Corporate Earnings Calendar 8 May - 14 May 2025
Thursday: Shopify, ConocoPhillips, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Viatris, Cleanspark, Cloudflare, Coinbase Global, Illumina, Jackson Financial, Pinterest, The Trade Desk, Monster Beverage, Norfolk Southern Corp.
Friday: Enbridge
Monday: Fox Corporation
Tuesday: JD.com
Wednesday: Cisco Systems
Global market indices
US Stock Indices Price Performance
Nasdaq 100 +1.52% MTD and -5.45% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.09% MTD and -3.36% YTD
NYSE +0.78% MTD and +0.87% YTD
S&P 500 +1.12% MTD and -4.26% YTD
The S&P 500 is +1.12% over the past week, with 7 of the 11 sectors up MTD. The Equally Weighted version of the S&P 500 is +1.11% over this past week and -2.37% YTD.
The S&P 500 Information Technology is the leading sector so far this month, +2.81% MTD and -8.92% YTD, while Health Care is the weakest sector at -3.69% MTD and -1.75% YTD.
Over this past week, Information Technology outperformed within the S&P 500 at +2.81%, followed by Utilities and Industrials at +2.25% and +2.13%, respectively. Conversely, Health Care underperformed at -3.69%, followed by Materials and Consumer Staples at -0.67% and -0.14%, respectively.
US stocks concluded Wednesday's trading session with gains following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates. The S&P 500 index advanced by +0.43% on Wednesday. The Nasdaq 100 also recorded a gain of +0.39%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by +0.70%.
The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 was +0.60% on Wednesday, outperforming its cap-weighted counterpart by 0.17 percentage points.
In its announcement, the FOMC cautioned about increasing risks to the economic outlook.
During the press conference following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the prevailing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and its potential economic consequences. He indicated that the central bank is well-positioned to observe how the situation unfolds before implementing any policy adjustments.
Powell noted that the anticipated risks to economic growth "haven't materialized yet," adding "we can afford to be patient".
How long the good economic news will last as the White House’s trade policies play out is the biggest question confronting central bankers.
According to LSEG I/B/E/S data, as of 7 May, 2025 Q1 y/o/y earnings are expected to be 14.0%. Excluding the Energy sector, the y/o/y earnings estimate is 16.1%. Of the 417 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 2025 Q1, 75.3% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 67%. The 2025 Q1 y/o/y blended revenue growth estimate is 4.9%. If the Energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 5.3%.
In corporate news, shares in Google’s parent Alphabet fell by as much as 9% on Wednesday before ending the day -7.5%, The drop was due to Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice-president of services, saying the iPhone maker was “looking at” introducing alternative search engines for its web browser powered by artificial intelligence. As reported by the Financial Times, he told a US court that the company was considering AI start-ups such as Perplexity and China’s DeepSeek as an alternative to Google.
Ford announced plans to increase prices on select 2025 models, including the Maverick, Bronco Sport, and Mach-E, built after 2nd May. According to a memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) will rise between $600 and $2,000 per vehicle. This adjustment reflects automakers' efforts to navigate the impact of President Trump's tariffs on automobiles and car parts.
The Commerce Department disclosed its intention to revise a rule that previously limited the export of AI chips to countries such as India, Switzerland, Mexico, and Israel. This change is anticipated to offer relief to Nvidia and other technology companies facing export controls.
Gilead Sciences announced a commitment to domestic investment, pledging $11 billion towards US research and manufacturing in the coming years. This decision aligns with a broader trend among pharmaceutical companies seeking to strengthen their domestic capabilities in anticipation of potential US tariffs.
Carvana reported a Q1 earnings, doubling of its profits, driven by an increase in consumer purchases of new and used cars, as buyers sought to avoid the expected higher costs associated with US tariffs.
Uber Technologies reported Q1 gross bookings that fell short of expectations, attributing the shortfall to reduced US inbound travel, which has slowed growth in its rideshare business.
