Where is the UK heading?

Corporate Earnings Calendar

6^th November - 12^th November 2025

Thursday: Airbnb, Akamai Technologies, Alliant Energy, Block, Camden Property Trust, ConocoPhillips, Consolidated Edison, DuPont de Nemours, EOG Resources, EPAM Systems, Expedia, Fastenal, Microchip Technology, Moderna, Monster Beverage, NRG Energy, Ralph Lauren, Rockwell Automation, Take-Two Interactive Software, The Trade Desk, Viatris, Vistra, Warner Bros. Discovery, Wynn Resorts

Friday: Anglogold Ashanti, Constellation Energy, Duke Energy, Franklin Resources, KKR & Co

Monday: Barrick Mining, Paramount Skydance, Tyson Foods

Tuesday: Occidental Petroleum, Oklo

Wednesday: ABN AMRO, Bayer, Cisco Systems, Copart, TransDigm Group

Global market indices

US Stock Indices Price Performance

Nasdaq 100 -0.92% MTD and +21.93% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.00% MTD and +10.67% YTD
NYSE -0.46% MTD and +11.86% YTD
S&P 500 -0.64% MTD and +15.55% YTD

The S&P 500 is -1.37% over the past seven days, with 4 of the 11 sectors up MTD. The Equally Weighted version of the S&P 500 is -0.33% over this past week and +6.86% YTD.

The S&P 500 Health Care sector is the leading sector so far this month, +0.97% MTD and +5.71% YTD, while Information Technology is the weakest sector at -1.96% MTD and +26.76% YTD.

Over this past week, Consumer Discretionary outperformed within the S&P 500 at +2.37%, followed by Health Care and Financials at +1.11% and +0.89%, respectively. Conversely, Information Technology underperformed at -3.66%, followed by Communication Services and Materials at -2.69% and -2.31%, respectively.

The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 was +0.59% on Wednesday, outperforming its cap-weighted counterpart by 0.22 percentage points.

Market sentiment stabilised on Wednesday after a downturn on Tuesday that negatively impacted big tech. Over 300 stocks within the S&P 500 advanced +0.37%, with the index closing just below 6,800, at 6,796.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +0.48% and the Nasdaq Composite rose +0.65%.

In corporate news, Arm Holdings — which supplies the predominant technology for computing processors — issued an optimistic revenue outlook, supported by growing demand for chip designs tailored to artificial intelligence data centres. 

In a statement released Wednesday, Snap announced a $400 million agreement with Perplexity AI to globally integrate the company’s AI search engine within the Snapchat platform.

Lyft projected Q4 earnings that did not meet Wall Street’s expectations, suggesting that its global expansion efforts and focus on customer retention may constrain profitability. 

Following stronger-than-anticipated order volumes in Q3, DoorDash, the leading US food delivery provider, disclosed that it intends to allocate several hundred million dollars next year to support new initiatives and enhance internal tools.

Apple is reportedly preparing to invest approximately $1 billion annually in an advanced 1.2 trillion parameter AI model developed by Google, aimed at powering a comprehensive update to the Siri voice assistant, according to individuals familiar with the matter.

Alphabet’s Google and cybersecurity company Wiz cleared a significant regulatory milestone for their $32 billion transaction as the US government indicated it would conclude its review of the deal.

McDonald’s reported stronger-than-expected US sales growth in Q3, attributing the performance to consumers’ preference for affordable fast food over higher-priced offerings at fast-casual chains.

Bank of America, seeking to improve the performance of its stock relative to major US competitors, outlined a series of new financial objectives, including a forecast for annual earnings per share growth of at least 12% over the coming years.

Mega caps: The Magnificent Seven had a mixed performance over the past week. Over the last seven days, Amazon +8.64%, Alphabet +3.55%, Apple +0.16%, and Tesla +0.12%, while Nvidia -5.71%, Microsoft -6.35%, and Meta Platforms -15.41%.

