Earnings Scoreboard - From capital markets discount to premium

Big Six re-rating, streaming, healthcare and the industrial engine — themes that define this week

Fortress balance sheets and capital markets momentum. Banks enter Q2 earnings with an unusually clear capital-planning backdrop. In late June, all 32 institutions passed the Fed’s 2026 stress test. This assumed a scenario of about $708 billion in hypothetical losses, 10% unemployment, a sharp property-market downturn and a 58% equity-market drawdown. The Fed also froze each firm’s stress capital buffer through September 2027 while it reviews the framework, leaving capital requirements unchanged. Capital-return announcements followed quickly: JPMorgan raised its dividend 10% to $1.65 and authorised a $50 billion buyback;Goldman Sachs lifted its payout 11% to $5.00; Citigroup raised its dividend 12% to $0.67 and announced a $30 billion repurchase programme; Wells Fargo increased its dividend 11% to $0.50; and Bank of America will announce its plans with results this week.

Q2 capital-markets activity is being driven by three reinforcing forces: a recovery in M&A as corporate confidence and equity valuations stabilise; a reopening IPO window, highlighted by the SpaceX listing; and resilient leveraged-finance and debt-capital-markets activity as private equity begins to deploy more than $2 trillion of undeployed capital. Together, these trends should support positive y/o/y capital-markets revenue growth across the five reporting banks. The key variables are the timing of M&A advisory fee recognition, Goldman’s ability to sustain equities strength after a record Q1 and whether investment-banking fees are building toward an H2 2026 acceleration sufficient to justify the capital-markets recovery premium now embedded in bank valuations.

Streaming’s new season. Netflix’s Q2 print is an important reference point in the broader debate over how streaming media businesses should be defined and valued. With subscriber acquisition largely established at roughly 302 million paid memberships globally, the focus has shifted to the quality of monetisation. Netflix must convert hundreds of millions of monthly active viewers into a more predictable advertising revenue stream, while increasing average revenue per user through disciplined pricing, tier design and live event programming that strengthens engagement.

Pharmaceuticals R&D premium stress test. The Q2 healthcare earnings narrative is shaped by a productive tension between innovation and transition. On one side, the sector is benefiting from an exceptional pipeline of transformative therapies and technologies, including oncology cell therapies, pulsed field ablation devices, GLP 1 successors and oral peptides for inflammatory conditions. On the other, this commercial momentum is being partly offset by biosimilar pressures and the market’s broad discount on large cap pharmaceutical earnings profiles. Johnson & Johnson’s Q2 results will therefore serve as this week’s highest profile test of whether its post Stelara portfolio can deliver structurally faster growth, or if a strong product base is merely offsetting a patent cliff that still has several phases ahead.

Industrials and Materials re-rating stories. GE Aerospace and Steel Dynamics together provide an important measure of the industrial economy. A guidance raise from GE Aerospace, combined with firm steel pricing, would support the case for broader cyclical improvement in H2. It would reinforce confidence across the machinery, aerospace and domestic metals complex. GE Aerospace’s Q2 results form part of a long-term industrial compounding story built on physical assets that depreciate, require maintenance and generate recurring service demand. Its $170 billion commercial services backlog represents future revenue that customers using CFM or LEAP engines are unlikely to forgo. For investors, the central question is whether the margin profile of that backlog is continuing to compound. This makes Q2 operating profit margin the key test of whether recent improvement is sustainable or simply reflects services mix timing. Steel Dynamics offers a direct read on the domestic industrial policy shift in the US. Tariffs have kept foreign steel, as a share of US consumption, near multi year lows. Reshoring demand, infrastructure investment and data centre construction have supported domestic steel prices at margins rarely sustained by the industry. The Columbus aluminium mill adds further optionality. If Steel Dynamics can apply the same cost discipline and quality standards in aluminium that it has demonstrated in steel, its earnings multiple could move closer to specialty materials producers rather than traditional commodity steelmakers.

