Earnings Scoreboard - Discounting the first derivative

AI CapEx referendum, trade regime beneficiaries and industrial demand resiliency — themes that define this week

Pricing the buildout: Alphabet Q2 print as the first derivative. The AI CapEx question reaches its most direct test since Nvidia Q1 earnings, as the collision between AI CapEx conviction and AI CapEx fatigue plays out ahead of Alphabet's Q2 print. More than any individual earnings driver, this week will start to test the durability of $754 billion in hyperscaler CapEx expected for 2026. Alphabet’s commentary on CapEx durability, Google Cloud margins and Google Advertising resilience carries unusual weight this week. Its report will be the first among the four major hyperscalers and will set the frame for Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Oracle in the weeks ahead. GE Vernova, positioned in the Energy and Electrification layer of our AI Seven Layer investable framework from the latest Alpha Vibes note, offers the physical-world read-through, as power availability for data centres has become the key constraint. With the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 9.97% last week, these earnings arrive against fragile positioning. The main risk is not a weak quarter itself, but a crowded, non- linear unwind if the second-derivative names disappoint.

This tension extends directly to ServiceNow and Intel, both beneficiaries rather than originators of AI infrastructure spending. ServiceNow is expected to show that enterprise AI adoption is converting into durable subscription revenue, not becoming an extended trial. Its year-to-date underperformance highlights investor concern that AI-related feature spending is not translating into margin expansion quickly enough to offset rising operating expenses from recent acquisitions. Intel faces a more complex test, serving as a domestic- manufacturing geopolitical hedge, a potential AI compute beneficiary through its data-centre and foundry ambitions and a turnaround story with implied post-earnings volatility that underscores investors’ uncertainty about its operational turnaround.

Industrial resiliency and energy disruption. A second major thread running through the week is the divergence between industrial recovery driven by tariff relief and energy services softness tied to geopolitical disruption. GM's improved guidance last quarter, built on a roughly $500 million tariff-relief windfall from a Supreme Court ruling, illustrates how policy uncertainty has become a genuine first-order earnings variable for domestic manufacturers. This week's report will reveal whether that relief has proven durable through Q2 or whether subsequent tariff actions have partially reversed the benefit.

Halliburton and SLB's prints this week will reveal how much of a continued drag the Middle East conflict imposes on global drilling activity. Both companies have quantified this headwind in the range of 6 to 9 cents per share, even as North American completion activity shows genuine signs of reacceleration. This bifurcation between AI-adjacent industrial strength, represented by GE Vernova, and geopolitically exposed energy-services weakness, is likely to remain one of the more durable sector-rotation stories of H2 2026. Additionally, 3M's tariff-cost commentary this week adds a third data point on how much pricing power domestic industrials genuinely retain in the current trade environment.

Aerospace backlogs and copper signals test the depth of industrial demand. Finally, the defence, aerospace and materials complex offer two additional narrative threads worth tracking closely alongside the AI and macro-policy stories. GE Aerospace’s raised guidance and record backlog last week, alongside Morgan Stanley’s constructive sector view on resilient commercial aerospace demand and favourable long-term defence-spending trends, make Lockheed Martin and RTX’s reports direct tests of whether that optimism extends across the primes or remains concentrated in commercial engine aftermarket exposure. Lockheed's record backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility and RTX's Pratt & Whitney GTF engine delivery cadence remains a genuine swing factor given the segment's recent history of supply-chain and durability challenges. Separately, Nucor's pre-announced EPS guidance of $4.70 to $4.80, together with Steel Dynamics' prior-week report, confirms that domestic steel producers are enjoying a genuine and likely tariff-supported pricing windfall. A dynamic Freeport-McMoRan's copper commentary this week will implicitly test from the materials-demand side given copper's parallel exposure to both electrification and AI- infrastructure buildout themes.

Taken together, this week’s calendar is less likely to be defined by a single company delivering a decisive upside or downside earnings surprise than by the macro narrative that proves most durable as the broader Q2 season moves into its busiest phase. The key tests will be whether AI CapEx conviction can withstand signs of fatigue, whether tariff relief remains intact or begins to reverse and whether the divergence between geopolitically driven energy weakness and defence strength continues to widen.