Energy stocks had a negative performance this week, with the Energy sector itself -0.98%. WTI and Brent prices are -1.19% and -1.94%, respectively, over the past week. Over the last seven days, BP +4.47%, while Shell -0.42%, ConocoPhillips -0.43%, Halliburton -1.38%, Phillips 66 -1.50%, Chevron -1.57%, Occidental Petroleum -2.05%, ExxonMobil -2.38%, Baker Hughes -2.65%, APA -3.90%, Marathon Petroleum -4.89%, and Energy Fuels -19.82%.

Materials and Mining stocks had a mostly negative performance this week, with the Materials sector -2.31%. Over the past seven days, Newmont Corporation +2.46%, CF Industries +1.07%, and Yara International +0.46%, while Freeport-McMoRan -4.69%, Nucor -5.94%, Albemarle -5.97%, Sibanye Stillwater -7.07%, Celanese Corporation -7.93%, and Mosaic -8.48%.

Albemarle Q3 earnings. Albemarle reported net sales of $1.31 billion for the quarter, reflecting volume growth of 8% in both the Energy Storage and Ketjen segments, and exceeding FactSet’s consensus estimate of $1.28 billion. 

The company posted a net loss of $161 million, or $1.72 per diluted share attributable to common shareholders. Excluding a non-cash goodwill impairment charge related to Ketjen, the adjusted loss was $0.19 per diluted share, which compares favourably to FactSet’s anticipated loss of $0.86 per share for the quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $226 million, surpassing FactSet’s projection of $192 million and representing a 7% increase. This was driven by enhanced fixed cost absorption and ongoing cost-saving initiatives.

In Q3, cash from operations increased by 57% to $356 million, representing a rise of $128 million. Year-to-date cash from operations reached $894 million, up 29% or $202 million, primarily attributable to cost and productivity enhancements, effective cash management measures, and a customer prepayment received in January. See report.

CF Industries Q3 earnings. CF Industries reported Q3 EPS of $2.19, slightly exceeding the FactSet consensus estimate of $2.16. Revenue for the period was $1.66 billion, just below FactSet’s projection of $1.67 billion. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $667 million, compared to the FactSet estimate of $698.2 million. During Q3, the company repurchased 4.3 million shares for a total of $364 million.

Gross ammonia production reached approximately 2.4 million tons for the quarter and 7.6 million tons for the first nine months of 2025, compared to 2.4 million tons and 7.2 million tons, respectively, in the same periods of 2024. CF Industries anticipates full-year 2025 gross ammonia production to be around 10 million tons.

Average selling prices in Q3 2025 were higher than in Q3 2024, driven by robust global nitrogen demand, supply disruptions stemming from geopolitical factors, and higher global energy costs, which elevated the market clearing price required to meet demand. However, sales volumes declined y/o/y, primarily due to lower beginning inventory levels.

Global nitrogen pricing remained supported at the beginning of the third quarter of 2025, reflecting strong demand from North America, India, and Brazil, and constrained supply due to plant outages during the quarter and earlier in the year. While global urea pricing moderated as is typical for this period, global ammonia pricing strengthened, bolstered by scheduled and unscheduled production outages and steady demand. See report.

European Stock Indices Price Performance

Stoxx 600 +0.00% MTD and +12.66% YTD
DAX +0.38% MTD and +20.80% YTD
CAC 40 -0.58% MTD and +9.40% YTD
IBEX 35 +0.41% MTD and +38.84% YTD
FTSE MIB +0.20% MTD and +26.55% YTD
FTSE 100 +0.65% MTD and +19.63% YTD

This week, the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index is -0.61%. It was +0.23% Wednesday, closing at 571.90.

So far this month in the STOXX Europe 600, the Autos & Parts is the leading sector, +2.64% MTD and -6.53% YTD, while Basic Resources is the weakest at -2.79% MTD and +11.12% YTD.