Mega caps: The Magnificent Seven had a mixed performance this week with Microsoft +9.64%, Meta Platforms +8.71%, Nvidia +7.47%, and Amazon +2.33%, while Tesla -2.11%, Alphabet -4.67%, and Apple -7.65%.
Energy stocks had a mostly negative performance this week, with the Energy sector itself -0.13%. WTI and Brent prices are -0.41% and -3.63%, respectively, this week. Over this past week Marathon Petroleum +5.30%, Energy Fuels +5.26%, Baker Hughes +2.57%, Phillips 66 +1.43%, BP +0.16%, and Hess +0.03%, while Chevron -0.20%, Apa -0.39%, Shell -0.47%, ExxonMobil -0.97%, Occidental Petroleum -1.01%, ConocoPhillips -1.58%, and Halliburton -2.32%.
Materials and Mining stocks also had a mixed performance this week, with the Materials sector -0.67%. Over the past seven days, Sibanye Stillwater +8.42%, Mosaic +3.82%, CF Industries +2.96%, Freeport-McMoRan +2.75%, Yara International +2.63%, and Newmont Corporation +2.49%, while Nucor -3.54% and Albemarle -4.25%.
European Stock Indices Price Performance
Stoxx 600 +1.14% MTD and +5.09% YTD
DAX +2.75% MTD and +16.11% YTD
CAC 40 +0.43% MTD and +3.33% YTD
IBEX 35 +1.45% MTD and +16.26% YTD
FTSE MIB +2.54% MTD and +12.79% YTD
FTSE 100 +0.76% MTD and +4.73% YTD
This week, the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index is +1.14%. It was -0.54% on Wednesday, closing at 533.47.
So far this month in the STOXX Europe 600, Travel & Leisure is the leading sector, +4.81% MTD and -9.78% YTD, while Health Care is the weakest at -1.28% MTD and -4.59% YTD.
This week, Travel & Leisure outperformed within the STOXX Europe 600, at +4.81%, followed by Technology and Industrial Goods at +2.64% and +2.61%, respectively. Conversely, Health Care underperformed at -1.28%, followed by Retail and Utilities, at -0.58% and +0.04%, respectively.
Germany's DAX index was -0.58% on Wednesday, closing at 23,115.96. It was +2.75% for the week. France's CAC 40 index was -0.91% on Wednesday, closing at 7,626.84. It was +0.43% over the past week.
The UK's FTSE 100 index was +0.76% over the past week to 8,559.33. It was -0.44% on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, within the European STOXX 600 index, the Autos & Parts sector outperformed. BMW reported Q1 EPS of €3.38, surpassing the consensus estimate of €3.01. Although the company's sales figures fell short of expectations, it reaffirmed its outlook for 2025, highlighting stronger-than-anticipated profits. Within the parts segment, Schaeffler reported Q1 earnings before interest and taxes of €276 million, slightly above the €272 million consensus, and reiterated its full-year guidance.
The Basic Resources sector also demonstrated strength, supported by a firmer industrial metals complex following China's announcement of a stream of policy measures, including key rate cuts, aimed at mitigating the impact of US tariffs on its economy.
Conversely, the Retail and Real Estate sectors experienced the most significant declines. Health Care also lagged after the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) appointed Vinay Prasad, a known critic of the agency, as the new director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. Novo Nordisk garnered attention after reducing its sales forecasts for its Wegovy weight-loss drug, ahead of a US FDA ban on similar medications. Additionally, Ambu shares faced pressure following the release of disappointing Q1 revenue and earnings figures. The Energy and Telecom sectors also underperformed for the day.
Other Global Stock Indices Price Performance
MSCI World Index +0.87% MTD and -0.56% YTD
Hang Seng +2.59% MTD and +13.12% YTD
This week, the Hang Seng Index was +2.59% and the MSCI World Index was +0.87%.