This week’s preview: Detroit’s second act, Alphabet’s CapEx in focus, AI’s energy layer, Section 232 dividend, and defence execution risk

Major Earnings on the Docket

▪  General Motors reports on Tuesday, before the market opens. Following a Q1 impacted by tariff provisions and EV segment losses, the market is looking for stabilisation. Current consensus places EPS at $3.19, reflecting a y/o/y increase of 26.3%, on revenue of $47.012 billion, a decline of 0.2% compared to the previous year. Sales in GM North America are expected to fall by 1.3% y/o/y to $38.971 billion, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly decline in the region. GM International sales are forecast to rise 2.3% y/o/y to $3.401 billion. However, Operating Income for North America is anticipated to increase 32.4% y/o/y to $3.198 billion, reflecting an Operating Margin of 8.2%, an increase of 209 bps from 6.1% a year ago. The International segment is expected to present a more moderate expansion in its Operating Margin, by 18 bps to 6.3% from 6.1% a year ago. GM raised its full-year EBIT guidance to $13.5 to $15.5 billion following a Supreme Court ruling that reduced its expected gross tariff costs to $2.5 to $3.5 billion from a prior $3 to $4 billion estimate. The key question for GM’s Q2 print is whether that roughly $500 million full-year tariff-relief benefit has held, or whether new tariff measures have eroded it.

Four items will frame the market reaction. First, EBIT performance relative to the raised full-year framework since the Q1 beat was driven partly by North America margin strength, with 10.1% EBIT margin. The market will want to see this as sustained rather than a one-off. Second, whether management reaffirms, raises again or trims full-year guidance given the shifting tariff and trade-policy backdrop through the Q2. Third, continued improvement in EV segment losses, an area GM flagged explicitly as a mitigating factor against tariff costs in Q1. Fourth, digital and software revenue growth from OnStar and Super Cruise, which forms a growing part of GM's valuation narrative as the company transitions toward software- defined vehicle services. GM's Q2 is best understood as the second data point in the auto sector's ongoing tariff-resilience story that began with its strong Q1 beat. How the company frames tariff cost trajectory this quarter will shape sentiment across the domestic auto and industrial ecosystems.

▪  3M also reports Q2 on Tuesday before the market opens. Consensus calls for EPS of $2.25, up 3.9% y/o/y, and revenue of $6.405 billion, up 4.0% y/o/y. The company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last twelve quarters by an average surprise of 7.9%. The Safety and Industrial segment, spanning personal safety equipment, adhesives, tapes and abrasives, is expected to be the primary growth driver in Q2, with the segment’s sales anticipated to grow 5.2% y/o/y to $3.005 billion and an Operating Margin expansion of 149 bps to 26.7% from 25.2% in Q2 2025. The main signal to watch is how well 3M absorbs tariff-related and higher commodity costs. The company has previously flagged an estimated $850 million annual tariff headwind. The balance between pricing actions and operational efficiencies will offer a genuine read of industrial manufacturers’ pricing power in the current trade environment.

▪  Halliburton also reports Q2 on Tuesday before the bell. Consensus calls for EPS of $0.54, anticipating a decline of 2.3% y/o/y, on revenue of $5.496 billion, implying a modest 0.3% decline. The quarter is shaped by two offsetting forces: improving North American completions activity, where fracturing schedule gaps have largely closed and premium equipment utilisation is tightening, against continued Middle East disruptions that management has estimated could reduce EPS by 7 to 9 cents this quarter. Completion and Production revenue is expected to fall 0.5% y/o/y to $3.155 billion, with segment Operating Income down 6.1% y/o/y to $482 million. Within the segment, projected North America revenue growth of 13.8% y/o/y is expected to partially offset a 15.4% y/o/y decline in International revenue. Drilling and Evaluation revenue is expected to increase 0.7% y/o/y to $2.356 billion.

Halliburton's print functions as the first read this week of whether global oilfield services demand is stabilising after a rocky start to 2026, and how geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in international drilling activity.

▪  GE Vernova reports Wednesday before the bell, following a blowout Q1 that raised the bar for this print. That quarter delivered EPS of $17.44 against a $1.95 estimate on new orders that increased 120.0% y/o/y to $22.435 billion and FCF of $4.791 billion, exceeding all of 2025's total of $3.710 billion. This prompted the company to raise full-year guidance across the board. Total backlog increased to $163.482 billion and management subsequently guided Q2 Electrification revenue of $3.3 to $3.5 billion and Power segment organic growth of 15% to 17%.

