Fixed Income Briefing March 2026

Renée Friedman, Global Head of Research

• The dollar has risen so far this month as the US- Israeli-led war with Iran has led to investors rushing into the safe haven currency. The dollar has also been supported by a subsequent repricing of interest rate expectations. The US dollar index is around +1.62% MTD, reaching 99.19 as of 24 March.
   
• US economic data was already showing signs of weakness prior to the outbreak of the US-Israel war with Iran. Nonfarm payrolls showed an unexpected drop of 92,000 in February 2026, marking a sharp reversal from January's 130,000 increase and falling far short of expectations for a 59,000 gain. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, driven by declines in healthcare, information, and government sectors, partly due to strikes and bad weather. According to ADP, private sector employment increased by 63,000 jobs in February and pay was up 4.5% y/o/y.

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