Currencies
EUR -0.16% MTD and +9.25% YTD to $1.1308.
GBP -0.25% MTD and +6.24% YTD to $1.3291.
On Wednesday the dollar index increased +0.62% to 99.88. The Dollar Index is +0.25% so far this week, as well as +0.25% MTD but -7.96% YTD.
Following the Fed's widely expected decision to maintain interest rates, the US dollar strengthened slightly against major currencies, including the yen and the euro, on Wednesday.
The euro weakened against the US dollar by -0.53% to $1.1308.
The British pound also lost ground on Wednesday, however, it remained in close proximity to its highest levels in over three years. Investors await the BoE’s policy meeting scheduled for later today.
The pound ended the day -0.53% at $1.3291. It had reached $1.3444 on 28th April, its highest point since February 2022.
Money markets have priced in a significant 94 bps of BoE rate cuts by December, with an initial 25 bps reduction anticipated at today's meeting. The rate cut expectation is partly driven by concerns that US tariffs could negatively impact the global economic growth outlook.
The pound also weakened against the euro, -0.15% to 85.16 pence.
The US dollar appreciated by +0.90% to ¥143.74, reversing a three-day decline. Japanese markets had reopened following a two-day holiday.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 7 May 2025
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin +2.43% MTD and +3.41% YTD to $96,752.92.
Ethereum +0.31% MTD and -46.11% YTD to $1,798.98
Bitcoin is +2.43% and Ethereum +0.31% over the past 7 days. On Wednesday Bitcoin was +2.29% and Ethereum +1.60%.
Bitcoin has continued to rise over the past week as optimism over a potential de-escalation in the US-China tariff trade war is increasing demand for riskier assets. Bitcoin has also been benefitting from forecasts of a weakening dollar and a still favourable macroeconomic backdrop. For some investors the finite supply of Bitcoin positions it as an appealing asset for preserving purchasing power.
Another support to Bitcoin has been Spot Bitcoin ETFs as they continue to attract institutional investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and more safely gain exposure to Bitcoin. BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted a net $6.96 billion in inflows since the start of the year, the sixth-largest amount of all exchange-traded funds, according to data from Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed Gold ETF inflows so far this year according to ZeroHedge data.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 7 May 2025
Fixed Income
US 10-year yield +11.0 bps MTD and -30.2 bps YTD to 4.274%.
German 10-year yield +2.8 bps MTD and +10.6 bps YTD to 2.475%.
UK 10-year yield +1.8 bps MTD and -10.4 bps YTD to 4.464%.
US Treasury yields declined on Wednesday following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates at their current level, a widely anticipated outcome. The FOMC elected to keep the benchmark interest rate within the 4.25% - 4.50% target range. Nevertheless, the Committee acknowledged the prevailing economic uncertainty, characterised by growing risks of persistent inflationary pressures and increased joblessness.
During the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the significant uncertainty introduced by the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. He stated that this uncertainty necessitates a cautious, data-dependent approach to monetary policy, precluding any preemptive actions until the ramifications of the tariffs become clearer.
Following the release of the FOMC statement, the US Treasury yield curve flattened, suggesting a market perception that the Fed is unlikely to implement any easing measures at its next policy meeting in June. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note decreased by -2.8 bps to 4.274%. Similarly, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also fell, declining by -2.3 bps to 4.778%. On the shorter end of the yield curve, the two-year Treasury yield, which is typically more sensitive to near-term interest rate expectations, edged down by -0.2 bps to 3.781%. However, the 10-year yield is +11.0 bps this week.
The probability for a Fed 25 bps rate reduction at its June meeting on Wednesday was 19.8%, lower than 67.2% a week prior, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders are currently pricing in 77.5 bps of cuts by the Fed this year, 21.5 bps lower than last week’s 99.0 bps.
Across the Atlantic, as traders anticipated the Fed's policy meeting later on Wednesday—its first since Liberation Day—eurozone government bond yields edged lower.