Four signals matter for this print. First, whether Power segment orders and EBITDA margin (16.3% in Q1, up from 11.6% a year earlier) can sustain that trajectory amid what management has described as a three-year lead time and 2030 gas-turbine slot reservations already selling out. For Q2, the Street has pencilled in an increase of 17.6% y/o/y in Power revenue to $5.596 billion, with the segment’s EBITDA increasing 30.4% y/o/y to $1.015 billion, reflecting a 178 bps margin expansion to 18.1%. Second, Electrification segment momentum, given orders reached $7.1 billion last quarter, roughly 2.5x quarterly revenue, driven by data-centre demand and the Prolec GE acquisition, with backlog having more than quadrupled since 2022. For Q2, consensus expects Eletrification EBITDA margin to reach 18.6%, a 398 bps margin expansion from 14.6% in Q2 2025, on revenue growth of 56.3% y/o/y to $3.440 billion. Third, continued Wind segment losses, guided at $200 to $300 million in EBITDA losses for the quarter, and whether tariff mitigation efforts are containing the damage to the previously guided $250 to $350 million full-year tariff impact. Fourth, any incremental commentary on data-centre power demand. GE Vernova sits at the centre of the AI infrastructure buildout's physical layer (turbines, transformers and grid equipment) rather than its compute layer, giving its order book commentary outsized read-through value for utilities and power- equipment suppliers.

▪  Alphabet reports Wednesday after the close, in arguably, the most consequential print of the week and of the season to date. Alphabet enters Q2 with an FY 2026 CapEx guide of $180 to $190 billion, raised from the prior range, and the debate has moved past whether Alphabet can grow profitably and toward whether that spending is converting into a durable competitive advantage. Consensus estimates EPS of $2.88, reflecting 24.5% y/o/y growth, on revenue of $116.999 billion.

Four signals will frame the market reaction. First, Google Cloud growth; the segment is expected to maintain 63.2% y/o/y growth in Q2, after expanding 63.4% in Q1 as backlog nearly doubled to more than $460 billion. As the AI infrastructure investment cycle matures, investors will look for evidence that growth remains durable rather than slowing. Second, Cloud Operating margin trajectory; Google Cloud ran at 32.9% in Q1 Operating margin versus AWS's 37.7% in Q1, and any sign of margin expansion could be read as evidence the CapEx is generating Operating leverage. Third, Google Advertising growth, given persistent scrutiny over whether AI Overviews and competing AI answer engines are cannibalising rather than expanding the core search franchise. For Q2, the Street has pencilled in 14.2% y/o/y growth to $81.492 billion. Fourth, the focus will be on the CapEx run-rate and whether management reaffirms, raises or qualifies the $180 to $190 billion full-year range. Q2 is also expected to mark Alphabet’s first negative FCF quarter in five years, with estimates pointing to a $113 million outflow after $10.116 billion of positive FCF in Q1.

Alphabet's Q2 is the opening act of what could be a stress test of the AI infrastructure investment thesis. Whether this level of CapEx is creating competitive advantages and new revenue streams, or simply pressuring margins with an uncertain payoff, is the central question. As the first major hyperscaler to report this cycle, Alphabet’s tone will shape expectations for Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon in the weeks ahead.

▪  Tesla reports after the close on Wednesday. Consensus expects EPS of $0.52, representing 30.3% y/o/y growth, on revenue of $26.070 billion, up 15.9% y/o/y. The company enters the print following Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles. Investors will focus first on whether automotive gross margins can stabilise near the Q2 estimate of 19.4%, after 21.1% in Q1 and 17.2% a year earlier, against a backdrop of continued pricing pressure. Additionally, the effect of Tesla’s $25 billion CapEx plan for robotaxi and AI initiatives on near-term FCF are a source of concern. For Q2, the Street expects FCF to turn negative for the first time since Q1 2024, with an estimated outflow of $3.220 billion. The implications extend beyond Tesla. Margin performance under ongoing EV pricing pressure, together with management commentary on energy storage, will be watched as signals of whether EV demand can be sustained without incentive support across the auto-electrification complex.