This week’s preview: capital markets momentum, Netflix next episode, biotech premium and reshoring tailwinds

Major Earnings on the Docket

▪ Bank of America is scheduled to report Q2 results before the bell on Tuesday, 14 July. Bank of America is the purest Net Interest Income (NII) repricing story in the group and the most rate-sensitive. This means its NII is more directly correlated with the level and shape of interest rates than peers.

Consensus expects EPS of $1.13, up 26.8% y/o/y and 2 cents above Q1 EPS of $1.11, which was the highest in nearly twenty years. In Q1, management raised full- year NII growth guidance to 6% to 8% y/o/y from 5% to 7% and flagged lower deposit costs of 1.47%, with the fixed-rate repricing tailwind that extends throughout years.

This week’s key questions are whether Q2 operating leverage exceeds the guided 250 bps, NII lands at the high end of the range and trading extends its multi-year streak.

NII as the Q2 anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield elevated and the Fed maintaining a higher-for-longer stance through Q2, the fixed-rate asset repricing tailwind that has been building since 2023 should continue to support NII. Results should show sequential growth consistent with the 6% to 8% full-year guidance, driven by ongoing repricing across the $500 billion fixed-rate securities and loan portfolio. An additional upward revision to NII guidance would be a clear bullish signal. It would extend the compounding narrative into 2027 and validate the bull case CEO Brian Moynihan has outlined for three years. The Street expects NII growth of 10.1% y/o/y to $16.149 billion, reflecting an expansion of 15 bps in Net Interest Margin (NIM) to 2.09% from 1.94% a year prior.

On 9 June at Morgan Stanley’s US Financial Conference, co-president Jim DeMare said Global Markets was set to beat the initial 15% y/o/y growth target for Q2. The Street is sceptical, anticipating $6.639 billion in revenue, or 11.0% growth. Investors will also watch whether Global Wealth and Investment Management, which posted record Q1 revenue of $6.712 billion, continues to compound. Consensus expects 12.7% y/o/y growth on $6.691 billion of revenue.

Credit risk remains benign. In Q1, the provision for credit losses fell 9.7% to $1.337 billion, $172 million below estimates, and the net charge-off ratio improved by 6 basis points to 0.48%. A continuation of that benign trend in Q2 would provide counter-evidence to the bearish consumer thesis. Conversely, any deterioration could be read as confirmation that the consumer bifurcation thesis is playing out at both the credit and spending levels.

Capital return is the near-term catalyst investors will be monitoring most closely, as BofA remains the only major bank that has not yet increased its dividend following the stress test. The Board of Directors is expected to meet alongside the company’s Q2 earnings release, making the event a key focal point for BofA’s latest dividend and broader capital-return announcements.

▪JP Morgan also reports Q2 results on Tuesday. Consensus has pencilled in EPS of $5.59, implying a y/o/y increase of 6.6%, on NII y/o/y growth of 10.2% at $25.684 billion, and NIM of 2.47%, an improvement of 4 bps from 2.43% the year prior. Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) is expected to be 21.47%, an increase of 47 bps from Q2 2025, but a sequential decline of 153 bps from Q1’s 23.00%. JPMorgan revised its full-year 2026 NII guidance downward in Q1, from $104.5 billion to $103 billion, while keeping its ex-markets NII guidance unchanged at $95 billion. JPMorgan enters the print from a position of strength, having ended stress-test week with a 10% dividend increase to $1.65 and a new $50 billion buyback authorisation, while holding roughly $40 billion of excess capital as it prepares for a G-SIB surcharge rising toward 5.2% by 2028.