Germany's 10-year bond yield was -6.9 bps, settling at 2.475%, a retreat from the three-week high reached on Tuesday.
German politics also held attention following the parliamentary election, in the second round of voting, of conservative leader Friedrich Merz as Chancellor. It came after an unexpected defeat in the first round, creating an uncertain start for his coalition government.
Investors are now keenly focussing on Merz's policy agenda, particularly after his early March announcement of a significant shift in Germany's debt brake and a substantial spending programme. That announcement had driven the country's 10-year yield above 2.90% before a subsequent decline in April due to safe-haven inflows. The prevailing focus is on the timeline for Germany to increase its spending and borrowing.
Longer-dated debt outperformed on Wednesday, with Germany's 30-year yield down -8.3 bps to 2.923%. On the shorter end of the curve, the German 2-year yield also decreased, -1.7 bps to 1.728%.
The BoE, the Riksbank, and Norges Bank are all scheduled to hold meetings today.
In the UK, 10-year gilts also fell on Wednesday, -5.6 bps to 4.464%.The UK 10-year yield is +1.8 bps over the past 7 days to 4.464%. The yield on 30-year gilts also rose this week, +4.5 bps to 5.253%.
The German 10-year yield was +2.8 bps this week. Germany's two-year bond yield is +4.0 bps this week. On the longer end of the curve, Germany's 30-year yield is +4.2 bps this week.
The spread between US 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds is now 179.9 bps, 8.2 bps higher than last week’s 171.7 bps.
Italy's 10-year yield declined by -7.1 bps to 3.551% on Wednesday, resulting in a spread of 107.6 bps compared to Germany's Bund yield and up from last week’s 111.8 bps spread. Italian bond yields, a benchmark for the eurozone periphery, are -1.4 bps this week to 3.551%.
The spread between French and German 10-year bond yields is 71.9 bps this week, -1.1 bps lower than last week at 73.0 bps.
Commodities
Gold spot +2.30% MTD and +28.19% YTD to $3,363.29 per ounce.
Silver spot -0.37% MTD and +12.44% YTD to $32.47 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude -0.41% MTD and -19.20% YTD to $57.98 a barrel.
Brent crude -3.63% MTD and -18.22% YTD to $61.00 a barrel.
Gold prices declined on Wednesday, falling by over one and a half percentage points, primarily due to a strengthening US dollar and increased optimism surrounding potential US - China trade negotiations. On Wednesday, spot gold retreated by -1.97% to settle at $3,363.29 per ounce. The US dollar index recorded a gain of +0.62%, further contributing to the downward pressure on gold. However, gold prices are still +2.30% this week as support continues to come from central bank purchases and safe haven inflows due to rising Middle East tensions. For example, official data revealed that the PBoC continued to increase its gold reserves for the sixth consecutive month in April.
This week, WTI and Brent are -0.41% and -3.63%, respectively.
Oil prices decreased on Wednesday as investors priced in a rise in US gasoline inventories according to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) ahead of the US - China trade discussions scheduled for this weekend in Geneva, Switzerland. This meeting represents an initial step towards resolving the ongoing trade dispute that has disrupted global supply chains.
Brent crude futures declined by $1.03 per barrel, or approximately -1.66%, to settle at $61.00 a barrel. WTI crude fell by $1.02, or -1.73%, to $57.98 a barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen to four-year lows earlier this week following OPEC+'s decision to accelerate output increases. This had exacerbated concerns about potential oversupply at a time when escalating US tariffs have heightened worries regarding demand.
The downward pressure on oil prices was somewhat mitigated by signals from some US producers this week indicating their intention to reduce capital expenditures, cautioning that the nation's oil output may have reached its peak.
Additionally, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Israel and the Houthis has contributed to an increase in the geopolitical risk premium, offering some support to prices.