Beyond the numbers, the call is a referendum on the narrative. The focus will be on the economics of the robotaxi programme now operating in Austin and Miami, the cadence of Full Self-Driving, progress on Optimus and a CapEx plan that could keep FCF negative for the year. With the shares trading at 347.9x trailing earnings, the stock will move on the story rather than the quarter.

▪  ServiceNow also reports Q2 earnings Wednesday after the close. The Street anticipates revenue of $3.927 billion, implying 22.2% y/o/y growth, and EPS of $0.86, up 5.0% y/o/y. The company has beaten estimates of Total Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) in all four trailing quarters by an average surprise of 3.3%. The key metrics are Now Assist traction, ServiceNow’s generative-AI layer, where management has raised its internal annual-contract-value target to about $1.5 billion and if the number of customers spending more than $5 million continues to rise quickly.

The integration of recent acquisitions, Moveworks, Armis and Veza, is expected to support subscription growth, but also weigh on near-term margins amid intensifying AI-platform competition from Salesforce, Microsoft and Oracle. ServiceNow’s print will test whether enterprise AI investment is translating into durable, monetisable subscription revenue, or whether early adopters are becoming more sceptical about AI feature spending being able to generate returns quickly enough to offset rising operating expenses.

▪  Freeport-McMoRan reports Thursday before the market opens. Revenue is anticipated to decline 11.5% y/o/y to $6.713 billion, but EPS is projected to increase 12.5% y/o/y to $0.61. The company has cut its full-year 2026 copper sales forecast to 3.1 billion pounds and reduced gold sales guidance to 650,000 ounces, weighted to H2, citing delays at the Grasberg Block Cave in Indonesia mine tied to wet ore conditions and infrastructure modifications. For Q2, revenue of PT Freeport Indonesia is anticipated to contract 67.3% y/o/y to $1.118 billion.

Against that operational caution sits a policy tailwind: the Section 232 duty of 50% on semi-finished copper has kept the COMEX price roughly thirty percent above the London benchmark. With close to a third of Freeport's output sold into the US, that premium accrues directly to the company. Investors will focus first on realised prices, following Q1 copper and gold realisations of $5.78 per pound and $4,889 per ounce, respectively, and second, the pace of the Grasberg recovery and the Indonesian smelter’s contribution.

Given copper's structural role in both electrification and AI-driven data-centre buildouts, Freeport's pricing commentary, will be interpreted as a read on physical materials constraints underlying the broader energy-transition and AI-infrastructure narratives.

▪  Lockheed Martin reports Thursday before market open and offers the week’s undiluted defence read. Consensus expects EPS of $7.20, up 393.2% y/o/y with revenue of $19.339 billion, implying 6.5% y/o/y growth. The company maintained full-year guidance for mid-single-digit sales growth at a range of $77.5 to $80 billion, EPS of $29.35 to $30.25, and $9.435 to $9.685 billion in Operating Income against a record $193.622 billion backlog, roughly 2.5x projected midpoint of 2026 sales guidance. That level of forward-order visibility can buffer the story against earnings volatility. However, the near-term market reaction will hinge on the pace of F-35 deliveries, the ramp-up of PAC-3 and THAAD missile-defence programmes as allied demand rises and the company’s ability to avoid the classified-programme charges that have repeatedly disrupted its re-rating.

For Q2, sales are expected to rise y/o/y across Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control and Rotary and Mission Systems by 2.5%, 17.3%, and 6.9%, respectively. A clean quarter with segment margins expanding would reinforce the rearmament thesis; another charge would revive the concern that a strong order book is not translating cleanly into profit.

▪  RTX reports Thursday before the open as the hybrid of the aerospace and defence cycles. The Street has pencilled in EPS of $1.66, up 6.37% y/o/y, on revenue of $22.891 billion, implying growth of 6.1% y/o/y. The strength should come from the commercial aftermarket at Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney, a read corroborated by GE Aerospace last week, and from a record defence backlog that stood at $271 billion, split between $162 billion commercial and $109 billion defence.

For Q2, all three segments are expected to deliver modest operating-margin expansion. Collins Aerospace revenue is projected to rise 3.4% y/o/y to $7.859 billion, with operating margin up 60 bps to 16.7%. Pratt & Whitney revenue is expected to decline slightly by 0.1% to $8.170 billion, while operating margin rises 60 bps to 8.6%. Raytheon revenue is forecast to increase 8.2% y/o/y to $7.512 billion, with operating margin expanding 29 bps to 11.9%.