Three drivers matter. First, NII as the architecture of the Q2 setup. The expected sequential decline in Q2 NII, expected as deposit repricing in a lower-rate environment, reduces the spread on short-duration liabilities. The critical variables are whether the ex-markets NII trajectory is tracking in line with the $95 billion full- year guide and whether the Fed's rate path has shifted that number in either direction since Q1. Second, will capital markets maintain momentum? In Q1, JPMorgan claimed the number one global rank in investment banking fees, with Investment Banking & Trust revenue of $2.871 billion representing y/o/y growth of 31.8% and the highest fee total since 2021. CFO Jeremy Barnum characterised the pipeline as resilient heading into Q2. Confirmation that the pipeline converted into a reopening IPO window would be a strong signal for the Big Six. Third, management’s commentary on credit quality will be closely monitored, particularly regarding an expected $2.982 billion in provision for credit losses for Q2 and evolving consumer spending patterns.

JPMorgan's commentary on the economic outlook will carry outsized significance for the market. In Q1, CEO Jamie Dimon cited ‘an increasingly complex set of risks’ including geopolitical tensions, price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. while still acknowledging the economy’s resilience. His Q2 framing will shape how the market interprets and prices that uncertainty.

▪  Wells Fargo reports Q2 at the same time as JP Morgan. Wells Fargo reports its first clean y/o/y comparison since the Fed lifted formally terminated the broader enforcement framework of its asset cap on 5 March. This was the most important structural change in its investment case. The removal of this cap is widely regarded as a pivotal, enabling Wells Fargo to expand its average earnings assets beyond $1.95 trillion for the first since 2018.

For Q2, average earnings assets are forecast to grow by 15.6% y/o/y, reaching $2.038 trillion. Analysts expect EPS to be $1.72, reflecting a 7.2% y/o/y increase. NIM is projected at 2.44%, representing a decrease from 2.47% in Q1 and 2.68% in the same quarter last year. However, NII is anticipated to rise to $12.376 billion, up 5.7% from $11.708 billion a year prior. For Q2, RoTE is anticipated to be 15.32%, an increase of 12 bps y/o/y and a sequential q/o/q increase of 82 bps.

In Q1, management reaffirmed its $50 billion full-year NII guidance and 4% to 6% loan and deposit growth outlook. Buybacks are now running at nearly $5 billion per quarter, alongside a quarterly dividend that was raised 11.1% to $0.50 from $0.45 after the Fed completed its 2026 supervisory stress test process on 24 June. Investors will focus on whether NIM stabilises. They will examine whether higher- fee businesses, including investment banking, trading and wealth through the Premier initiative, continue to gain share as CEO Charlie Scharf redeploys freed capital toward non-interest income. Consensus expects non-interest income to rise 3.7% y/o/y in Q2 to $9.351 billion.

Q2 is the first full earnings cycle in which management can discuss growth acceleration without the constraints of the asset cap, particularly across credit cards, wealth management, commercial banking and corporate investment banking. These are the four areas where Wells Fargo had been structurally disadvantaged. The print will therefore be the clearest test of whether regulatory relief can translate into genuine balance-sheet growth. Results showing above- guidance loan growth and a stable-to-improving NII outlook would validate the post-cap re-rating story.

▪  Goldman Sachs Q2 report on Tuesday is the Big Six’s geared play on the capital- markets recovery. The Street has pencilled in EPS of $14.51, up 33.0% from $10.91 a year ago. RoTE is anticipated at 17.25%, a sequential q/o/q decline of 405 bps from Q1’s 21.30%.

Goldman’s Q2 print will be shaped primarily by the recovery in the deal cycle. Goldman remains a leading advisory franchise, and the reopening of the IPO market, with the SpaceX listing as the marquee transaction, should directly support Equity underwriting and Advisory revenues. The direction of the backlog will be the key forward indicator, particularly after it edged lower heading into Q1. For Q2, investment banking fees are expected to rise 31.5% y/o/y to $2.881 billion, following $2.840 billion in Q1.

Global Banking and Markets should show a more normalised revenue mix after an exceptional Q1. Equities trading revenue reached an all-time high in Q1, rising 27.1% y/o/y to $5.326 billion. With the most acute phase of market volatility now past, Q2 is expected to moderate sequentially, although consensus still looks for 17.4% y/o/y growth to $5.051 billion.

Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) was softer in Q1, declining 8.9% y/o/y to $4.011 billion amid weakness in rates and mortgages, making the Q2 read on spring volatility particularly important. FICC revenue is projected to increase 7.8% y/o/y to $3.737 billion. Asset and Wealth Management should provide further stability, supported by record assets under supervision and rising management fees. Management and other fees are expected to grow 13.6% y/o/y to $3.187 billion.

As the purest investment-banking franchise, Goldman’s commentary on the advisory pipeline and the IPO calendar is a direct proxy on whether the corporate- activity cycle has genuinely turned, a perspective that colours equity market’s broader appetite for risk and issuance into H2.

▪  Citigroup on Tuesday is the transformation story reaching its proof point. Q1 was a milestone: EPS of $3.06, above a $2.65 estimate, up 56.1% y/o/y, and a RoTE of 13.10%, the highest since 2021 and above the 10% to 11% 2026 target. At the 7 May Investor Day, CEO Jane Fraser raised the medium-term ambition to 11% to 13% RoTE for 2027 and 2028 and 14% to 15% in the medium term. She also unveiled a new $30 billion buyback. The Street now models $10.95 of EPS for the full year, with the quarterly dividend just lifted 11.7% to $0.67 after the stress test.

For Q2, RoTE is anticipated to be 11.27%, following Q1’s 13.10%, the highest since 2021, with an increase of 39.7% y/o/y in Q2 EPS at $2.74. This pace of EPS growth is among the fastest of any large-cap bank and reflects the combined effect of operational leverage from the Jane Fraser transformation, buyback-driven share count reduction and a structural improvement in the Services franchise that is compounding at rates that peers cannot easily replicate. NII is projected to reach $16.009 billion, reflecting a 5.5% y/o/y increase, along with a NIM of 2.46%.

There are three things to watch. First, Services, which encompasses Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) and Securities Services, were described by CEO Fraser asthe ‘crown jewel’. In Q1 with new client mandates up 40%; sustained TTS share gains are the anchor of the bull case. TTS serves multinational corporations managing cash, liquidity and trade flows across 95 countries in a way that is difficult for other banks to replicate at scale. For Q2, Services are anticipated to moderate to $5.770 billion from $6.103 billion in Q1.

Second, Markets and Banking segments. For Markets, which crossed $7 billion for the first time in a decade in Q1 at $7.246 billion, Q2 will show whether that was structural share gain or a high-water mark from exceptional trading conditions. The Street anticipates a sequential moderation in Q2. However, the commodity trading tailwind from oil market dislocation likely extended through May and early June, supporting FICC performance. Q2 Markets revenue is expected to be $6.289 billion. Banking revenue, however, is projected to be $1.782 billion in Q2, following Q1’s $1.767 billion, as the M&A pipeline converts and Equity and Debt underwriting activity picks up. Citi's specific focus on Healthcare and Technology M&A advisory, combined with its Global Emerging Markets debt underwriting capabilities, gives it a differentiated positioning within the capital market recovery.

Third, the transformation itself. With approximately 90% of programmes at or near target state and the consent orders reportedly nearing resolution, Q2 will update the market on whether transformation costs are continuing to fall. Any indication that the run-rate cost savings from transformation are beginning to flow through to the efficiency ratio will be a direct positive for the 2026 and 2027 earnings trajectory.

Finally, the Banamex IPO, expected to complete in H2 2026, will also free up capital that can be redeployed toward buybacks or balance sheet growth in Citi's higher- returning business lines. A clean Citi print sustains the argument that this is no longer a turnaround but an execution story.

▪ Morgan Stanley is scheduled to report Q2 earnings on Wednesday before the bell. It rounds out the Wall Street cohort with the sector’s most fee-rich, capital-light model.