This week, Autos & Parts outperformed within the STOXX Europe 600, at +1.14%, followed by Travel & Leisure and Utilities at +1.02% and +0.99%, respectively. Conversely, Telecom underperformed at -4.32%, followed by Basic Resources and Retail at -3.88% and -2.90%, respectively.

Germany's DAX index was +0.42% Wednesday, closing at 24,049.74. It was -0.31% over the past seven days. France's CAC 40 index was +0.08% on Wednesday, closing at 8,074.23. It was -1.54% over the past week.

The UK's FTSE 100 index was +0.21% over the past seven days to 9,777.08. It was +0.64% on Wednesday following UK Chancellor Rachel Reeve’s pre-budget warning speech on Tuesday.

As of 4^th November, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data for the STOXX 600, Q3 2025 earnings are expected to increase 4.3% from Q3 2024. Excluding the Energy sector, earnings are expected to increase 4.4%. Q3 2025 revenue is expected to decrease 0.9% from Q3 2024. Excluding the Energy sector, revenues are expected to increase 0.1%. Thus far, 170 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported earnings for Q3 2025. Of these 170 companies, 55.3% reported results exceeding analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 54% beat analyst EPS estimates. To date, 207 STOXX 600 companies have reported revenue to date for Q3 2025. Of these, 47.3% reported revenue exceeding analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 58% beat analyst revenue estimates.

The STOXX 600 expects to see shareweighted earnings of €128.4 billion in Q3 2025 compared to share-weighted earnings of €123.1 billion (based on the year-ago earnings of the current constituents) in Q3 2024. Companies are collectively reporting earnings that are 8.0% above estimates. This figure is higher than the long-term average surprise factor of 5.8% observed since 2012.

Five of the ten sectors in the index expect improved earnings compared to Q3 2024. At 10.3%, Financials is the sector that has the highest earnings growth rate for the quarter, while Consumer Cyclicals has the highest anticipated contraction of 10.9% compared to Q3 2024. Energy has recorded the highest surprise factor at 13%. Conversely, Consumer Cyclicals has reported earnings that in aggregate are 16% lower than estimates.

The forward four-quarter price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the STOXX 600 sits at 14.8x. This is above the 10-year average of 14.2x.

During the week of 10^th November, 43 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.

Analysts anticipate positive Q3 earnings growth in twelve of the sixteen countries comprising the STOXX 600 index. Poland, with an estimated growth rate of 65.0%, and Ireland, at 28.3%, are projected to have the highest earnings growth, whereas Denmark and Norway are expected to experience the most significant declines, estimated at 20.8% and 14.9%, respectively.

In Wednesday's trading session, Chemicals emerged as one of the best-performing sectors. Oerlikon shares traded higher following an upgrade from RBC to ‘outperform,’ while Geberit advanced after JPMorgan raised its rating, highlighting the company's margin resilience and limited risk of a de-rating. The Autos & Parts sector also outperformed, amid a solid Q3 report from BMW, which delivered results in line with expectations and maintained its full-year outlook. Additionally, data revealed that UK new car registrations in October increased by 0.5%, with higher forecasts for 2025 and 2026.

The Construction & Materials sector was higher with Barratt Redrow's shares advancing after it maintained its guidance, Vonovia raised its full-year EBITDA guidance, and Segro was upgraded by Berenberg, citing stronger pre-let momentum. Within the Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector, Glanbia reported EPS at the upper end of its anticipated range. Barry Callebaut delivered robust full-year results, while Associated British Foods benefited from a rating upgrade issued by Kepler.

Energy stocks traded higher, with renewables in focus. Vestas Wind Systems delivered a Q3 net income of €304 million, beating expectations, though it narrowed its full-year revenue guidance to €18.5 – 19.5 billion. Ørsted confirmed its full-year profit guidance despite weak Q3 earnings.

