 | Horacio Coutino, multi-asset strategist |
“When the market goes up, then I’m definitely a public investor, but then when the market doesn’t do well, I switch to, you know, venture and growth… but I think that in general, now, you have to be a life cycle investor.”
— Phillip Laffont joking in a CNBC interview, and perhaps inadvertently accurately describing the dilemma facing institutional investors.
June witnessed significant financial market volatility driven by headline risks, including persistent trade tensions despite US assurances and escalating US-Iran geopolitical friction impacting energy markets. This monetary divergence contributed to continued US dollar depreciation, reflecting a rotation away from US assets and a more favorable economic outlook for Europe.
This report will analyze:
- S&P 500 earnings expectations for Q2.
- Sectoral earnings growth rates.
- The S&P 500 sectors’ net profit margins.
- Sector-specific monthly performance for US and European equities.
A notable shift in investor behaviour is underway, challenging the dollar's safe-haven status and its correlation with yields. US yields decreased, while German bund yields rose, narrowing spreads and suggesting a potential global asset reallocation from US Treasuries to other sovereign bonds, influenced by evolving US trade policy. The sustained negative US Net International Investment Position further highlights its deteriorating financial standing. These dynamics underscore the increasing importance of active and selective management, particularly favoring international markets, which offer a more compelling risk-reward profile amid fading US exceptionalism and rising fiscal concerns
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