The Q2 2026 setup is constructive, with Institutional Securities revenue projected at $9.637 billion, marking a 26.1% y/o/y increase. Within this segment, Investment Banking revenue is expected to reach $2.390 billion, representing a 55.2% growth compared to the prior year. Wealth Management revenue is forecast at $8.694 billion, up 12.0% y/o/y. Investment Management is anticipated to decline 1.3% y/o/y to $1.533 billion. EPS are expected to be $2.93, up 37.7% y/o/y. RoTE is projected at 22.36%, up from 18.20% a year ago, but lower than 27.10% in Q1.

Under CEO Ted Pick's strategic framework, Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management business is the ballast of a multi-year re-rating story premised on achieving $10 trillion in total client assets. The segment generated $8.519 billion of revenue in Q1, up 16.3% y/o/y at a 30.4% pre-tax margin. Total client assets exceeded $9.3 trillion at the end of Q1. Continued net-new-asset momentum and a margin holding near 30% are what allow the market to pay a premium multiple.

Institutional Securities represents the principal source of upside. In Q1, Equity trading revenue increased by 24.7% to a record $5.148 billion, while Fixed Income revenue rose by 29.0%, supported by heightened volatility and stronger client activity. Management has also pointed to a renewed Investment Banking cycle, driven by a pipeline of large-scale IPOs, including the SpaceX listing, alongside a re- engagement of financial sponsors and prime brokerage balances at record levels. The key questions for investors are whether the trading gains can be sustained as volatility moderates and whether advisory and underwriting activity will confirm a durable turn in the deal cycle. Capital return is now a less contested issue: Morgan Stanley cleared the stress test, raised its quarterly dividend by 13.8% to $1.15 and authorised a new $20 billion share repurchase programme, supported by a 15.1% CET1 ratio.

Morgan Stanley offers a clear read of both wealth-management momentum and the capital markets recovery. If results show sustained inflows and stronger conversion of the Investment Banking pipeline, they would reinforce the case for its fee-based model to trade at a premium to money-centre banks.

▪ Johnson & Johnson reports before the market opens on Wednesday, opening the Healthcare season and providing the market with a defensive anchor in a volatile week. Consensus expects adjusted EPS of $2.85, up 3.1% from $2.77 a year earlier, on revenue of roughly $25.021 billion, up 5.4% y/o/y. For full-year 2026, the company has guided to a sales midpoint of $100.221 billion and EPS of $11.40. The stock has been an unexpected momentum name, outperforming the S%P 500 by more than 14 percentage points year-to-date. This has raised the bar for a print that is typically judged on stability rather than surprise.

Two engines drive the print. The first is Pharmaceuticals, where consensus expects revenue of $16.099 billion, up 5.9% y/o/y. The key signal is whether growth from newer products can offset Stelara biosimilar erosion. Stelara revenue is expected to fall 62.8% y/o/y to $615.5 million. In Q1, Johnson & Johnson still grew Pharmaceutical revenue 11.2% y/o/y, supported by ten double-digit-growth brands and a deep launch pipeline including Tremfya’s expansion, Rybrevant and Carvykti in oncology, Caplyta in neuroscience and Spravato; all of these are expected to grow more than 30% y/o/y in Q2. Confirmation that these launches are outpacing the Stelara patent cliff is central to the Pharma story.

The second engine is Medical Devices, where the Street expects revenue of $9.011 billion, up 5.5% y/o/y. Cardiovascular is the main driver, with revenue projected to rise 10.4% y/o/y to $2.552 billion, supported by the Abiomed and Shockwave acquisitions and electrophysiology products. Q2 will be the first full-scale commercial quarter for several of these products, making Medical Devices Q2 growth rate a key test of the segment’s sustainability. Management has guided for Medical Devices to accelerate meaningfully through the rest of 2026 as the full commercial launches of the OTTAVA surgical robotic system, VARIPULSE Pro and TECNIS PureSee intraocular lens gain momentum. However, both segments remain exposed to policy risks, including potential Section 232 pharmaceutical tariffs, most-favoured-nation drug pricing and the persistent talc-litigation overhang.