Technology lagged behind all other sectors amid growing concerns regarding AI valuations, which extended from the US and Asia. European semiconductor firms experienced the most significant declines. Sinch shares fell after reporting lower-than-expected Q3 revenue. Health Care also underperformed after the latest tariff headlines, with Siemens Healthineers impacted by US tariffs and a ‘cautious’ outlook for fiscal year 2026. Novo Nordisk declined after it cut guidance for the fourth time due to softer sales of Wegovy and Ozempic. The Industrial Goods sector also traded lower, as Weir Group flagged foreign exchange headwinds and Qiagen shares declined on news of a CEO transition.

Other Global Stock Indices Price Performance

MSCI World Index -0.77% MTD and +17.50% YTD
Hang Seng +1.65% MTD and +31.29% YTD

The MSCI World Index is -1.00% over the past 7 days, while the Hang Seng Index is -0.03% over the past 7 days.

Currencies

EUR -0.33% MTD and +11.01% YTD to $1.1491
GBP -0.77% MTD and +4.29% YTD to $1.3050

The US dollar remained close to a five-month peak on Wednesday, supported by economic data that alleviated concerns regarding the state of the US economy and labour market. 

The dollar index edged down -0.03% to 100.17 for the session, but has advanced +1.05% since the previous Wednesday, when the Fed reduced interest rates yet tempered expectations for additional easing within the year. This places the index at its highest level since late May. The dollar index is +0.45% MTD.

The British pound stabilised following its recent decline, appreciating +0.25% against the dollar to $1.3050. Over the week, sterling declined -1.05%. Despite this modest rebound, sterling remains near multi-month lows versus the dollar and multi-year lows against the euro. 

The euro strengthened by +0.09% against the dollar on Wednesday to $1.1491, but has declined -0.97% over the last seven days.

The US dollar was +0.29% against the Japanese yen to ¥154.11 on Wednesday. Over the past seven days, the yen has declined by -0.92%, contributing to a -0.07% drop this month. Year-to-date, the US dollar is -1.76% lower against the Japanese yen.

Note: As of 5:00 pm EST 5 November 2025

Fixed Income

US 10-year yield +8.1 bps MTD and -41.6 bps YTD to 4.160%
German 10-year yield +4.3 bps MTD and +30.8 bps YTD to 2.677%
UK 10-year yield +5.7 bps MTD and -10.3 bps YTD to 4.465%

US Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday, following the release of data underscoring the continued resilience of the US economy and a Treasury refunding announcement that signalled potential future increases in long-term debt issuance. 

The rise in yields accelerated during the session as the US Supreme Court commenced hearings on the legality of the President’s sweeping tariffs. The possibility of reduced tariff revenues — essentially taxes on imported goods — raised concerns about wider government budget deficits, potentially resulting in an increased supply of Treasury securities in the market.

In afternoon trading, the 10-year Treasury yield advanced by +7.1 bps to 4.160%, while the two-year yield gained +5.2 bps, reaching 3.638%. At the longer end, the 30-year yield rose +6.6 bps to 4.734%.

In its Wednesday statement, the Treasury Department indicated that it would maintain the sizes of its nominal coupon and floating rate note auctions at current levels for at least the next several quarters, though it is beginning to evaluate future increases. This exerted additional upward pressure on long-term yields, resulting in a steeper yield curve. 

The spread between the two- and 10-year yields widened to 52.2 bps — the steepest level in more than two weeks — marking a 5.0 bps increase compared to the prior week.

Over the past seven days, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was +8.4 bps. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was +4.3 bps. On the shorter end, the two-year Treasury yield was -1.8 bps.

Traders are pricing in 15.7 bps of cuts by year-end, slightly lower than last week’s 15.9 bps, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 62.7% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at December’s FOMC meeting, down from 66.6% last week.