Management raised full-year guidance in Q1 to sales of $92.5 to $93.5 billion, EPS of $6.70 to $6.90 and FCF of $8.250 billion to $8.750 billion. The drivers to watch are the pace of the geared-turbofan ramp at Pratt & Whitney, the durability of aftermarket growth as air traffic stays firm and the tariff impact on the Collins and Pratt supply chains.

▪  Intel closes Thursday after the market and remains the season's most contested turnaround. The company has guided Q2 revenue to a range of $13.8 to $14.8 billion, EPS of $0.20, marking a potential return to profitability after a loss a year earlier, and a gross margin near 39.0%. Consensus estimates anticipate EPS of $0.22 and Sales of $14.430 billion, implying growth of 12.2% y/o/y.

The Q1 print offered encouragement, with revenue of $13.577 billion, higher than the estimate of $12.418 billion, with Data Centre and AI up 22.4% to $5.052 billion and the Foundry segment up 16.2% to $5.421 billion, even as the company reported a sizeable GAAP loss. For Q2, the top line growth drivers are anticipated to be Data Centre and AI, under the Intel Products segment, and the Intel Foundry segment, both growing at a double-digit rate. Data Centre and AI Sales are expected to increase 37.4% y/o/y to $5.413 billion, while Intel Foundry’s are expected to increase 25.7% y/o/y to $5.550 billion. Q2 Operating margin is expected to reach 11.1% following Q1’s 12.3%.

The catalysts are numerous and highly binary. The 18A process and Panther Lake ramp moving to high volume in Arizona, the search for an anchor external customer for 14A, Nvidia’s $5 billion equity investment and Xeon integration agreement, SoftBank’s $2 billion stake and the restructuring led by CEO Lip-Bu Tan. After the stock’s strong year-to-date rally, there is little room for disappointment; a gross margin below 39% is the tripwire that would likely intensify investor concerns. Intel’s print carries outsized signal value for the broader semiconductor complex given the stock's dual role as both an AI-compute proxy and a geopolitical bet on domestic chip manufacturing capacity.

▪  SLB reports Friday before the open, providing the second and broader oilfield read on the Gulf. The Street has pencilled in EPS of $0.51, down 30.9% y/o/y, on revenue of $8.667 billion, up 1.4% y/o/y, against $8.721 billion in Q1. The segment story is one of North America and Production Systems strength offsetting a flat-to-soft International, as Middle East disruptions continue to weigh on the Well Construction and Reservoir Performance segments. Production Systems grew 19.4% to $3.508 billion in Q1, helped by the ChampionX acquisition.

Like Halliburton, SLB has guided to a Middle East headwind of roughly $0.06 to $0.08 per share this quarter. The company plans to return more than $4 billion to shareholders in 2026, including at least $2.4 billion through buybacks, while its new data-centre-power alliance with Liberty Energy gives it exposure to the same electrification theme driving GE Vernova.

Together with Halliburton’s earlier results, SLB’s print will help assess the duration of the Gulf disruption and whether strength in Latin America, Guyana, and North American short-cycle drilling can offset its impact on global oilfield services activity.

▪ Nucor rounds out the docket, with results due after the close on Monday, and the call the following morning. The company has already pre-announced Q2 EPS of $4.70 to $4.80, or $4.50 to $4.60 excluding a non-cash gain of about $0.20 on its Helion fusion investment. The improvement is driven primarily by higher steel selling prices in the mills segment alongside stable shipment volumes and roughly $130 million in raw-material refunds. Consensus anticipates $4.46, up 71.6% from the prior year of $2.60 and 35.2% sequentially q/o/q, and for revenue y/o/y growth of 20.0% to $10.147 billion. All three segments, Steel Mills, Steel Products and Raw Materials, are expected to improve sequentially and by double digit growth y/o/y, led by Steel Mills on higher average selling prices. For Q2, Steel Mills Sales are expected to increase 23.2% y/o/y to $6.399 billion, Steel Products to reach $3.063 billion, after a 15.2% y/o/y increase and Raw Materials to sales to increase 30.7% y/o/y to $720 million.

The Section 232 steel tariff at 50% is the structural support and the ramp of the West Virginia sheet mill is the key growth item for the call. Read alongside Steel Dynamics, Nucor confirms that domestic sheet-and-plate pricing and metal margins remain the clearest beneficiaries of the current trade regime.

