Corporate Earnings Calendar 15 May - 21 May 2025
Thursday: Alibaba, Deere & Co., Walmart, Applied Materials, Take Two Interactive
Tuesday: Home Depot, Palo Alto Networks
Wednesday: Baidu, Medtronic, Snowflake, Zoom Video Communications, XPeng
Global market indices
US Stock Indices Price Performance
Nasdaq 100 +8.93% MTD and +1.46% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.62% MTD and -0.95% YTD
NYSE +2.69% MTD and +2.78% YTD
S&P 500 +5.81% MTD and +0.19% YTD
The S&P 500 is +4.64% over the past week, with 8 of the 11 sectors up MTD. The Equally Weighted version of the S&P 500 is +3.20% over this past week and +0.75% YTD.
The S&P 500 Information Technology is the leading sector so far this month, +12.02% MTD and -0.76% YTD, while Health Care is the weakest sector at -8.36% MTD and -6.51% YTD.
Over this past week, Consumer Discretionary outperformed within the S&P 500 at +9.70%, followed by Information Technology and Communication Services at +8.96% and +6.28%, respectively. Conversely, Health Care underperformed at -4.85%, followed by Consumer Staples and Real Estate at -2.63% and -2.05%, respectively.
The S&P 500 saw only a modest increase on Wednesday, as optimism for potential trade agreements and the resilience of the US economy began to waver. Throughout much of the trading day, major indexes lacked a clear direction, with some economically sensitive stocks pulling back after experiencing gains earlier in the week.
At the close, the S&P 500 was +0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite was +0.7%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by -0.2%, or approximately 89 points.
The S&P 500 index had turned positive for the year on Tuesday for the first time since February. It has now recovered approximately 18% from its lowest closing level this year, which occurred in early April following ‘Liberation Day’.
Looking ahead, we may see reduced volatility following April's significant market fluctuations as global trade discussions continue. According to Piper Sandler, options traders are currently betting on a move smaller than 0.9%, either upward or downward, in the S&P 500 for each trading session through 5th June.
The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 was -0.62% on Wednesday, underperforming its cap-weighted counterpart by 0.73 percentage points.
In corporate news, Saudi Aramco finalised agreements with prominent US firms, with the potential value reaching approximately $90 billion. Through its Aramco Group, the company entered into 34 memorandums of understanding (MoUs) and formal agreements encompassing collaborations and partnerships across diverse sectors, including liquefied natural gas, fuels, chemicals, emission-reduction technologies, and artificial intelligence, among others.
Aramco disclosed the signing of MoUs with ExxonMobil to assess a potential upgrade to the SAMREF refinery, with Amazon focusing on digital transformation and lower-carbon initiatives, and with Nvidia concerning AI infrastructure.
Coinbase Global’s CEO, Brian Armstrong, stated that the largest US cryptocurrency exchange is considering further M&A activity, following its $2.9 billion agreement earlier this month to acquire the derivatives exchange Deribit.
Nucor implemented a shutdown of production at select facilities after detecting an unauthorised intrusion into its computer systems.
Mega caps: The Magnificent Seven had a decisively positive performance this week in response to the US-China tariff delay and on expectations of a US-Saudi deal on AI and other technologies with Tesla +25.87%, Nvidia +15.62%, Amazon +11.41%, Meta Platforms +10.48%, Alphabet +9.24%, Apple +8.19% and Microsoft +4.52%.
Energy stocks had a strong performance this week, with the Energy sector itself +5.61%. WTI and Brent prices are +8.36% and +7.89%, respectively, this week. Over this past week Phillips 66 +18.14%, Apa +17.38%, Marathon Petroleum +13.01%, Occidental Petroleum +12.33%, Halliburton +9.66%, BP +8.59%, ConocoPhillips +5.54%, Hess +4.42%, Chevron +4.33%, Baker Hughes +4.21%, ExxonMobil +3.70%, and Shell +3.52%, while Energy Fuels -3.33%.
Materials and Mining stocks had a mostly positive performance this week, with the Materials sector +1.85%. Over the past seven days, Albemarle +8.95%, Mosaic +6.72%, CF Industries +6.54%, Freeport-McMoRan +5.51%, Nucor +1.69% and Yara International +1.60%, while Sibanye Stillwater -9.65%, and Newmont Corporation -9.87%.
