Fixed Income Briefing July 2025
Economic and US Treasury Market Review.
July review: Through a glass darkly
We may be at an inflection point for US equities. July witnessed significant financial market volatility driven by headline risks from potential trade deals and tariff threats, with White House economic advisers constantly trying to reassure investors of successful US engagement with other trade partners.
Will the UK sail into stagflation?
The UK faces stubbornly high inflation, a softening labour market, and a growing budget black hole.
Who’s next in the firing line?
Equities edge up, the dollar drops, gold rises, and oil falls as new tariffs come into effect.
How will Fed officials react to Trump’s changes?
Markets await the President’s suggested replacements as policymakers speak today.
How will Trump change the Fed?
Investors worry over institutional independence and policy uncertainty.
Tariffs on, risk off
The TORO trade begins as US exceptionalism fades and risk-off sentiment rises.
Can Europe be a beacon for investors?
Should investors still be in thrall to the idea of US exceptionalism?
Will it be a hole in one for Trump’s trade wars?
Trump’s global tariff wins, questions on Fed independence, and AI stocks continued rise.
Can the Fed survive Trump?
US equities hit highs, the dollar weakens, and yields are mixed.
Who is winning in the tariff ‘game of chicken’?
President Trump continues to issue tariff threats.
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