EIA weekly report: Decline in US crude and distillate inventories amid surging jet fuel demand. The EIA reported that crude oil inventories decreased by 2 million barrels, reaching a total of 438.4 million barrels last week. Specifically, crude oil stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub saw a reduction, falling by 740,000 barrels.
According to EIA data, distillate inventories, which encompass diesel and heating oil, contracted by 1.1 million barrels during the week, settling at 106.7 million barrels.
A significant change was the US jet fuel product supplied, a key indicator of demand, which climbed to 2.02 million barrels per day (bpd) last week. This figure represents the highest level recorded since December 2019. Furthermore, the four-week average of jet fuel product supplied also reached its highest point in over five years.
In terms of refinery activity, crude oil runs experienced a slight decrease of 7,000 bpd. However, refinery utilisation rates saw a marginal increase of 0.4 percentage points, reaching 89% for the week.
Conversely, US gasoline inventories registered a modest increase of 200,000 barrels, totaling 225.7 million barrels for the week. Finally, net US crude oil imports rose by 673,000 bpd last week.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 7 May 2025
Key data to move markets
EUROPE
Thursday: German Industrial Production
Friday: A speech by ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.
Tuesday: Eurogroup Meeting, German ZEW Current Situation and Economic Sentiment surveys, and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment survey.
Wednesday: German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices and Spanish Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices.
UK
Thursday: BoE Interest Rate Decision, BoE Minutes, BoE Monetary Policy Report, and a speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.
Friday: A speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.
Monday: Speeches by Deputy Governor Clare Lombradelli and BoE external members Megan Greene, Catherine Mann, and Alan Taylor, and BRIC Like-for-Like Retail Sales.
Tuesday: Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change, Claimant Count Rate, Employment Change and ILO Unemployment Rate.
Wednesday: A speech by Deputy Governor for Financial Stability and MPC Member Sarah Breeden.
US
Thursday: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, and Unit Labour Costs.
Friday: Speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Governor Michael Barr, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.
Monday: Loan Officer Survey and Monthly Budget Statement.
Tuesday: CPI and Core CPI.
Wednesday: A speech by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
CHINA
Friday: Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance.
Saturday: CPI and PPI.
JAPAN
Thursday: Labour Cash Earnings.
Global Macro Updates
Fed moves. As expected, and despite calls by President Trump for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, the Fed kept interest rates on hold at a range of between 4.25 - 4.5%, for the third month in a row on Wednesday. It was a unanimous vote. Chair Jerome Powell said, “We think we’re in the right place to wait and see how things evolve. We don’t feel like we need to be in a hurry. We feel like it’s appropriate to be patient.”
In its statement the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said, “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further and the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.” Core inflation in March came in at 2.6%, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Powell said “If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they’re likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in unemployment.” He suggested that the effects of inflation stemming from the tariffs could be more than a one-off effect.
China rushes policy support before Saturday’s tariff talks. Ahead of tariff talks scheduled to take place in Geneva with the US on Saturday, the Chinese government has been taking steps to stimulate the domestic economy. In addition the PBoC cut the seven-day reverse repurchase rates by 10 basis points to 1.4% from 1.5%, which is expected, according to PBoC governor Pan Gongsheng, to lower the loan prime rate, the main policy rate, by around 10 basis points. The PBoC also lowered the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), which determines the amount of cash banks must hold in reserves, by 50 basis points. This is expected to release 1 trillion yuan, about $139 billion, into the market. The government has, as noted by CNBC, also announced measures to support financing for several key sectors, including technology and real estate, along with establishing of a 500-billion-yuan relending tool for consumption and elderly care. In addition, the PBoC will reduce mortgage rates under the nation’s housing provident fund, a government-backed housing lender, by 25 basis points. Rates on five-year loans for first-time homebuyers will be trimmed to 2.6% from 2.85%. It will also gradually lower the amount of cash that auto financing firms must hold in reserves to zero from the current 5%.