Last week’s themes and the bigger picture

The Big Six reset the bar, and no good deed goes unpunished for GE Aerospace and Netflix

Bank of America opened the Bank season on 14 July with Net Interest Income of $15.997 billion, up 9.1%, and EPS of $1.21 against a $1.13 consensus. Net interest margin (NIM) expanded to 2.08% from 1.94% a year prior. Global Markets revenue increased 34.2% y/o/y to $7.435 billion for a seventeenth consecutive quarterly gain, with Equity Trading up 70.0% y/o/y to a record $3.619 billion. Global Wealth & Investment Management revenues increased 15.7% y/o/y to $6.871 billion, also a record. RoTE came in at 17.02% above consensus of 16.01% and Q1’s 15.95%. Management raised its full-year net-interest-income growth guidance toward the upper end of the 6.0% to 8.0% range and lifted its operating- leverage target, while buying back $6 billion of stock.

JPMorgan Chase reported 15 minutes later with the highest quarterly profit in its history. JP Morgan reported net income reached $21.155 billion, or EPS of $7.70 per share, flattered by a $4.6 billion gain on its Visa stake. This was comfortably ahead of the $5.59 EPS consensus, at a RoTE of 29.0%. Most segments posted extraordinary growth. The Commercial and Investment Bank produced $24.853 billion of revenue, up 24.9% y/o/y and Equity Trading Revenues surged 85.6% to $6.025 billion. FICC Trading revenues increased 6.4% y/o/y to $6.053 billion. Management raised full-year net-interest-income guidance to $105.5 billion, however consensus still anticipates NIM to contract by 3 bps from 2025 to 2.47% in 2026. The banks lifted the annual adjusted-expense guide to $107.5 billion and cut the card net-charge-off outlook to 3.2%, while signalling a dividend increase to $1.65 in Q3 from $1.50 in Q2. CEO Jamie Dimon's framing that the quarter reflected ‘a particularly favourable environment’ was, if anything, an understatement.

Wells Fargo reported its first quarter in seven years’ operating without the broader enforcement framework of its asset cap. Net Interest Income (NII) rose 5.2% to $12.317 billion, and NIM declined 4 bps from Q1’s 2.47% to 2.43%. EPS of $2.00 beat the $1.72 consensus, reflecting a 25.0% y/o/y growth rate. Average earning assets increased by 16.0% y/o/y to $2.044 trillion and the company raised its quarterly dividend 11.1% to $0.50 while repurchasing $3 billion of stock. RoTE increased to 17.7% from 14.5% in Q1, its highest level in more than five years. Management maintained its full-year net-interest-income guide at $48 billion and characterised the modest compression in NIM, to 2.43%, as a deliberate shift in mix rather than a sign of deterioration.

Goldman Sachs delivered the standout print of the Big Six 30 minutes later, with EPS of $20.98 against a consensus of $14.54, a beat of 44.3%, at a 25.3% RoTE. The beat was driven by three forces: an Investment Banking (IB) renaissance that lifted IB fees to their highest level since 2021, surging trading revenue as AI concerns, Middle East tensions and energy volatility boosted client activity across Equities and FICC desks and analyst forecasts that management characterised as wildly conservative going into the print. Global Banking and Markets set a record at $15.520 billion. Under this segment, the reopening of the issuance calendar, crystallised by the SpaceX listing, drove investment-banking fees 55.0% y/o/y higher to $3.395 billion. Equities rose 72.4% y/o/y to set a record of $7.416 billion. Assets under supervision reached a record $4.040 trillion, with a thirty-fourth consecutive quarter of long-term net inflows. The firm raised its dividend to $5.00. Shares rose 9.00% following the results.

Citigroup produced its best quarterly NII in a decade at $17.125 billion, up 12.9% y/o/y, with RoTE of 13.00% and EPS of $3.15 that beat every estimate on the Street. Services. which include Securities Services and Treasury and Trade Solutions, delivered its highest-ever revenue of $6.382 billion at a return of 40.5%, Markets, including Equity and Fixed Income, rose 17.0% to $7.007 billion and Banking climbed 34.0% as IB fees jumped 44.1% to $1.548 billion. The company launched a $30 billion buyback, repurchasing $4 billion in the quarter, and plans an 8.3% dividend increase to $0.65. CEO Jane Fraser pointed to Services as the engine of a more durable franchise. In keeping with the week's selectivity, the shares still fell after the earnings call on cautious outlook commentary and margin pressure in the US consumer cards business tied to a recent portfolio acquisition.

