Predictive analytics is the next step in the big data frenzy. 2015 will be the year of 'fast data' where the more reactive and dynamic systems will prevail.

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