According to CME Group economists Samantha Azzarello and Blu Putnam, due to the present global economic situation, demand for oil and manufactured goods is being negatively affected, hence setting a downward trend for the coming year as well. This would be the third year in a row in which the BRIC countries have experienced a major slowdown in economic growth.
Putnam and Azzarello insist that the slowdown is more severe than many had predicted, thus suggesting a continuing downward pull to prices of crude oil, copper and several other commodities. The situation will unlikely change before these emerging economies get back on their feet and experience accelerated growth once again.
In the BRIC countries, real, ''size-weighted'' GDP is expected to increase about 4.7% next year, following estimated growth of about 4.9% this year, Azzarrello and Putnam wrote. That compares to a recent peak of 8.1% in 2010.
Once the BRIC countries' currencies start being appreciated, it would be signalling the confirmation of two important new trends. Firstly, it would show that the global deleveraging process is abating, and secondly, the ability to attract new capital and economic growth must return to the BRIC nations. All in all, the BRIC countries are all trying to cope with the global slowdown, but each one of them has to cope with its own impediments.
Although it appears that 2013 will be the end of the slow growth run, and a BRIC recession seems to have been repelled, it is still too early to forecast a new growth cycle.