European Stock Indices Price Performance
Stoxx 600 +3.11% MTD and +7.14% YTD
DAX +4.58% MTD and +18.17% YTD
CAC 40 +3.20% MTD and +6.18% YTD
IBEX 35 +4.16% MTD and +19.36% YTD
FTSE MIB +6.58% MTD and +17.23% YTD
FTSE 100 +1.27% MTD and +5.26% YTD
This week, the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index is +1.95%. It was -0.24% on Wednesday, closing at 543.88.
So far this month in the STOXX Europe 600, Travel & Leisure is the leading sector, +11.30% MTD and -4.19% YTD, while Health Care is the weakest at -3.75% MTD and -6.98% YTD.
This week, Technology outperformed within the STOXX Europe 600, at +6.81%, followed by Basic Resources and Travel & Leisure at +6.65% and +6.19%, respectively. Conversely, Utilities underperformed at -3.28%, followed by Health Care and Telecommunications, at -2.51% and -2.23%, respectively.
Germany's DAX index was -0.47% on Wednesday, closing at 23,527.01. It was +1.78% for the week. France's CAC 40 index was -0.47% on Wednesday, closing at 7,836.79. It was +2.75% over the past week.
The UK's FTSE 100 index was +0.51% over the past week to 8,602.92. It was -0.02% on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, within the European STOXX 600 index, Construction & Materials emerged as the top-performing sector. Ferrovial, Keller Group, and Bouygues all affirmed their positive full-year guidance. Additionally, FLSmidth & Co increased its 2025 outlook following strong Q1 results. The Telecoms sector also experienced an upswing, with Telefonica and Hellenic Telecommunications Organization reporting stable Q1 earnings.
The Health Care sector also performed well, with H. Lundbeck in the spotlight after raising its full-year guidance. Furthermore, GSK announced its acquisition of efimosfermin from Boston Pharmaceuticals for a potential total of $2 billion, which includes an upfront payment of $1.2 billion.
Conversely, the Personal & Household Goods sector declined despite Burberry Group reporting stronger Q1 earnings, with comparable retail sales increasing by 6%. The company's revenue reached £2.46 billion, in line with consensus.
The Travel & Leisure sector underperformed, with TUI missing earnings expectations due to a 1% y/o/y decline in summer bookings reported in its second-quarter results, although it maintained its 2025 guidance. Also within this sector, International Consolidated Airlines Group's Iberia reached a preliminary agreement with the Cabin Crew Members' unions, which includes salary increases and profit-sharing.
The Chemicals sector also experienced a downturn, primarily influenced by downbeat Q1 earnings from Brenntag.
Other Global Stock Indices Price Performance
MSCI World Index +4.79% MTD and +3.31% YTD
Hang Seng +6.34% MTD and +17.26% YTD
This week, the Hang Seng Index was +3.62%, which may be largely attributable to the deal struck earlier this week between the US and China on delaying full tariffs by 90 days. The MSCI World Index was +3.31%.
Currencies
EUR -1.32% MTD and +5.99% YTD to $1.1177.
GBP -0.48% MTD and +7.96% YTD to $1.3304.
On Wednesday the dollar index increased +0.04% to 101.02. The Dollar Index is +1.14% so far this week, as well as +1.39% MTD and -6.89% YTD.
The US dollar experienced a slight increase on Wednesday, recovering from earlier losses as investors awaited further indications that global trade tensions would continue to subside.
The dollar index commenced the week with an upswing exceeding one percentage point on Monday, reaching a one-month high. This appreciation was driven by an agreement between the US and China to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs, thereby alleviating concerns that a trade conflict between the world's two largest economies could trigger a global recession.
However, the dollar subsequently weakened on Tuesday following the release of CPI data that fell below economists' expectations, as decreasing food costs partially counteracted rising rental expenses.
On Wednesday the euro declined by -0.07% to $1.1177, marking a -1.16% decrease for the week. Sterling also depreciated by -0.33% to $1.3260 on Wednesday, registering a -0.26% decline for the week. The euro was up +0.35% to 84.33 pence, after seven consecutive days of declines.
Market expectations indicate approximately 50 bps of monetary easing by year-end by the BoE. The central bank is anticipated to maintain its current policy at the June meeting, with a 25 bps rate cut expected in August.
On Wednesday traders also processed news regarding a meeting on 5th May between South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister Choi Ji-young and Robert Kaproth of the US Treasury to discuss foreign exchange markets. This development contributed to the dollar reaching its lowest point in a week against the Korean won.