Across the Atlantic, in the UK, on Wednesday the 10-year gilt was +3.6 bps to 4.465%. The UK 10-year yield was +7.1 bps over the past seven days. The 30-year gilt was +4.4 bps to 5.251% on Wednesday and is +8.8 bps over the past seven days. In a 5-4 vote, the Bank of England (BoE) kept rates unchanged at 4% at its meeting today. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey provided the swing vote. In its statement the Bank said “CPI inflation is judged to have peaked. Progress on underlying disinflation continues, supported by the still restrictive stance of monetary policy.” The MPC appears to have left the door open for a rate cut in December if, as stated by Governor Bailey, “the durability in disinflation is confirmed in upcoming economic developments.” The wildcard remains the 26th November budget. Expected tax rises are likely to further dampen growth, investment and employment. Immediately following the decision, traders were still pricing in about a 62% chance of a cut in December.

Eurozone government bond yields edged higher on Wednesday, reversing earlier declines as overall risk sentiment improved following a recent sell-off in technology stocks and the release of several encouraging economic indicators.

According to a survey published on Wednesday, the eurozone economy expanded in October at its fastest pace since May 2023, breaking away from the subdued growth seen earlier in the year as service-sector activity accelerated and demand conditions improved. 

The eurozone wage growth tracker, also released on Wednesday, indicated that wage growth is expected to slow into 2026 before rebounding to remain at modest levels, reinforcing the ECB’s projection for moderate consumer price pressures.

Last week, the ECB Governing Council held interest rates steady during its regular policy review, reiterating that its monetary stance remains in a ‘good place’. Speaking at a conference on Wednesday, Banque de France Governor François Villeroy emphasised the importance of maintaining flexibility regarding future interest rate decisions.

The yield on the German 10-year Bund rose by +2.1 bps to 2.677%, while the two-year Schatz — typically more sensitive to changes in inflation expectations and monetary policy outlook — climbed +2.2 bps to 2.008%. At the longer end, the 30-year Bund yield rose +2.2 bps to 3.261%.

The yield spread between German Bunds and 10-year UK gilts reached 178.8 bps on Wednesday and was +1.9 bps over the past week.

The 10-year French yield was higher, +2.1 bps, to 3.459% on Wednesday. The yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds was 0.4 bps narrower from the previous week's 78.6 bps, settling at 78.2 bps.

Over the past seven days, the German 10-year yield was +5.2 bps. Germany's two-year bond yield was +1.5 bps, and, on the longer end, Germany's 30-year yield was +4.5 bps.

The spread between US 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds is now 148.3 bps, an expansion of 3.2 bps from last week’s 145.1 bps.

The spread between Italian BTP 10-year yields and German Bund 10-year yields stood at 119.9 bps, a significant 47.0 bps expansion from 72.9 bps last week. The Italian 10-year yield was +51.8 bps over the last week, after trading +50.0 bps higher on Wednesday to 3.876%.

What happened to Italian bond yields? It’s likely that Italian banks significantly reduced their holdings of 10-year BTPs in order to increase their deposits in the ECB’s deposit facility, thereby strengthening their reserve positions.

As ING highlighted, liquidity in the eurozone banking system remains high but is unevenly distributed, with German and French banks holding the bulk of excess reserves. Since the start of 2025, excess reserves have fallen from €2.9 trillion to €2.5 trillion, continuing a gradual decline from their 2022 peak. 

German and French banks maintain reserves far above their minimum requirements, while Italian banks hold much less. Expectations are for reserves to stabilise between €1.5 trillion and €2 trillion, though desired levels vary by country. 

The current environment shows little pressure on banks to seek ECB liquidity, with more significant behavioural shifts anticipated in late 2026 or early 2028. Money market rates remain stable, and short-term funding stress is modest, despite some tightness in US markets. The ECB is expected to provide further guidance on liquidity operations by mid-2026.