Johnson & Johnson offers a clear read on a defensive healthcare name and whether innovation can offset the biosimilar cliff. A clean beat, alongside reaffirmed or raised guidance, would reinforce the sector’s appeal as a defensive position against macro headwinds. A miss driven by Medical Devices softness or cautious Pharmaceutical commentary would suggest the defensive trade is less secure than the stock’s year-to-date run implies.

▪  GE Aerospace reports on Thursday before the open. The Street expects EPS of $1.86, representing 12.2% y/o/y growth, and revenue of $11.864 billion, up 16.9% from a year earlier. Q1 exceeded expectations across the income statement and cash flow. New Orders Value rose 87.0% to $23.000 billion, and FCF reached $1.658 billion, above the $1.392 billion estimate and 15.0% higher y/o/y.

Two engines of the story. First, the aftermarket super-cycle, supported by the LEAP engine franchise. Q2 Commercial Engines and Services (CES) revenue is expected to rise 14.9% y/o/y to $9.184 billion. The segment’s operating income is projected at $2.472 billion, with the Q2 operating margin expected to improve by 193 bps to 29.86% from 27.93% in Q1. The fact that all Q2 shop visits were already off wing, meaning every engine scheduled for overhaul in the quarter is already in maintenance, provides GE Aerospace with unusually high visibility into CES revenue for Q2. The spare-parts cycle is similarly robust, with 95% of Q2 spare-parts revenue already in backlog at the time of the Q1 call.

Through its joint venture with Safran, CFM International, GE produces the LEAP engine, which powers the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX. This has become the dominant narrowbody engine globally by installed base. In 2025, CFM delivered a record 1,802 LEAP engines. GE has guided to 15% additional LEAP delivery growth in 2026. The order book further reinforces the durability of the cycle, with a CES backlog of $170 billion within a total backlog near $s210 billion. Major Q1 wins included more than 300 LEAP-1A engines for American Airlines, 300 GEnx engines for United Airlines and 60 GEnx engines for Delta Airlines.

The second driver is the trajectory of guidance at the high end of range. At Q1, management indicated that full-year performance was trending toward the high end of all guidance ranges. This included adjusted EPS of $7.10 to $7.40, operating profit of $9.850 billion to $10.250 billion and FCF of $8.0 billion to $8.4 billion. With the July Farnborough Airshow likely to serve as an order catalyst and demand remaining resilient, the market appears positioned for a full-year guidance increase. The renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain the key caveat, as they may give management reason to maintain a more cautious stance for one additional quarter.

GE Aerospace offers a clear read on the commercial aerospace recovery and the aftermarket cycle that continues to lead it. A beat accompanied by higher guidance would strengthen the read-through to the broader aviation complex, including Boeing, RTX, Safran and Howmet. It would also support the industrials-led broadening thesis and dovetails with Delta’s Q2 earnings message that demand has never been greater.

▪ Netflix is scheduled to release Q2 earnings after the market closes on Thursday. Consensus anticipates Q2 revenue of $12.580 billion, up 13.6% y/o/y and EPS of $0.79, an increase of 9.4% y/o/y. Management is expected to guide a Q2 operating margin of 32.6%, down from 34.1% a year ago, and a sequential decline from Q1’s 33.3%. This is because content-amortisation growth is front-half-weighted this year on the timing of title launches. The full-year frame is unchanged: revenue of $50.700 to $51.700 billion, a 31.5% operating margin and, critically, advertising revenue roughly doubling to $3 billion. FCF guidance for the full year was raised in Q1 to $12.5 billion, up from the original $11 billion estimate. This reflected the aftertax benefit from the termination fee received when Netflix stepped back from its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery.