Nevertheless, movements in Asian currencies moderated somewhat after a Bloomberg news report, citing an individual familiar with the matter, indicated that the US is not pursuing a weaker dollar as part of tariff negotiations.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened by -0.52% to ¥146.65, having fallen by as much as 1.20% during Wednesday’s session. For the week, however, the dollar strengthened by +2.02% against the yen.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 14 May 2025
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin +9.73% MTD and +10.93% YTD to $103,653.76.
Ethereum +45.36% MTD and -21.82% YTD to $2,606.83.
Bitcoin is +7.13% and Ethereum +44.91% over the past 7 days. On Wednesday Bitcoin was -0.66% and Ethereum -3.12%.
Bitcoin remains above the $100K mark as investors are increasingly accepting it as part of a diversified portfolio. In addition, according to Miles Deutscher on X, Bitcoin supply on exchanges has dropped to a 7-year low of just 14%. This significant decrease in available supply on trading platforms suggests rising holding sentiment and reduced selling pressure among investors.
Although Ethereum’s growth has paled in comparison to Bitcoin YTD, it has surged over 45% month-to-date in May, vastly outperforming the broader crypto market. This, according to Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia, analysts at research firm Bernstein, writing in a note issued on Wednesday, is due to the growing embrace of digital assets' usefulness as more than stores of value and increased institutional and retail interest adoption of blockchain and stablecoin payments. Part of this surge, at least over the past week, may also be attributable to the Pectra upgrade, which is improving the blockchain’s speed and efficiency. As Ethereum has so dramatically risen over the past month, the Ethereum Foundation has launched a “Trillion Dollar Security” initiative to future-proof the network for global-scale financial demand.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 14 May 2025
Fixed Income
US 10-year yield +37.4 bps MTD and -3.8 bps YTD to 4.538%.
German 10-year yield bps +25.3 bps MTD and +33.1 bps YTD to 2.700%.
UK 10-year yield +25.2 bps MTD and +27.0 bps YTD to 4.716%.
US Treasury prices declined on Wednesday, causing yields to rise to multi-week highs as investors became increasingly concerned about escalating disagreements within Congress regarding the White House's proposed tax cuts and budget legislation.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached a six-week high, surpassing the support level of 4.50%, and was +6.5 bps to 4.538%. On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield was +4.2 bps to 4.057% after hitting its highest level since late March earlier in the day. Similarly, on the long end of the curve, the 30-year yield was +6.7 bps to 4.975%.
Despite an overnight debate, Republicans in the US House of Representatives advanced parts of President Donald Trump's comprehensive budget package on Wednesday. The House Ways and Means Committee approved the initial version of the tax cut bill. However, the ultimate impact on future budget deficits remains uncertain, pending discussions on spending and potential significant reductions to the Medicaid health programme.
The rise in Treasury yields could also reflect a lessening of recession fears following the US and China's agreement on Monday to a 90-day pause in imposing higher tariffs. This is expected to reinforce expectations that the Fed will proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts in the current easing cycle.
For the week, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was +26.4 bps to 4.538%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was +19.7 bps to 4.975%. On the shorter end of the yield curve, the two-year Treasury yield, which is typically more sensitive to near-term interest rate expectations, rose by +26.8 bps.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 8.3% probability of a June cut, down from 21.6% the previous week, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A rate cut at September’s Fed meeting now is seen as the next most likely, with a 68.4% probability. Traders are currently pricing in 48.9 bps of cuts by the end of the year, lower than last week’s 78.0 bps.
In the UK, 10-year gilts rose on Wednesday, +4.0 bps to 4.716%. The UK 10-year yield is +25.2 bps over the past 7 days. The yield on 30-year gilts this week, +22.2 bps to 5.253%.
Eurozone bond yields held steady on Wednesday, stabilising after an earlier climb to multi-week highs as trade tensions appeared to ease.
Euro area yields increased substantially on Monday, influenced by discussions between the US and China, as well as remarks from ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel hinting at a potential pause to the ECB’s easing path.
On the inflation front, German inflation continued its downward trend, with the final reading coming in at 2.2% in April, confirming initial figures.
On Wednesday, Germany's benchmark 10-year yield was +1.8 bps to 2.700%, its highest point since 10th April. Germany's 2-year yields, which typically show greater sensitivity to ECB policy shifts, edged down -1.1 bps to 1.926%. On the longer end of the curve, the 30-year yield was +2.5 bps, reaching 3.143%.
Similarly, Italy's 10-year yield experienced a slight increase of +1.7 bps to 3.710%, after briefly touching 3.713%, its highest level since 14th April.