Commodities

Gold spot -0.57% MTD and +51.65% YTD to $3,979.02 per ounce
Silver spot -1.40% MTD and +66.22% YTD to $47.97 per ounce
West Texas Intermediate crude -2.04% MTD and -17.04% YTD to $59.64 a barrel
Brent crude -2.35% MTD and -14.90% YTD to $63.54 a barrel

Gold prices advanced on Wednesday as investors shifted away from riskier assets in favour of safer haven assets.

Spot gold climbed +1.20%, reaching $3,970.02 per ounce. Gold prices are +1.26% over the last seven days, and are -0.57% so far this month. Year-to-date, gold prices have risen +51.65% due to a combination of factors such as escalating geopolitical tensions, expectations of monetary easing, increased central bank purchases, efforts toward de-dollarisation, and robust ETF inflows.

Oil prices reached their lowest levels in two weeks amid mounting concerns about a potential global surplus. However, signs of robust US fuel demand helped limit the extent of the losses.

Brent crude futures finished the session 80 cents, or -1.24%, lower at $63.54 per barrel. US WTI crude settled down 62 cents, or -1.03%, at $59.64 per barrel. This week, WTI and Brent prices are -1.19% and -1.94%, respectively.

The drop in oil prices followed the release of US government data indicating a rise in crude inventories during the previous week. Additionally, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's budget proposal, unveiled on Tuesday, suggested that Canada may eliminate its cap on oil and gas emissions, intensifying concerns about a possible oversupply in the market.

Despite Kazakhstan's crude oil production, excluding gas condensate, falling by 10% last month to 1.69 million barrels per day (bpd), it remains above the OPEC+ output quota, according to industry sources cited by Reuters. 

In Russia, the Black Sea port of Tuapse has suspended fuel exports according to Reuters. Russia ' s oil refinery ceased crude processing following Ukrainian drone attacks on infrastructure last Sunday.

EIA report. An increase in imports combined with subdued refining activity contributed to a rise in US crude oil inventories last week, according to the latest EIA report on Wednesday. For the week ending 31^st October, crude inventories expanded by 5.2 million barrels, reaching a total of 421.2 million barrels. The EIA also reported that crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub grew by 300,000 barrels over the same period, while net US crude imports advanced by 867,000 bpd.

Market participants are closely monitoring an impending cold weather system expected to hit the US in the coming days, which could potentially elevate demand for distillate fuels. During the week, refinery crude runs increased by 37,000 bpd. However, overall refinery utilisation rates declined by 0.6 percentage points to 86%.

US gasoline inventories fell 4.7 million barrels to 206 million barrels. Gasoline stocks in the Midwest dropped to a record low, influenced by operational disruptions at BP’s 440,000 bpd refinery in Whiting, Indiana. Last month, a fire resulting from an operational incident led to the shutdown of several units at the facility, though operations have since resumed. Additionally, gasoline inventories along the US Gulf Coast fell to their lowest levels since October 2024.

Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, declined by 643,000 barrels to 111.5 million barrels, based on EIA figures. Total product supplied — a key indicator of demand — fell by 926,000 bpd to 20.36 million bpd during the week. Gasoline demand eased by 49,000 bpd to 8.87 million bpd, while distillate demand experienced a modest increase of 130,000 bpd, reaching 3.71 million bpd.

Note: As of 5:00 pm EST 5 November 2025

Key data to move markets

EUROPE

Thursday: German Industrial Production, Eurozone Retail Sales, and speeches by ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel, Vice President Luis de Guindos, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel
Friday: German Trade Balance, and speeches by Dutch Central Bank Governor Olaf Sleijpen, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, and ECB Executive Board Member Frank Elderson
Monday: Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
Tuesday: German and Eurozone ZEW Current Situation and Economic Sentiment Surveys
Wednesday: German CPI, and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices

UK

Thursday: BoE Interest Rate Decision, Minutes, Monetary Policy Report and Summary, MPC Vote Rate, and a speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey
Friday: A speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill
Monday: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales, and a speech by BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli
Tuesday: Average Earnings, Claimant Count Rate and Change, Employment Change, ILO Unemployment Rate, and a speech by BoE External Member Megan Greene