Netflix has moved into advertising more forcefully than the market initially expected. At its May Upfront presentation, the company said its ad-supported tier had surpassed 250 million global monthly active viewers, up from 190 million in Q1, a 31.6% sequential increase driven by new subscriber growth, migration from premium plans and broader geographic rollout. More than half of new sign-ups now choose an ads plan. Management also reiterated its goal of roughly doubling 2026 ad revenue to $3 billion. This implied that the business, which generated $1.5 billion in 2025, is now running at roughly $700 million to $750 million per quarter and continues to grow.

After Q1, Netflix announced discontinued reporting subscriber numbers and shifted its core disclosures to revenue and Average Revenue per Member (ARM). As a result, the Q2 print will centre on ARM convergence between the ad-supported and ad-free tiers. The Street will look to whether advertising CPMs can narrow the revenue gap between a $6.99 ad-supported subscriber and a $22.99 premium subscriber. At its May Upfront, Netflix introduced several monetisation tools, including an Audience Insights API, a Reach Curve API for campaign forecasting, expanded data clean-room partnerships and programmatic buying for pause ads and live programming. These tools are intended to improve advertiser returns and support higher CPMs, which measure the cost paid for every 1,000 ad impressions and are central to Netflix’s path toward ARM parity across tiers.

Netflix shares are down double-digits year-to-date. This underperformance has been driven by the governance transition following the board-level leadership changes announced in H1 2026 and growing market scepticism about whether the premium content cost structure is compatible with the margin expansion narrative. Q2 gives Netflix a chance to reset the story: if operating margin meets or exceeds the 32.6% guide despite peak content amortisation, it would show that the business can sustain 30%+ margins through the year’s highest-cost period. This would weaken the bear case for structural margin compression.

▪ Steel Dynamics reports after the market closes on Monday, 20 July. On 17 June, the company issued its Q2 earnings guidance. Consensus estimates point to Q2 EPS of $3.69 on revenue of $5.570 billion, representing 22.0% y/o/y growth. The guidance includes a $16 million reduction linked to asset write downs from the relocation of a planned satellite aluminium recycled slab centre from Arizona to Columbus, Mississippi. This restructuring indicates that management is prioritising the long-term margin efficiency of its emerging aluminium business over short term geographic convenience.

The EPS consensus implies y/o/y growth of 83.6% from the $2.01 reported in Q2 2025. This reflects the combined benefit of tariff supported domestic pricing, structural reshoring demand and the early contribution from the Columbus aluminium mill. Management’s June guidance was notably constructive on Steel Operations as selling values increased faster than scrap costs during Q2. This allowed metal margins to expand sequentially. Demand from construction, manufacturing and infrastructure customers also remained robust. At the same time, US steel imports have stayed near multi-year lows because of tariffs, supporting the view that protectionist trade policy has established a pricing floor for domestic producers. For Q2, Steel Operations revenue is expected to reach $3.922 billion, a 19.7% y/o/y increase.

The relocation of the aluminium slab centre to Columbus, Mississippi, where Steel Dynamics’ primary aluminium flat rolled mill is located, is more strategically significant than the write down headline suggests. Once fully operational, the Columbus complex, with three cold mills and the Continuous Annealing and Solution Heat treatment line, will allow Steel Dynamics to produce aluminium body sheet for automotive, beverage can and aerospace applications at a scale and cost structure that positions it as a credible challenger to Novelis, Arconic, and imported aluminium products. In Q2, two cold mills were operational, the third was expected to qualify in July and the Continuous Annealing and Solution Heat treatment line was shipping for customer qualification. For Q2, Aluminium revenue is projected to be $347 million, from $227 million in Q1.

Management’s commentary on customer qualification timelines, automotive original equipment manufacturer sampling progress and the aluminium segment’smargin trajectory will be the most forward-looking item of the Q2 call. This will indicate when and how quickly the aluminium segment can become a meaningful contributor to consolidated earnings. Capital returns continue through a $170 million quarterly buyback and a $0.53 dividend.

Firm pricing commentary and a smooth aluminium ramp would strengthen the investment case for the domestic steel complex, including Nucor and Cleveland Cliffs, while also reinforcing the broader reshoring and data centre construction theme.