The German 10-year yield was +22.5 bps this week. Germany's two-year bond yield is +23.8 bps this week. On the longer end of the curve, Germany's 30-year yield is +26.2 bps this week.
The spread between US 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds is now 183.8 bps, 3.9 bps higher than last week’s 179.9 bps.
The spread of Italy's 10-year yield compared to Germany's Bund yield stands at 101.0 bps, 6.6 bps lower from last week’s 107.6 bps spread. Italian bond yields, a benchmark for the eurozone periphery, are +14.5 bps this week to 3.710%.
The spread between French and German 10-year bond yields is 67.9 bps this week, 4.0 bps lower than last week at 71.9 bps.
Money market expectations currently reflect the ECB's deposit facility rate at 1.79% by the end of the year, with a near certainty (almost 95%) of a rate reduction in June and a 10% probability of a subsequent curt in July.
Commodities
Gold spot -3.32% MTD and +21.00% YTD to $3,178.50 per ounce.
Silver spot -1.16% MTD and +10.65% YTD to $32.21 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude +7.92% MTD and -12.08% YTD to $62.83 a barrel.
Brent crude +4.26% MTD and -11.78% YTD to $65.81 a barrel.
Gold prices have fallen -5.49% this week.
Gold prices fell more than two percentage points on Wednesday, reaching their lowest level in more than a month as increased optimism surrounding trade fostered a greater appetite for risk among investors, prompting a move away from the safe-haven asset.
On Wednesday, spot gold fell to its lowest point since 11th April, -2.24% to $3,178.50 per ounce, having touched an intraday low of $3,174.62. Despite this recent decline, gold is +21.3% year-to-date.
This week, WTI and Brent are +8.36% and +7.89%, respectively.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday following the release of government data revealing an increase in US crude oil stockpiles for the past week. This sparked investor concerns regarding potential oversupply.
Brent crude futures settled at $65.81 a barrel, a decrease of 78 cents, or approximately -1.17%. WTI crude also slipped by 80 cents, or -1.26%, to $62.83.
Both benchmarks had traded near two-week highs in the previous session, buoyed by a temporary reduction in US - China tariffs. However, OPEC on Wednesday revised down its growth forecast for oil supply from the US and other non-OPEC+ producers for the current year. OPEC also anticipated lower capital spending in response to the recent decline in oil prices.
In its monthly report, OPEC projected that supply from countries outside OPEC+ would increase by roughly 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decrease from the previous month's forecast of 900,000 bpd. Oil prices have faced downward pressure due to OPEC+'s decisions to accelerate output increases in May and June.
The OPEC report also indicated an expected y/o/y decline of about 5% in exploration and production investment outside OPEC+ in 2025. In contrast, investment in 2024 saw a y/o/y increase of approximately $3 billion, reaching $299 billion, according to OPEC. While the US is still projected to be the primary driver of supply growth, OPEC now anticipates total oil output to rise by about 300,000 bpd this year, down from last month's forecast of 400,000 bpd.
OPEC maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, following reductions in the previous month that cited the impact of Q1 demand data and trade tariffs.
The report also revealed that crude production by the broader OPEC+ alliance fell in April by 106,000 bpd to 40.92 million bpd, partly due to a reduction in Kazakhstan, which is facing pressure to improve its compliance with OPEC+ quotas. Kazakhstan's 41,000 bpd drop, the largest within OPEC+, came as the country continued to significantly exceed its OPEC+ target. Other nations, including Iran, Libya, and Nigeria, also reduced their output, the report showed.
EIA weekly report. According to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, US crude oil inventories were up last week due to heightened import volumes, while stockpiles of gasoline and distillate fuels declined in anticipation of the forthcoming summer driving season.
For the week ending 9th May, crude oil inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels, reaching a total of 441.8 million barrels. Net crude oil imports into the US also saw an increase last week, averaging 422,000 bpd.
In contrast, inventories of both gasoline and distillate fuels registered decreases ahead of the start of summer driving season, typically marked by the Memorial Day weekend towards the end of May. US gasoline stocks fell by 1.0 million barrels to 224.7 million barrels during the reported week. Distillate stockpiles, which encompass diesel and heating oil, experienced a more substantial decline of 3.2 million barrels, falling to 103.6 million barrels – the lowest level recorded since April 2005.
