Will CPI surprise to the upside?

S&P 500 -0.32% to 7,728.20

US 10-year yield -1.7 basis points to 4.696%

Spot gold -0.50% to $4,368.25 an ounce

DXY +0.08% to 99.85

What to look out for today

Companies reporting on Wednesday, 12 August: Cisco Systems, Tencent Holdings, Nebius Group

Key data to move markets today

EU: German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices and Italian CPI 

USA: CPI and Monthly Budget Statement

JAPAN: PPI

Global Macro Updates

US CPI preview. July core CPI will be released on Wednesday, 12 August, at 8:30 am EDT. Consensus expects a 0.2% monthly increase following June’s 0.02% decline, which marked the first contraction since May 2020. Annual core inflation is forecast to ease to 2.5% from 2.6%, the lowest level since February.

Several economists characterised June’s softer reading as an anomaly, arguing that services inflation should return toward trend in July. BofA noted that the sharp June declines in motor vehicle insurance and wireless services are unlikely to recur, although some analysts expect shelter inflation to remain relatively subdued as the broader slowdown continues.

Core goods inflation is also expected to remain contained, although UBS sees upside risk in information technology categories, including computers, accessories, and software, based on Adobe Digital Price Index trends and Apple price increases. JPMorgan economists recently estimated that every 10% increase in technology hardware costs adds 0.1 percentage point to core CPI, while memory-price shocks could contribute 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points to inflation levels. Autos may also reverse June’s declines, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 0.5% increase in used-car prices and a 0.1% rise in new-vehicle prices.

Views remain mixed on how the inflation data may affect Fed policy. Citi argued that continued disinflation in the coming months should give the Fed reason to refrain from additional rate hikes. By contrast, BofA said its forecasts suggest persistent inflation could bring FOMC voters such as Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson closer to supporting a September increase.

US home sales continue to fall. Sales of existing homes fell to a three-month low in July as elevated prices and mortgage rates continued to weigh on the housing market. Contract closings decreased 1.7% in July to an annualised rate of 4.06 million, according to National Association of Realtors figures. July existing-home sales were slightly above the 4.04 million consensus estimate, but below June’s revised 4.13 million reading, which was previously reported at 4.09 million.

The median home price rose 1.8% from a year earlier to a record $440,600. Even so, the report pointed to improved affordability as wage growth continued to outpace price gains, though stalled inventory growth could renew upward pressure on prices.

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.34%
Nasdaq 100 -0.33%
S&P 500 -0.32%, with 8 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 down

US equities were down on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was -0.34%, or down 184.13 points, to 53,791.85. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were weighed down by the -2.09% drop in Amazon shares and Alphabet’s -3.61% decline. The Nasdaq Composite fell -0.60%, or down 159.91 points, to 26,445.45, while the S&P 500 declined -0.32%, or down 24.91 points, to 7,728.20.

Additionally, the VIX index, known as Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’, sank below 15 this week, far below its long-term average. As noted by the Financial Times, the low cost of volatility suggests investors may be complacent as they appear to see little chance of a flare-up in market tensions, despite a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz looking increasingly unlikely. Oil prices are rising to nearly $90 a barrel and government borrowing costs continue to rise. 

In corporate news, Fermi shares rose after the company announced that AI cloud provider TensorWave would become the first customer at its Texas data centre site. The company announced a $6.5 billion, 15-year data centre lease, covering an initial 222-megawatt phase. Fermi, a startup co-founded last year by former US energy secretary and Texas governor Rick Perry, plans to build a large AI campus on land owned by the Texas Tech University System.

Bloomberg news reported that Anthropic has reached a $9.1 billion agreement with Riot Platforms, a Bitcoin miner that sells AI data centre capacity. The deal gives Anthropic 191 megawatts of computing capacity from Riot’s Rockdale, Texas, campus and is expected to generate $9.1 billion in revenue for Riot. The contract runs through June 2048 and includes an extension option that could lift Riot’s total sales to as much as $16.1 billion.