Morgan Stanley reported on 15 July and matched the theme with RoTE of 26.60%, ahead of the 22.36% estimate, but below the 27.10% registered in Q1. It reported an EPS of $3.46, with a surprise factor of 18.0% above the $2.93 estimate. Institutional Securities set a record at $11.040 billion after a 44.5% y/o/y increase, with Equity up 69.3% y/o/y and 22.4% q/o/q to $6.300 billion. The signature figure was in Wealth Management, where the segment produced a record $8.856 billion, reflecting an increase of 14.1% y/o/y. It drew record net new assets of $148.1 billion, just over half of it from stock-plan and late-stage private- company clients. Total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management crossed the $10 trillion milestone.

Beyond banking, GE Aerospace, reporting on 16 July, illustrated the market's new intolerance for anything short of perfect. The company beat and raised. Q2 revenue rose 24.5% to $12.634 billion, EPS of $2.02 topped the $1.86 consensus and FCF increased 43.8% to $3.027 billion, ahead of the $1.815 estimate. Management lifted full-year EPS guidance to a range of $7.65 to $7.85 from $7.10 to $7.40, with Operating profit now seen in the range of $10.550 to $10.750 billion for 2026, citing sustained aftermarket services demand and a backlog exceeding $210 billion. Commercial Engines & Services revenue rose 27.9% and total orders reached $16.500 billion for the quarter, with a first-half book-to-bill ratio of 1.55x in Defence & Propulsion Technologies, after this segment’s revenue increased 34.3% y/o/y to $3.443 billion, above the estimate $3.196 billion.

Despite outstanding top line growth, new orders value growth that had run at 87.0% in Q1 decelerated to 17.0%, and the operating margin compressed 129 bps to 21.7% from 23.0% a year earlier and 21.8% in Q1. At the segment level, operating margins contracted y/o/y in both Commercial Engines & Services and Defence and Propulsion Technologies, falling 63 bps and 33 bps, respectively, to 27.3% and 13.8%. GE Aerospace shares declined the following day, underscoring the week’s lesson: at this stage of the cycle the second derivative matters more than the beat.

Netflix told the same story on the consumer side on Thursday, after the market close. Revenue of $12.560 billion, up 13.4% y/o/y, a shade below the $12.580 billion consensus, an operating margin of 33.4%, ahead of Q2 guidance at 32.6%, and EPS of $0.80 that edged the Street’s estimate by 1 cent. However, Q3 revenue guide of $12.860 billion fell short of the $13.008 billion estimate, and the company's decision to move its engagement reporting to an annual cadence added to the unease. Q2 FCF came in significantly lower than estimates at $1.525 billion, below the estimate of $2.673 billion. Netflix shares fell as much as 12.2% intraday on Friday before recovering to a decline of 9.1%. With advertising still on track to reach $3 billion in 2026 and full-year revenue guidance narrowed to $51 billion to $51.4 billion from the prior $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion range, the quarter was fundamentally sound; the selloff reflected a 20.0x forward PE ratio meeting an outlook that was good, but not exceptional.

Steel Dynamics released Q2 results after the close on 20 July. Consistent with its 17 June pre-announcement, the company posted EPS of $3.69, up from $2.78 in Q1 and $2.01 a year ago, inclusive of a $16 million write-down tied to relocating a planned aluminium slab centre from Arizona to Columbus, Mississippi. Steel-operations profitability stepped up on wider metal margins as selling values outran scrap costs, the fabrication backlog ran forty percent above a year ago and extended into 2027 and the Columbus aluminium mill continued its ramp with two of three cold mills operational. Steel Operations Q2 EBITDA increased 22.3% y/o/y to $842 million, reflecting a margin expansion of 628 bps y/o/y and 237 bps q/o/q to 21.0%. The company repurchased $170 million of stock in Q2. Read alongside Nucor's pre- announcement, it confirms that the domestic metals complex is the beneficiary of the trade regime, the very read-through that makes this week's Nucor and Freeport prints worth watching.