According to Bloomberg news, these across-the-board rate cuts alongside these other steps could pump 2.1 trillion yuan ($291 billion) into the economy. In short, China appears to be willing to take more drastic actions to counteract any potential impact from President Trump’s tariffs.This may be due to a resilient yuan allowing PBoC to think about how to loosen monetary policy instead of defending the currency to prevent capital outflows. However, these are still not the “bazooka” measures that markets may be hoping for given that the growth rate for China for this year is still forecast,according to several Wall Street banks including Citi and rating agency Moody’s, to come in at around 4%, well under the 5% target.
Is Germany on the path to recovery? Following a pivotal day in German politics, Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU/CSU, was elected Chancellor on Tuesday, bringing an end to a six-month period of political uncertainty. Despite an initial setback in the first round of voting where he garnered only 310 votes, Merz secured the chancellorship in a subsequent vote with 325 votes. This victory, however, was three votes shy of his coalition's total seat count, highlighting potential fragility within the newly formed CDU/CSU-SPD government. The coalition had started with ambitious plans, including a substantial €500 billion infrastructure package and amendments to the debt brake —allowing only 1% to affect the ordinary budget while permitting additional spending through new debt— designed to enable enhanced defence spending.
This focus on bolstering national security is further underscored by recent proposals from Germany's Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius. According to Reuters, Pistorius aims to increase the country's ordinary defence budget to over €60 billion starting in 2025, a significant rise from the current €52 billion allocation. Analysts note that Germany's comprehensive defence spending could approach €87 billion in 2025, meeting NATO's 2% GDP target. While Germany amended its debt brake regulations for defence expenditures in March, analysts suggest this adjustment is unlikely to significantly impact the defence sector until 2026 at the earliest. Merz’ new government faces the complex task of executing its ambitious agenda, including these significant defence commitments, while simultaneously preserving coalition cohesion.
Notwithstanding potential political headwinds, recent economic indicators in Germany point towards an encouraging, albeit tentative, recovery. German factory orders for March revealed a surprisingly robust industrial sector, with factory orders experiencing a sharp increase of 3.6% m/o/m, significantly outpacing the consensus forecast of 1.3% and recovering from a flat prior month. Excluding volatile large orders, new orders demonstrated solid growth at 3.2% higher than in February. This positive monthly development contrasts with a more subdued less volatile three-month comparison, where overall orders in Q1 were 2.3% q/o/q lower, though they showed a 0.5% q/o/q increase when large orders were excluded.
The March upswing in factory orders was broad-based, with primary contributions from the manufacture of pharmaceuticals (+17.3%), electrical equipment (+14.5%), and transport equipment (+17.3%). Incoming orders for capital goods rose by 3.7% m/o/m and intermediate goods saw an increase of 8.7% m/o/m. Foreign demand was a key driver, with orders from abroad up 4.7% m/o/m, buoyed by an 8.0% m/o/m increase from within the eurozone and a 2.8% m/o/m rise from outside the bloc, while domestic orders also picked up by 2.0%.
Corroborating this positive momentum, Germany's plant and equipment manufacturers (VDMA) reported a 4% y/o/y increase in orders for March, marking the second consecutive month of growth. This rise was primarily fuelled by major investment projects from other European countries, with eurozone orders increasing by 19%. The VDMA report also highlighted pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, and transport equipment as contributing sectors, aligning with the broader factory order data.
Improved production levels have also been reflected in recent PMI data, with the output index hitting a 37-month high of 52.1 in April. However, PMI panelists and VDMA members suggested that some of this strength, along with new business wins across Europe and Asia, might be attributed to customers bringing forward orders ahead of anticipated increases in customs duties. Despite these encouraging current signals, Germany's engineering and manufacturing sectors face headwinds. Many companies, particularly VDMA members (around 60%), are concerned about the potential heavy impact of new US tariff policies.
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