The EIA further noted that crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub decreased by 1.1 million barrels last week. Additionally, refinery crude runs increased by 330,000 bpd, resulting in a 1.2 percentage point rise in refinery utilisation rates over the week.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 14 May 2025
Key data to move markets
EUROPE
Thursday: French CPI, Eurozone’s GDP, Employment Change and Industrial Production, and speeches by ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, and Executive Board Members Frank Elderson and Piero Cipollone.
Friday: Italian CPI, and speeches by ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau, and Executive Board Members Philip Lane and Piero Cipollone.
Monday: Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices and Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, and German Bundesbank Monthly Report.
Tuesday: German Producer Price Index.
UK
Thursday: GDP, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and a speech by BoE External Member Swati Dhingra.
Tuesday: A speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill.
Wednesday: CPI, Core CPI, PPI, PPI Core Output, and Retail Price Index.
US
Thursday: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, NY Empire State Manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.
Friday: Housing Starts, Building Permits, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations Indexes, UoM 1-year and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations, and a speech by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
Monday: A speech by New York Fed President John Williams.
Tuesday: Speeches by St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
CHINA
Sunday: Industrial Production and Retail Sales.
Monday: PBoC Interest Rate Decision.
JAPAN
Thursday: GDP.
Tuesday: Imports, Exports, and Trade Balance.
Global Macro Updates
Will the US face a ‘Liz Truss moment’ due to rising debt levels and servicing costs? House Republicans are advancing their strategy to increase the nation's debt ceiling by $4 trillion, a measure integrated into a broader initiative aimed at enacting President Trump's tax agenda. This proposal, detailed in legislative text released by the House Ways and Means Committee on Monday, aligns with the House's directives outlined in a blueprint adopted by congressional Republicans the previous month.
Treasury Department Secretary Scott Bessent has already urged Congress to either raise or suspend the debt ceiling by July. In a letter addressed to Speaker Mike Johnson last Friday, Secretary Bessent stated that there is a "reasonable probability" that the government's "cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August, during a scheduled congressional recess."
A key divergence exists between the approaches of the two GOP-led chambers regarding the debt limit, as outlined in the budget framework instructions adopted by Republicans last month. While the House's plans specify a $4 trillion increase to the debt ceiling, the Senate's instructions detail a larger $5 trillion increase.
Given market concerns around already high deficit levels, will a ‘Liz Truss moment’, when the bond markets blow up and the president and/or congress is forced to change course, be necessary? Will the ‘bond vigilantes’, by sending yields close to or breaching 5.00%, force everyone to do the right thing?
While President Trump frequently discusses curbing spending to reduce the deficit, the limited spending cuts implemented thus far are significantly outweighed by the projected revenue loss from the administration's proposed tax cuts, currently under negotiation with Congress.
The US already faces substantial deficits, exceeding 6% of gross domestic product for the past two years, a level typically seen only during economic recessions or global conflicts. The deficit reached 6.4% in fiscal year 2024, following 6.2% in 2023.
Long-term US Treasury yields are already trending upward, with 10-year rates surpassing 4.50% again, as the proposed tax cuts amplify investor concerns regarding the escalating US debt burden. The Committee for a Responsible Budget estimated on Wednesday that the House bill would increase the national debt by at least $3.3 trillion and elevate the annual deficit to over 7% of GDP by 2034.
In the previous year, federal debt servicing costs, at 3.1% of GDP, surpassed defence spending for the first time in recorded history. This figure represents a doubling of the average debt servicing costs observed during the post-Global Financial Crisis period. The Congressional Budget Office projects a continued worsening of this trend, forecasting that debt servicing costs will reach 4.1% of GDP by 2035, even exceeding the rising expenditures of Medicare.
Furthermore, from the perspective of the credit market, the risk of recession is not significantly reflected in current pricing. High yield spreads, which stood around 300 bps just prior to Liberation Day, temporarily widened to approximately 450 bps before stabilising in the 350 – 400 bps range by the end of April. Typical conditions preceding a recession would typically push these spreads to the 600 – 650 bps level. This leaves the credit market susceptible should the confidence shock — already evident in "soft" survey data — eventually translate into tangible economic weakness.
Finally, the concurrent declines observed in stocks, bonds, and the dollar—assets that historically do not move in unison during periods of market stress—emphasise the necessity of re-evaluating hedging strategies. Shortening duration can enable investors to access the segment of the yield curve where hedging has remained most effective. Furthermore, exploring alternative sources of diversification beyond traditional bonds may contribute to enhanced portfolio resilience.
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