Intel plans to raise $20 billion through an underwritten public offering of 210.5 million shares at $95 each, up from its previously announced $15 billion offering. The chipmaker said it will use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, citing strong AI-driven compute demand. It granted underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to 31.6 million additional shares at the offering price. 

Corporate Earnings Reports

Posted on Tuesday, 11 August from The Pulse, our real-time AI-driven news tool. Available exclusively on the EXANTE Web Platform

Super Micro Computer reported Q4 FY26 revenue of $11.1bn (vs $11.6bn expected) and adjusted EPS of $1.70 (vs $0.96 expected). Gross margin was 17.6%, up 800bps y/y, though partly due to one-time contract deferrals and lower tariff costs. The company issued $4.2bn of mandatory convertible preferred stock, now affecting EPS calculations. For Q1 FY27, revenue guidance of $14.5bn-$15.5bn and adjusted EPS of $1.01-$1.10 both exceeded consensus. Full-year FY27 revenue guidance was $65bn-$72bn, well above estimates. CEO Charles Liang said the Total AI/IT Solutions strategy drove strong results, with over $60bn in new orders and a record backlog entering fiscal 2027.

CoreWeave reported Q2 2026 revenue of $2.58bn, up +112.5% y/y and above the $2.56bn estimate, with a GAAP EPS loss of -$1.14 (narrower than the -$1.20 estimate). Adjusted EBITDA was $1.51bn vs a $1.43bn estimate. The company raised its FY26 revenue guidance to $12.4bn-$13.2bn (above consensus) and its adjusted operating income guide to $960mn-$1.15bn. Q3 revenue guidance was $3.45bn-$3.60bn. The revenue backlog reached $104bn, excluding $25bn of new commitments in early Q3. Active power hit 1.5GW, with a target of 8GW+ by 2030. CEO Michael Intrator said the quarter marked an inflection point as scale translated into expanding operating leverage and accelerating customer demand. Mizuho maintained a Hold rating, raising its price target to $115 from $100, while Rosenblatt reiterated Buy with a $250 target.

Lumentum reported fiscal Q4 results after the close. Revenue was $1.01bn vs $988mn est (up +109.3% y/y), and adjusted EPS was $3.23 vs $2.97 est. GAAP EPS was -$84.65, including a $7.8bn non-cash loss on debt extinguishment. Non-GAAP gross margin hit 50.4% (up +1,260bps y/y). For Q1, the company guided revenue to $1.25bn vs $1.16bn est and EPS to $4.20 vs $3.63 est. CEO Michael Hurlston said the firm was reaching its target revenue model more than a quarter ahead of schedule, driven by AI data centre demand for optical connectivity.

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 -0.13%
DAX +0.26%
FTSE 100 -0.17%

Commodities

Gold spot -0.50% to $4,368.25 an ounce
Silver spot -1.61% to $64.68 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate +1.3% to $83.20 a barrel
Brent crude 1.4% to $88.91a barrel

Spot gold retreated from a two-month peak on Tuesday ahead of today’s CPI print. Spot gold fell -0.50% to $4,368.25 an ounce as investors took profits and squared positions. US gold futures finished up +0.5% at $4,441.10 an ounce. 

Spot silver was -1.61% to $64.68 an ounce due to a stronger US dollar, a slight rise in Treasury yields and profit-taking.

Oil prices settled up on Tuesday to a one-week high as concerns grew about supply disruptions from the Middle East. The newly appointed secretary of Iran’s National Security Council is reported to have said that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as long as the US does not change its behaviour and accept Iran's conditions to end the war. According to a Reuters report, shipping data showed that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to six vessels on Monday, compared with a 10-day average of about 11 vessels. Before the war, daily traffic through the waterway averaged between 125 and 140 vessels a day.