USA

Thursday: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labour Costs, and speeches by Fed Governor Michael Barr, New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem
Friday: Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, Labour Force Participation Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls, U6 Underemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations Indices, UoM 1-year and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations, and speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and Fed Governor Stephen Miran
Tuesday: Veterans Day
Wednesday: Speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson

CHINA

Thursday: Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance
Saturday: CPI and PPI

JAPAN

Monday: Current Account

Global Macro Updates

October US labour and services data signal resilience amid uncertainties. In October, ADP private payrolls exceeded expectations, rising by 42,000 m/o/m compared to the consensus forecast of a 38,000 increase. Growth surpassed the revised September decline of 29,000, which was previously reported as a decrease of 32,000. This represents the highest monthly gain since July, following two consecutive months of negative readings in August and September. Year-over-year pay growth remained steady, with job-stayers experiencing a 4.5% increase and job-changers seeing a 6.7% rise. Job growth was concentrated in sectors such as trade, transportation, and utilities, which added 47,000 jobs. Education and health services added 26,000 jobs, financial activities came in with 11,000 jobs, natural resources and mining with 7,000 jobs, and construction with 5,000 jobs. Conversely, declines occurred in information, which lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services with a decrease of 15,000, other services losing 13,000, leisure and hospitality with 6,000 fewer jobs, and manufacturing with a decline of 3,000. 

The majority of hiring occurred within large establishments, referring to those with 500 or more employees. Medium and small-sized businesses reported net job losses. The report highlighted that hiring remains modest compared to last year, and the stable pace of pay growth indicates a balanced labour market.

Additionally, the October ISM Services Index registered at 52.4, which surpassed the consensus estimate of 51.1 and was up from September’s 50.0 reading. This marks its highest level since February 2025.

The New Orders Index also climbed m/o/m to 56.2 from 50.4, reaching the highest point since October 2024. Eleven industries reported growth in October, one more than in the previous month. The Employment Index edged up to 48.2 from 47.2, though it remained in contractionary territory for the fifth consecutive month. The Prices Index rose to 70.0 from 69.4, while the Inventories Index increased to 49.5 from 47.8.

Respondents indicated that overall business conditions are generally stable across industries, though tariffs and uncertainty surrounding government actions are emerging as significant challenges. Concerns over a potential government shutdown are creating anxiety within management and support services, with the possibility of furloughs if the situation continues.

SCOTUS questions scope of emergency tariff powers. As noted by Axios, several analysts have highlighted a generally skeptical tone from Supreme Court justices during Wednesday's oral arguments concerning the challenge to the US President's tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). 

Chief Justice Roberts suggested that tariffs might be analogous to taxes, which fall squarely within the legislative powers of Congress. Justice Gorsuch raised concerns that such an interpretation could lead to a ‘one-way ratchet’ of expanding executive authority, while Justice Barrett questioned the rationale for including countries like Spain and France in an emergency declaration. The Court's decision is now pending and could be announced within weeks or months.

The prevailing consensus is that the Supreme Court is likely to affirm the lower-court rulings against the broad application of emergency powers. This would potentially introduce uncertainty regarding trade agreements established by the US administration and raising the possibility of refunds for tariffs already collected. It is important to note that tariff revenues have served as tools for deficit control and an adverse ruling may cause increased issuance of longer-term federal debt. Nonetheless, there is also acknowledgement that the president retains several other statutory avenues for imposing tariffs, including authorities granted under Section 232 and Section 301.

While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of this information, LHCM Ltd. (hereafter known as “EXANTE”) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this publication or any of the information, opinions, or conclusions contained in this publication. The findings and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of EXANTE. Any action taken upon the information contained in this publication is strictly at your own risk. EXANTE will not be liable for any loss or damage in connection with this publication.