Brent futures rose $1.19, or +1.4%, to settle at $88.91 a barrel, while WTI crude was up $1.07, or +1.3%, to settle at $83.20. 

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis attacked a Saudi ship carrying military equipment in Bab el-Mandeb, between the Red Sea and the open Indian Ocean, Houthi- run news agency Saba reported.

The US military fired on a Panama-flagged container ship, la Nova, 71 nautical miles off the coast of Pakistan as it attempted to transit the Gulf of Oman to an Iranian port in violation of a US naval blockade on Iran.

In Libya, renewed violence in the city of Zawiya has resulted in the state oil firm, the National Oil Corporation, saying it could declare force majeure if drone attacks on energy assets in the city continued. 

The UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has moved to offer spot crude in a tender, its eighth issued since the start of June, as it attempts to move oil from inside the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said.

In Europe, the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday it attacked an oil refinery in the Russian city of Orsk.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 11 August 2026

Currencies

EUR -0.04% to $1.1537
GBP +0.01% to $1.3507
Bitcoin -0.46% to $63,645.03
Ethereum +0.55% to $1,883.54

The US dollar was very slightly up again on Tuesday ahead of today’s CPI print, with the dollar index moving up +0.08% to 99.85.

The Japanese yen edged down -0.03% to ¥159.27 per dollar. However, the yen has relinquished some of its gains following last month’s coordinated intervention by the US Treasury and the Japanese government, raising the prospect of further intervention. 

The euro fell slightly, -0.04% to $1.1537 and the British pound edged higher by +0.01% to $1.3507.

Fixed Income

US 10-year Treasury -1.7 basis points to 4.696%
German 10-year Bund -2.2 basis points to 3.170%
UK 10-year Gilt -3.1 basis points to 4.966%

US Treasuries fell slightly on Tuesday as traders await today’s CPI data. Although this won’t capture the impact of the most recent rise in energy costs, it may still help set traders’ expectations for September's FOMC meeting.

The 10-year yield was -1.7 basis points to 4.696%, while the 30-year yield was -0.9 bps lower at 5.245%.

On the shorter end of the curve, the yield on the 2-year note, which is sensitive to market expectations for the Fed funds rate, slipped also -1.7 bps to 4.226%.

The Treasury's $58 billion auction of three-year notes was well received, with the debt pricing below forecasts at 4.291%, indicating investors did not demand a premium to absorb the supply. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.71x, higher than the 2.61x average. Although 3-year yields have risen by approximately +11.0 bps since the last auction, following yesterday’s 3-year note auction, three-year yields declined -1.5 bps to 4.291%.

The yield curve was only slightly wider on Tuesday ahead of today’s CPI and tomorrow’s PPI numbers, with the 2s10s yield curve at 47.0 bps unchanged from late Monday. It hit 47.6 bps earlier in the session, its steepest level since 22 May. 

According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 49.9% probability of a Fed rate hike at the 16 September meeting, down from 58.4% last week.

Across the Atlantic, UK gilt yields outperformed European peers, with the UK’s 10-year gilt declining by -3.1 bps to 4.966%. 

Euro zone bond yields fell on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield dropped -2.2 bps to 3.170%.

Germany’s 2-year yield, which tracks expectations for the ECB deposit rate, slipped -0.4 bps to 2.796%.

Money markets priced in another 39 bps of ECB tightening this year.

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield fell -1.3 bps to 3.947%, while France’s 10-year OAT yield edged up +0.2 bps to 3.979%.

Longer-dated yields remained under pressure, with France’s 30-year yield rising to 4.800%, its highest level since 2008.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 11 August 2026

While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of this information, EXT Ltd. (hereafter known as “EXANTE”) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this publication or any of the information, opinions, or conclusions contained in this publication. The findings and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of EXANTE. Any action taken upon the information contained in this publication is strictly at your own risk. EXANTE will not be liable for any loss or damage in connection with this publication.